As suspected he had 3 units that could defend this from galleys. I haven't ended turn yet and I'll sim this for fun but I pretty sure it's not worth taking this on even if we could scrape it out with heavy losses. In terms of promotions we could get it would be 1CR cat, 5 lb (2 C1 3 G2 or no relevant promotions), 2 axe (1C1, 1C2) vs this. This, if we promote the 2 lbs to G2 so we can double-move them.
What we can do though is put 3 potentially G2 bows on the forest hill 2W of Magic Flute to fork the cities.
The sim says: "just forget about it". Longbows behind city walls are just too strong to grind down without a lot of cats. So:
3 potentially G2 longbows fork his two cities. I can't imagine he has much in the southwest site, and if he tries to zone-defend from the seas we can also jump in and take Bathurst. 2-promo bows can also get Cover.
Also, he's Portugal! And he has a carrack in striking range. Magic Flute has 2 bows so I'm not worried about it, but the control of the sea itself is annoying. Triremes are a completely useless boat here, but I think 2 galleys vs 1 carrack has pretty good odds.
Defensively, with what we have on this island right now, the forces it would take to threaten us are pretty staggering.
You asked about the defense of Suit Up:
We get Engineering in 5. I think that might be a pretty logical point to try and move in on Retep, either that a turn or two after. So really no knights can be spared to go on an anti-Christian-Canadian island crusade.
It annoys me neither Boheme nor Hoffmann have a religion yet! The odds ought to be somewhere from 10% to 20% per turn, and they've been around a long time now. So we've been unlucky with random spreads. But the instant spread to Magic Flute makes up for it maybe. Actually, random spread of Christianity is the best case because then we get a cheap +2 hammer temple, though it does improve Commodore's income.
Turandot is going to start working 2 scientists most of the time. With the free priest from ToA and the 2 GP points from it it's our fastest great person by far, and it would mean a golden age in 18 unless we speed it up even more with an additional priest.
(January 16th, 2014, 11:48)MindyMcCready Wrote: Since it looks like he did a galley chain - where's the galley? Looks like there may be a fast moving galley out there after all.
Good question... The units appear to have moves left so it seems he must have unloaded instead of walking off the boat. He does have Carracks! So he could quite reasonably have some 4-movers around with 2 cargo spaces each.
(January 16th, 2014, 13:10)MindyMcCready Wrote: Well that explains a lot. We may have saved ourselves from a surprise with that all-in on Bathhurst.
Yeah, it's good that he revealed a Carrack to us. Note to self, I should always be aware the Civ I'm up against. It explains why he went for Optics so early. Also it means we really need to defend Trovatore from a potential attack from the fog to the north. Commodore could easily get there over ocean where we couldn't see him coming at all.
Somerset has only the W2 maceman, but it does have walls. 3G2 longbows can attack. I'm going to sim this out and see what the chances are of razing the city with that.
The other problem is the Carrack. It's probably empty, but we have a chance to strike at it with 2 C1 galleys. I need to find out the odds of that working, too.
Not that I have any problem with bloodshed in general, but does your target have to be a unit named after me?
Kidding!
Main purpose of this post is really to say someone's reading and appreciates the detailed reporting Nice to have a part of the world in which I know what's going on.
Although if you were to choose to name a unit after me to replace the one you kill, I wouldn't object...
Thanks! And now I know Commodore's secret for getting lurker posts, get lurkers emotionally attached to their own units.
What the odds of the first fights look like:
The boat fight is pretty much a coinflip I think. The 0 hit and 1 hit outcomes just lose, the followup after 1 hit has 36% chance to win, probably not worth taking. After 2 hits we have a 63% chance, which is painful because we're committed, and it's terrible if we lose the second time. 3 hits wins 86% of the time.
So it's about:
23% lose 1 galley for nothing and quit
10% lose 2 galleys for nothing
57% win, losing 1 galley
10% win outright
This is tough. I'm inclined to wait and chop another galley this turn, but then we might not get another chance like this. But even in a duel, the mean result is to slightly lose the hammer trade.
In the battle for Somerset, it seems pretty obvious it's worth taking 1 combat. If we get 0 hits at 13.7% that sucks but it isn't a disaster. 2 or more hits we probably win with the next 2 bows. 1 hit is worth evaluating more.
An alternative play would be to just move the G2 bow or 2 onto the deer, making the worker and city quite useless until he can dislodge it.
I'm going to let both of these choices sit for a few hours in case of any input.
Failing the outright win, I'm seeing 73.36% of a win with the second galley and 27% loss so that's definately a battle that we should take. It might be an even hammer exchange, but that's the best outcome that we can get with our current technology.
And he has a carrack in striking range. Magic Flute has 2 bows so I'm not worried about it, but the control of the sea itself is annoying. Triremes are a completely useless boat here, but I think 2 galleys vs 1 carrack has pretty good odds.
Nice to have a part of the world in which I know what's going on.