[SPOILERS] Serdoa, Ichabod and Ex-Girlfriends - co-starring NH,Bigger and Lewwyn

[NobleHelium]

We killed a stray longbow outside the city flawlessly.

[NobleHelium]

Okay here's the situation.




Not sure why you'd promote the regular longbows to C1 and then the GG (correctly) to CG, but whatever. Anyway we get ~22% odds with a C1 knight, ~27% with a C2, and ~11% with a green knight. That tells me that C1 hits a breakpoint so we should use a C1 on the GG. Looking at it further though it's kind of iffy to attack with the knights this turn...should probably do some simming. We don't know how much fortify is on those longbows either which is annoying.

[NobleHelium]

Okay so we've got one CG3 longbow with no fortify, one C1 longbow with 20% fortify, three longbows with no fortify, and two longbows with at least 5% fortify. Worst case we have:

1 CG3 longbow
3 C1 longbows with 20%
2 C1 longbows
1 green longbow
1 maceman
1 C1 spearman with 25% fortify
4 catapults
Total 13 units

Offensively we have:
2 shock knights
3 C2 knights
6 C1 knights
2 green knights
Total 13 units...

Okay so clearly we can't take the city. It may be worth it to attack if we can kill some catapults but we should probably either move next to the city and likely get catted, or possibly send the knights west and bypass this city. Hmmm.

[NobleHelium]

Okay, so it looks like we would typically kill one catapult and end up with eight knights left, out of 13 attacking knights. We could get really lucky and kill all the catapults, but I've had a few pretty terrible failures that leave a lot of longbows alive. I also checked the results on them catting us and even if we move the knights separately, four cats isn't going to do enough damage to get any sort of good odds.

So I think I recommend that we group up with the entire stack on the pig this turn, possibly attack next turn or move the knights 2W to fork both cities. I don't think it makes sense to move the knights two tiles this turn since we can't reach the other city next turn anyways. I'd pillage the pig because there is a decent possibility that we won't be able to take this city for a while.

Oh and I also asked Ichabod for a city name because you seem to have run out. Gaspar also gave me a lengthy list...

[Serdoa]

Well, there is another mace on the way to the city, and BaII has Construction so he can reach it next turn. That's another 8 + 40% = 11.2 unit. So another one we don't get odds on, even with Knights. We can try to kill it with our stray Knight though, we have even over the river 63.5% and can move it to not attack over it.

Else I would attack tbh. He will get another unit in at least, maybe more. It won't get better. Certainly we can instead not attack that city at all.

edit: Ok, I attacked the mace at 75% odds. Lost the Knight and he is just down to 6.2. WOW that was a terrible loss to encounter. I'll go to work now instead of playing on, have to think. Maybe we should just offer peace, maybe ask for a city and come back with drafted rifles in 15 turns. I don't think we'll get much further without producing more troops. What we certainly can, but I doubt it really makes sense.

[NobleHelium]

Uhm well I'm confident that he doesn't have much defense in his city to the left. If you want to withdraw I'm fine with that, but we should definitely take the island city before offering peace.

[Serdoa]

I thought about asking for that island-city + maybe the city to the west for peace. Though I also so before logging out that we will have a few more Knights in range in 2 turns (exactly 8+the GG)

[NobleHelium]

I don't see why he would give us the city to the west for peace. Not to mention that we have no idea what city that is. If you want to offer peace for the island city I'm fine with that of course, but don't be surprised if he doesn't accept. Too often people get into the arrogant mindset that their victim is just sitting around waiting for the first peace deal that comes.

yuris and WK signed peace with no transfer of cities.

[NobleHelium]

I drew up a plan to attack the island city, we use the nearby knight and spearman in Martina. We'll need to land before attacking (I think the axe gets odds on the knight if attacking off boat once it has fortified a bit), but he won't be able to whip a unit in time if we aren't seen. I marked the hills that are visible, make sure not to move units there.

We may want to consider not asking for the island city via peace and just attacking instead. Asking may alert him to the fact that the city is in danger, and I'm not sure he's going to take peace regardless. The city doesn't have any buildings so we'd only be getting one more population and skipping three turns of revolt.

[Serdoa]

Ok, I'll move them forward on the pig this turn. Maybe he does cat us.