Yeah, I think that the majority part of it is to do with map size, but tech parity is another factor which I think is more common in a mod game.
|
[SPOILERS] Lurkerloos and map discussion
|
|
I think Serdoa is badly underestimating the strength of Lewger in the coming era. The age of sail is going to be artificially long in this game and Dutch Indiamen will rule the seas. Also, they get Moai Statues in every city! They won't win, but they'll be a factor.
Sorted total beakers (data from Pindicator): 17.9k Slowcheetah 16.3k Serdoa 16.0k Commodore 14.8k Plako 12.7k Scoopin 12.5k Lewger Bold Predictions: Commodore hits his Astro slingshot, boats Serdoa's twin towers and becomes the clear leader. Lewger digests Azza, cleans up Serdoa's remaining Western cities (which are severed from his true core by Commodore) Commodore annexes Zululand while Serdoa dies. Plako takes Brick's land, and chunks out of Cheetah Final finish: 1. Commodore 2. Plako 3. Lewger
Odds that Commodore doesn't win this?
Playing: PB11
(March 3rd, 2012, 21:07)antisocialmunky Wrote: Civilization Economics: You have 1 Cow. You build some pastures around it to feed your people. The population grows uncontrollably. You enslave everybody and work half of them to death. 
A lot depends on how Commodore chooses to play this out. If he doesn't fuck with Serdoa, and instead goes at France and scooter to own the southern half of the world (plus what he can scavenge from azza), he might force a concession in the next 50 turns without too much risk.
If he tries to bulldoze through Serdoa...he is about to reach the point where Mids aren't actually that useful, and he already has a pretty good shrine city. He wouldn't add much to his empire unless he took over all of Serdoa's land and that gives him all of Serdoa's problems, on top of the current target on his back. Given a choice between fighting Serdoa or scooter, I'd attack scooter most of the time, especially given the differences in military their respective empires can produce. Serdoa meanwhile has to deal with finishing off Xenu and making that land both productive and defensible (read: naval supremacy whilst in a tech hole, never easy) and then turn on Bigger to cripple him for a future conquest. Then there is Plako. If anyone starts a war with France, Plako is in prime position to take a good chunk of France without over extending provided he can reach Astro in a timely fashion. Plako has no real beef with Serdoa and vice versa, war between those two players just ins't going to happen. Plako who is basically finished with killing one civ, has a ton of cities and doesn't have a lot else to concentrate on. Commodore has choices, and arguably decides how the rest of the game is going to be played out, but he doesn't have it won yet. Oh, and France is also researching Astro, right? Still plenty left in this game.
France played a great game but I think has hit the point where he doesn't know what to do with his situation and he will suffer from a lack of clear focus. Maybe he has it and it doesn't show because of his lack of reporting but I think he's got potential that, unfortunately, won't be realized.
Serdoa gains nothing from an offensive war with Commodore. Doesn't matter that much what he can do, if doing it is of no benefit. And even then, Serdoa would have to deal with the potential of an army on galleons attacking backline cities. Serdoa isn't going to do anything to Commodore.
Serdoa gains a) stopping Commodore from winning the game, b) keeping his other fronts safe. Other players wouldn't mess with Serdoa while he is fighting the main contender to win the game.
Actually - who is really going to attack Serdoa? For Plako Slowcheetah is a better target, for Slow - Scooter, Bigger is going for culture win. It looks like Commodore is the only real danger for Serdoa. |
