RB PBEM #1 - Mehmed (SPOILERS!)

[Krill]

You can build cannons and take out mh uber quick, and instead you are planning on building UoS?

[Dreylin]

Hey Ruff,

Don't forget:
Dreylin was the first to Liberalism
Dreylin grabbed Steel for free
Dreylin offered both to Ruff... 9-)

Heading for Nationalism, as discussed. From there, I don't really know ... may depend whether I can get anything set up with athlete - our new NAP proscribes Spy missions without approval, so I'll not be stealing Feud, Guilds, Banking, etc. Nat is de in 3t at 100%, but I can only maintain 90% with your gold. That drops it to 3.1t, so I'll see what I can do to generate the couple of extra beakers needed to get there in 3t. Sadly, that is also after my GA as ended, so I may decide against switching.

Cannons started in 7cities. Longest build is 4t in two of them, while Bursa can turn out 2 in that time, so if you can cope without Iron until t107 that's how I'll play it.

Dreylin II.

[Dreylin]

As well, not instead. 8Cannon vs 10Cannon in 4t, does it really make that much difference?

[Krill]

That's probably spoiler info if I answer. Question: how long to bomb down mhs' front city, how many to collateral everything down so you have awesome odds with jans, and then how many left over to defend with at full health afterwards?

[Dreylin]

t104 -

Izmir completes Granary, starts Courthouse.

Confucianism successfully spread into Samsun & Diyarbakir.

Frontline tiles at Bursa should switch back to my control next tun now that Bursa's borders have popped 3rd Ring. I shuffle a few Workers to speed up my ability to re-farm the key irrigation tile.

4Cannon due next turn, so time to switch to Theocracy. Will save me 2gpt, and stop Izmir picking up a "worng" religion. Shame that Konya's first Cannon won't see the benefit - I consider switching to a Jann and delaying finishing until next turn, but I can get a second Cannon out in the next 3t ... strike that, only 2t of GA left so Konya's output will drop significantly. OK, switch builds to a Jann, and will switch back next turn. Looks like with overflow I will finish both in 3t.

Tweak tiles at Istanbul to keep Sankore at 2t. Ankara is about to grow with no additional improved tiles to work, Cannon is currently due in 2t, but if I double-whip then I can get another out within the 3t Iron deadline, so I do that (Ankara grows back fast).

After discussing research with Ruff earlier, I dial it down to 0% and run a turn of gold - should give me enough to get the rest of Nat in 2t at 100% afterwards.

mh force in Vienna:
3x Longbow
2x Landsknecht
1x Maceman
4x Catapult

Glorious Ottoman Expeditionary Force in Bursa:
5x Jannissary (another in-transit, 1 to come from Konya, and probaby 1 from Bursa while waiting for Cannon to assemble)
3x Horse Archer
5x Catapult
1x Axeman
1x Chariot
1x Spearman

[Dreylin]

Athlete has a plan ...

Hey Andy,

OK so I finally got some to look at this. Here's what I figure (Everything is rounded in your favour for the most part):

Spy's cost 26 Hammers each. For the purposes of this deal you will be allowed 4 attempts at stealing technology. Assume 1 fails and 3 are successful. You are down 26 Hammers with atleast 1 spy still available to use for what you want (on me or anybody else), you may have built more than 2 spies so lets assume you have built 3 to use for the 4 attempts with a loss of 1 spy. You've spent 78 Hammers and only have 52 left.

Guilds and Economics are roughly 2300 beakers and lets add a 3rd technology in there such as printing press or something so we'll add another 1500 beakers for 3800 beakers. Now I don't know what all the multipliers are for researching techs but you get discounts for pre-reqs and other races that know it etc...+ your own buildings and what not so lets cut that in half. So you're stealing 1900 beakers.

You're losing your ability to see my territory etc...however you're gaining tech so I balance the lost opportunity vs the gain as even.

I'm going to assume if you convert those hammers previously mentioned to beakers it would double. So you spent 78 hammers which could have been put into research so those count as 156 lets round down for simplicity sake to 150. However I'll add another 50 for the lost spy (opportunity cost) so 200. Now I'm not sure if my logic works here but if you had put that 200 into research you'd only be stealing 1700 (maybe it's the other way around you'd be stealing 2100 depending on what you research but lets credit it in your favour for now :-0).

So in order for you to be allowed to steal tech from me you must agree to the following:

Grant me one tech of your wish (which I do not have, obviously) with a base beaker value of no more than 1700 (I get bonus to my research as well). The tech to be granted is at the sole discretion of Dreylin, but I must be granted a tech. The time of the grant has to be made no later than immediately after successfully stealing the 2nd tech. If the 2nd tech was stolen on an attempt prior to the 4th Dreylin may still complete up to and including the 4th attempt. If any changes are to be made after the agreement is made regarding the tech to be granted to me, the changes must be in my favour. This is all to be completed no later than T120 and even if 4 attempts were not made no further attempts will be allowed under NAP current or forthcoming.

This is a rough outline/guesstimate of what I think is fair. It's open for discussion and modifications at this point if you want to negotiate anything or come to more exact figures. I tried to make it as clear as possible as to what I might expect from you and vice versa so if you want to agree immediately you can. However if there's something glaringly wrong in that you know something I don't (due to superior knowledge/understanding of civ) I would expect you to not take advantage of me, for instance no tech of beaker value of 1700 or less would be available to me by the time you completed the 2nd steal. I don't think that would happen but just in case :-).

Those were my thoughts on it if you were to steal guilds/economics +1. I'm not saying you have to steal those but that's how I (roughly) calculated the figures. Beaker values I just got from loading the save, hitting F6 and scrolling over the techs in question.

Let me know what you think,

Taylor

So everyone follows that, right? Good.

Taylor,

Um.

Still trying to get my head around this suggestion and parse out all the implications!

It may take me a little while to figure out the logistics of doing something like this, as well as the opportunity cost. Fortunately, we've got a few days while mh is away. I'll think on it more tomorrow and try and get back to you soon.

Regards,

Andy.

[Dreylin]

Mostly a delaying tactic so I can chat with Ruff about the possibilities & benefits, but there's also some more info needed:

Taylor,

OK, I had some time and took a long look at this. What I think you're suggesting is this:

Dreylin gets: 4 Tech steal attempts
athlete gets: ~1700b tech

A few questions immediately spring to mind:

1) you say that all attempts have to be made by t120, that is quite a short period for me to train 4 Spies, walk them to your territory and then allow them to sit to accumulate discounts - infact I'd probably have to get them all out in the next 5t to have a chance, and that would require some hefty effort changing my builds around. Would it be possible to extend the window at least to t125 and the end of our current NAP.
2) You are using as a benchmark 3/4 success rate; what if I were to succeed the first 3 times, would I get to take the fourth?
3) One of your aims in this is to have my EPs reduced to a level where I am unable to maintain city visibility; with enough failures, this may not happen. What would the implications be of that instance?
4) You receive the tech even if I make less than 2 successful steal attempts, correct?

I am still trying to determine whether the deal would be beneficial, or just a straight tech-trade would be more in my interests. Which reminds me; with your signing of a new NAP agreement with mh, does that mean you will continue to be part of the mh/sooooo tech arrangement, or will Ruff and I have a chance to compete with them for your research?

Andy.

[Dreylin]

Hmmmm, well pretty-much as I expected on the questions he answered....

Hi Andy,

Let me just respond to the spy stuff for now.

1) Sure T125 is fine. I might consider this negotiable to T130 if our NAP is extended to match that as well (this is not an offer just letting you know the option might be there) but I would need to review quite a bit in game info first.

2) If you succeed the first 3 times then I think it's fair you get to attempt the 4th.

3) Right now a bonus for you. I think we can discuss this further if it actually happens unless you wanted it ironed out before.

4) Yes.

I'll get you further answers to your other question(s) either tonight or later this weekend.

Taylor

[Dreylin]

t105 - OK, so we're back from mh's Honeymoon, what's going on ... oh yes, we're going to welcome him back with Cannonfire!

Ankara: Cannon - Cannon
Bursa: Cannon - Cannon
Samsun: Cannon - Jann
Diyarbakir: Cannon - Jann

Last turn of Golden Age.

Conf. Missionary spreads in Konya, so switch back to Cannon. Whip Sarmatian's Forge for cheaper growth & adjust tiles at Istanbul again.

4 Cannon start their way towards Bursa. 1 due next turn, with another 4 the following turn - also 3 Janns.

Guard Archer kills another Barb Warrior in SE.

Research back up to 100% for Nat in 2t.

The Spy watching mh's approaches sees two Knights on their way. I realise that she is standing on a Forested Hill tile, and if I sabotage the road it would create a roadblock for reinforcements ... hmmmm, something to consider.

[Dreylin]

A quick message from athlete following up on the previous conversation:

Andy,

Did you get my initial response to this e-mail? With the game going again it would be nice to get something ironed out quickly if it's going to happen.

Taylor

Taylor,

Yes, I got your response to the Spy stuff, and was waiting for you to get back to me on the rest....

Andy.

Getting stuff ironed out cuts both ways - especially since he'd committed to replying to the rest of the e-mail promptly.