[SPOILERS] Small Wunders and Izzy of Inca: The fat lady sings

[WilliamLP]

I'm thinking of the worst case though. Either losing the first galley and quitting with 0 damage, or losing 2 galleys would be terrible, even if it's only 30 percent of one of these. And in that case we basically lose all ability to have boats in the water anywhere.

The alternative, doing nothing and building a galley means at worst we have a stack of 3 galleys that can still transport units. Attacking with a carrack at any time would be a problem for him because we'd get the coast bonus instead of him, and we'd be able to counterattack.

I think the most likely outcome (~60%) is just good, not great, killing a 60 hammer unit for a 50 hammer one, and a net negative for both of us. And to me, after considering it I don't think the good outcome or the great one (10% of winning) balances for how bad the worst case is.

[MindyMcCready]

Can Carracks tear up fishing nets? If that's the cost of not attacking, then I'd say attack.

[MindyMcCready]

On the 3G2 LBs vs W2 Mace.

Spreadsheet here says:
1.25% chance with the first LB
36.12% with the second LB
78% with the third LB.

So likely situation is we lose 100H of LBs to kill 70H mace + 100H settler (+ 50H walls).

More importantly we deny him the future production related to the deer and copper as well as the extra naval mobility. I'd say take the shot. He'll galley-chain or Carrack chain the units in next turn so you'll only get this one chance.

If we dwell on the worst case, we'd never take a shot. It's just as relevant to dwell on the best case where we just blitz him with no damage. :LOL:

[WilliamLP]

Battle of Somerset:

G2 LB vs W2 Mace (1.2%): Lose, 3 hits
G2 LB vs W2 Mace (49.6%): Lose, 1 hit
G2 LB vs W2 Mace (88%%):




We may lose this bow too, from an amphibious attack, but I'll put enough stuff down to counterattack if so.

The galley war, I'm still really iffy about. If Commodore wants to take the trouble to pillage our mainland nets, he can do this no matter what. Just moving any carrack over the ocean where we can't attack and enter and pillage. It's a zero-gain move for him, but this is Commodore.

[MindyMcCready]

YES! COMMODORE CITY RAZE LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD!!!!!!!!!

[MindyMcCready]

Ok, it might be a little tough right now but I think that we need to get a settler in there ASAP to plant on a hill in that location.

Alternatively, plant on the plains hill for maximum defensibility (no boating) and try to culturally crush Commodore's city.

Let's make his life difficult. Maybe save the gallyes' after all.

[MindyMcCready]

We may lose this bow too, from an amphibious attack, but I'll put enough stuff down to counterattack if so.

If that unit dies, you might want to just let it go. We could keep trading units on that flatland tile for a while.

Better to save a LB or two and try to maneouvre onto that grass-forest-hill and await a settler. That'll screw with him more than trading units will.

[MindyMcCready]

Objectives for this island:

1. Put Master Commodore on the defensive. Right now with those walls in Bathhurst, he can attack out at his leisure safe behind the power of his walled LBs. If we take away that defensive advantage, we'll also cut his mobility.

2. Plant a second city before he does. Our galleys to carracks ratio is likely to get worse, not better real soon given our few naval locations. Taking that location really denies him a naval mobility advantage as well as being a strong city site.

3. We'll need to consider whether we can spare the resources for that fort WW of Travatore. We'll also need to consider planting a fort 2S1W of Magic Flute as a safe zone for galleys coming from Magic Flute.

4. Moai is risky in Magic Flute right now since we can't afford the production and we're not guaranteed to own the island right now (although looking good!). I'd suggest thinking about Moai 3N2E of Magic Flute. Borrows the deer for food and production and works those two hills and a couple of forest chops if we can wait that long.

[WilliamLP]

Ok, it might be a little tough right now but I think that we need to get a settler in there ASAP to plant on a hill in that location.

Alternatively, plant on the plains hill for maximum defensibility (no boating) and try to culturally crush Commodore's city.

I like that suggestion! Magic Flute can chop out a settler fairly soon. The plains hill would be such a troll city, just ignoring the copper and going for a purely defensive location. And it's still a quite decent site in its own right.

I offered peace to Commodore. I'd be shocked if he accepted, but it would be really good for us right now.

Naval situation:




Unfortunately the wounded trireme (hurt from a barb galley) is in a terrible spot. I'd like to heal it in Trovotore, but if it moves towards there it can be free XP, assuming his next move is to move onto the clams. It probably has to go back to Tosca, to help make a stand if he goes east to pillage more coast.

I still haven't ended turn and the galley attack is still available but I'm really leaning on the conservative play.

Meanwhile:




Between the potential staging tiles 2S and 2N1W of Barbiere they each have advantages. But I'm planning on the south one right now, marked "T0". It doesn't need workers since the roads are there already, and it's closer to eastern cities and potentially being able to abort and react to something from Ichabod. (Admittedly the road connection from that tile to the southeast should be better than it is.)

The plan is declare 1 turn after we have engineering. T0 is where we will be at engineering. T-1 (or the same radius) is where the units have to the turn before, where they'll get the additional engineering turns to position.

We have:

T-4: This is now.
T-3: Next turn.
T-2: Revolt to slavery, whip all unfinished knights.
T-1: Knights finish, all participating units move to T-1 tiles.
T0: All units move to T0
T1: Invade.
T2: Either blitz out with knights if Retep's pants are down, or approach. (An advantage of this staging tile is that the invasion allows the knights to be immediately in position for this.)
T3: Either bombard defenses, or suicide + attack Suit Up.

We could probably arrange this one turn sooner but the extra turn gives better micro to get a few more knights out.

How funny would it be if we were in 3 wars at once?

[Ceiliazul]

haven't you been in 3 wars since just about forever?