The Playoff Race
I'm going to revive the playoff race updates from last year - thanks to sunrise for the suggestion. We've got 3 weeks left, and amazingly, all 12 teams are still (technically) in contention for one of the 8 playoff spots, and nobody has clinched a spot yet. Let me start with the rules for making the playoffs:
1) Two division winners get #1 and #2 seed
2) Next best 6 records regardless of division get seeds #3-#8
3) All ties are broken by total points for - H2H results are not a factor. So if there's a tie for any seed, the seed goes to the team with more points scored during the season.
I'm going to try to tier players into groups on their likelihood of making the playoffs, as well as detail what they have to do to get in. Also, all players below are numbered based on their true position in the standings, accounting for tiebreakers. So #8 is the current "last man in." I'm going to put record in parenthesis, Points For in brackets.
The Locks
1) Wetbandit (7-3) [1065]
2) scooter (7-3) [937]
I actually could have clinched this past week, but a loss to sunrise delayed that. Either of us clinches with just a 1-2 finish, OR both Lewwyn/Sunrise failing to go 3-0 the rest of the way. Even if one of us goes 0-3 and Lewwyn/Sunrise win out, there are a variety of other ways for us to clinch involving multiple losses from the 3 guys sitting at 5-5, but we'll revisit that if necessary in a future week. Wetbandit holds a 130 point edge over me, so he's got the inside track on the top seed. He's actually the only player in the entire league to have crossed the 1K mark in the 10 weeks of the season we've had.
In Good Shape
3) Pindicator (6-4) [909]
4) Kuro (6-4) [904]
5) Sir Bruce (6-4) [860]
Pindicator and Kuro are in pretty good shape. 2-1 should make either of them pretty safe since they also have pretty significant score edges over most of the 5-5 guys. Both of them play the 5-5 Noble, which will be two of the more crucial games over the next few weeks. For either of them, 1-2 would probably still do it if the one win comes against Noble.
Sir Bruce on the other hand needs to go 2-1 a little more than the other two. There are 3 guys at 5-5, and all of them have at least 860 points, so Bruce won't get the tie-breaker that Pindicator or Kuro are likely to get. He can of course still get in with 1-2, but he'll need some minor help. All 3 of these guys can theoretically get in by going 0-3, but it's going to require help and some levels of luck.
All 3 of these guys are able to clinch with a win combined with a Lewwyn AND Sunrise loss. Win and Lewwyn loss almost clinches due to large score advantages over Sunrise.
Bubble: In
6) NobleHelium (5-5) [921]
7) DavidCorperial (5-5) [878]
8) Cyneheard (5-5) [860]
For starters, 3-0 is enough for any of these guys to clinch. So all three of them do "control their own destiny" to use the usual sports cliche. 2-1 would make Noble essentially a lock, because his points total gives him a nice tie-breaker edge. Noble's problem is his remaining schedule is actually pretty difficult, he has Pindicator, Wetbandit, and Kuro remaining. Interestingly, none of these guys play each other over the next 3 weeks. In fact, there's a lot of big matchups between the 6-4 group and this 5-5 group. DavidCorperial actually plays BOTH of the 4-6 guys in the next group, so just winning 1 of those 2 games is probably enough to get him in, but losing both would put him in a tough spot. Pretty much every game these 3 participate in over the next 3 weeks is going to carry a lot of weight.
Bubble: Out
9) Lewwyn (4-6) [968]
10) Sunrise (4-6) [822]
First, Lewwyn's rotten luck deserves its own paragraph. That score of 968 makes for the 2nd best total in the entire league, and yet here he is on the outside looking in. Personally, as someone looking at a #1 or #2 seed possibility, I want nothing to do with a Lewwyn matchup in the first round, because his team has consistently scored well despite losing close game after close game. This is the second year in a row this has happened, too. Crazy stuff.
Anyway, all that said, Lewwyn has a real good shot at getting in here. Lewwyn's final 3 games reads: scooter, Twinkletoes, DavidCorperial. If he wins 2 of those, he's probably in, because he currently holds a comfortable tie-breaker over every one of those 5-5 guys, even Noble. As crazy as it sounds, he could probably sneak in even if he only wins 1 of them, because one of the 5-5 guys going 0-3 isn't that improbable. 3-0 for Lewwyn clinches, because he does play the 5-5 DavidCorperial in the last week who sits only a game ahead, and he easily has that tie-breaker in hand.
Sunrise is a pretty different story since he doesn't have that huge points edge Lewwyn has. However, Sunrise has the softest (in terms of records) schedule out of anyone that I can see, with Twinkletoes, DavidCorperial, and Gaspar on the schedule. He's got a pretty good shot if he wins 2 of those, but due to his low score, he can still easily definitely miss the playoffs with 2 wins. He really needs to go 3-0 to feel great about his chances.
Still Alive
11) Twinkletoes (3-7) [818]
12) Gaspar (2-8) [771]
First off, Gaspar needs to go 3-0 against Kuro, Sir Bruce, and Sunrise and put up a lot of points in the process to have a shot, because he's quite a bit behind all the 5-5 guys in points. He's mathematically still alive, but he's the longest of longshots unfortunately. The last week matchup against Sunrise could be a big spoiler opportunity.
Twinkletoes is more doable, particularly with his schedule of Sunrise, Lewwyn, and Pindicator. He basically needs to win both of the first 2 games, but if he can pull that off, he's got a real good shot in the last week. Unfortunately, his score is also pretty far behind, so he's probably going to lose out on tie-breakers to anyone not named Sunrise. 3-0 very well might get him in, but 2-1 and he'll need quite a bit of luck I imagine.
Week 11 Matchup Summary
Noble vs Pindicator: Neither can clinch, but the winner will essentially be a lock.
scooter vs Lewwyn: Win and in for me. Losing doesn't kill Lewwyn, but it certainly makes things a lot harder for him and would make the 5-5 guys sleep better.
Twinkletoes vs Sunrise: Loser is not eliminated, but close. Winner is still on the outside looking in.
DavidCorperial vs Sir Bruce: Loser is firmly on the bubble. Sir Bruce could clinch with a win and both the 4-6 guys losing.
Gaspar vs Kuro: Gaspar could significantly increase the drama by pushing Kuro nearly into bubble territory with a win here. Kuro is in great shape with a win.
Cyneheard vs Wetbandit: Win and in for Wetbandit. Cyneheard is firmly on the bubble with a loss.
Biggest game in terms of how much it swings things is probably my game against Lewwyn, solely because a Lewwyn win puts all the 3 of the 5-5 guys at serious risk because of his tie-breaker status, and it also prevents all the 6-4 guys from clinching at the same time. A Lewwyn loss means we probably end up with several clinches, so proponents of general chaos should be rooting for Lewwyn over the next few weeks. I'll try to plan to do something like this for the next couple weeks, but it'll probably be a bit shorter. Enjoy the games this weekend.
I'm going to revive the playoff race updates from last year - thanks to sunrise for the suggestion. We've got 3 weeks left, and amazingly, all 12 teams are still (technically) in contention for one of the 8 playoff spots, and nobody has clinched a spot yet. Let me start with the rules for making the playoffs:
1) Two division winners get #1 and #2 seed
2) Next best 6 records regardless of division get seeds #3-#8
3) All ties are broken by total points for - H2H results are not a factor. So if there's a tie for any seed, the seed goes to the team with more points scored during the season.
I'm going to try to tier players into groups on their likelihood of making the playoffs, as well as detail what they have to do to get in. Also, all players below are numbered based on their true position in the standings, accounting for tiebreakers. So #8 is the current "last man in." I'm going to put record in parenthesis, Points For in brackets.
The Locks
1) Wetbandit (7-3) [1065]
2) scooter (7-3) [937]
I actually could have clinched this past week, but a loss to sunrise delayed that. Either of us clinches with just a 1-2 finish, OR both Lewwyn/Sunrise failing to go 3-0 the rest of the way. Even if one of us goes 0-3 and Lewwyn/Sunrise win out, there are a variety of other ways for us to clinch involving multiple losses from the 3 guys sitting at 5-5, but we'll revisit that if necessary in a future week. Wetbandit holds a 130 point edge over me, so he's got the inside track on the top seed. He's actually the only player in the entire league to have crossed the 1K mark in the 10 weeks of the season we've had.
In Good Shape
3) Pindicator (6-4) [909]
4) Kuro (6-4) [904]
5) Sir Bruce (6-4) [860]
Pindicator and Kuro are in pretty good shape. 2-1 should make either of them pretty safe since they also have pretty significant score edges over most of the 5-5 guys. Both of them play the 5-5 Noble, which will be two of the more crucial games over the next few weeks. For either of them, 1-2 would probably still do it if the one win comes against Noble.
Sir Bruce on the other hand needs to go 2-1 a little more than the other two. There are 3 guys at 5-5, and all of them have at least 860 points, so Bruce won't get the tie-breaker that Pindicator or Kuro are likely to get. He can of course still get in with 1-2, but he'll need some minor help. All 3 of these guys can theoretically get in by going 0-3, but it's going to require help and some levels of luck.
All 3 of these guys are able to clinch with a win combined with a Lewwyn AND Sunrise loss. Win and Lewwyn loss almost clinches due to large score advantages over Sunrise.
Bubble: In
6) NobleHelium (5-5) [921]
7) DavidCorperial (5-5) [878]
8) Cyneheard (5-5) [860]
For starters, 3-0 is enough for any of these guys to clinch. So all three of them do "control their own destiny" to use the usual sports cliche. 2-1 would make Noble essentially a lock, because his points total gives him a nice tie-breaker edge. Noble's problem is his remaining schedule is actually pretty difficult, he has Pindicator, Wetbandit, and Kuro remaining. Interestingly, none of these guys play each other over the next 3 weeks. In fact, there's a lot of big matchups between the 6-4 group and this 5-5 group. DavidCorperial actually plays BOTH of the 4-6 guys in the next group, so just winning 1 of those 2 games is probably enough to get him in, but losing both would put him in a tough spot. Pretty much every game these 3 participate in over the next 3 weeks is going to carry a lot of weight.
Bubble: Out
9) Lewwyn (4-6) [968]
10) Sunrise (4-6) [822]
First, Lewwyn's rotten luck deserves its own paragraph. That score of 968 makes for the 2nd best total in the entire league, and yet here he is on the outside looking in. Personally, as someone looking at a #1 or #2 seed possibility, I want nothing to do with a Lewwyn matchup in the first round, because his team has consistently scored well despite losing close game after close game. This is the second year in a row this has happened, too. Crazy stuff.
Anyway, all that said, Lewwyn has a real good shot at getting in here. Lewwyn's final 3 games reads: scooter, Twinkletoes, DavidCorperial. If he wins 2 of those, he's probably in, because he currently holds a comfortable tie-breaker over every one of those 5-5 guys, even Noble. As crazy as it sounds, he could probably sneak in even if he only wins 1 of them, because one of the 5-5 guys going 0-3 isn't that improbable. 3-0 for Lewwyn clinches, because he does play the 5-5 DavidCorperial in the last week who sits only a game ahead, and he easily has that tie-breaker in hand.
Sunrise is a pretty different story since he doesn't have that huge points edge Lewwyn has. However, Sunrise has the softest (in terms of records) schedule out of anyone that I can see, with Twinkletoes, DavidCorperial, and Gaspar on the schedule. He's got a pretty good shot if he wins 2 of those, but due to his low score, he can still easily definitely miss the playoffs with 2 wins. He really needs to go 3-0 to feel great about his chances.
Still Alive
11) Twinkletoes (3-7) [818]
12) Gaspar (2-8) [771]
First off, Gaspar needs to go 3-0 against Kuro, Sir Bruce, and Sunrise and put up a lot of points in the process to have a shot, because he's quite a bit behind all the 5-5 guys in points. He's mathematically still alive, but he's the longest of longshots unfortunately. The last week matchup against Sunrise could be a big spoiler opportunity.
Twinkletoes is more doable, particularly with his schedule of Sunrise, Lewwyn, and Pindicator. He basically needs to win both of the first 2 games, but if he can pull that off, he's got a real good shot in the last week. Unfortunately, his score is also pretty far behind, so he's probably going to lose out on tie-breakers to anyone not named Sunrise. 3-0 very well might get him in, but 2-1 and he'll need quite a bit of luck I imagine.
Week 11 Matchup Summary
Noble vs Pindicator: Neither can clinch, but the winner will essentially be a lock.
scooter vs Lewwyn: Win and in for me. Losing doesn't kill Lewwyn, but it certainly makes things a lot harder for him and would make the 5-5 guys sleep better.
Twinkletoes vs Sunrise: Loser is not eliminated, but close. Winner is still on the outside looking in.
DavidCorperial vs Sir Bruce: Loser is firmly on the bubble. Sir Bruce could clinch with a win and both the 4-6 guys losing.
Gaspar vs Kuro: Gaspar could significantly increase the drama by pushing Kuro nearly into bubble territory with a win here. Kuro is in great shape with a win.
Cyneheard vs Wetbandit: Win and in for Wetbandit. Cyneheard is firmly on the bubble with a loss.
Biggest game in terms of how much it swings things is probably my game against Lewwyn, solely because a Lewwyn win puts all the 3 of the 5-5 guys at serious risk because of his tie-breaker status, and it also prevents all the 6-4 guys from clinching at the same time. A Lewwyn loss means we probably end up with several clinches, so proponents of general chaos should be rooting for Lewwyn over the next few weeks. I'll try to plan to do something like this for the next couple weeks, but it'll probably be a bit shorter. Enjoy the games this weekend.
