[SPOILERS] Dip4 Turkish Delight: scooter dies first

[scooter]

Replied to Rowain:

Hey there Rowain, long time no talk . I believe I invited this new email address of yours to chat so we can have each other available. As you know from past games, I'm always happy to chat things over, regardless of whether we end up friends, enemies, or somewhere in between.

How do you feel about our neighbors? I think TT is pretty clued in on the game from playing in past games, but I only know MJW from Werewolf where he is a bit... um, unpredictable. So I have no clue what to expect from him, or if he even knows anything about Diplomacy.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

[scooter]

Reply from Rowain:

I'm sure he will camp the forum profile and count who posts what and when to meta what is going to happen In the game )

Translation: I'll talk to you later, I need to see if I can arrange people to dogpile you first. Ok that's probably unnecessarily fatalistic.

More seriously, sorry Gaspar, I've already forgotten to CC you on these emails. I'll try to remember on future emails.

[scooter]

Sent to Twinkletoes:

Twinkletoes,

Hey there, been awhile! It's been way too long since we had the last Diplomacy game here. Anyway, since we're neighbors, I guess the usual elephant in the room for us is the Black Sea. We may as well start thinking about that I guess. We could arrange to bounce, we could promise to leave it empty and get an early read on how much we trust each other, or we could just let the chips fall however. I'm open to all possibilities, but the last choice doesn't seem like the best way for us to start.

How do you feel about Rowain? I find him to be unpredictable, which makes him a little scary as an ally. I figure he's already hard at work to try to get some revenge on me for beating him in the last game... I don't know how long my game will last, especially given that Rowain offering that probably sounds attractive to a fair few people.

Anyway, feel free to hit me up on chat anytime!

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

I also had a brief little pleasant chat with Rowain that didn't say a whole lot. Few highlights from that:

* He said "I definitely remind people you won the last one "
* He tried to convince me that as Austria he holds no real sway over anyone.
* Also noted that Austria taking down Turkey with help puts Austria in a weird position of having nowhere to go next.

That's about it. My general plan with neighbors is to just downplay my chances this game due to the nature of who my neighbors are and the "target on the back" type stuff. If people actually believe that I believe my chances of winning are unusually low (and I kinda do), that might actually give me an advantage in cutting deals to stay alive. We'll see.

[scooter]

Couple replies came in:

Sorry for being a bit late. I check my email after loging-out. You could offer me a lot of supply centers and that would get me on your side. There's no way I could take out Austria by myself so you would have to help me too. But due to Turkey's position you would do that anyway. I would consider joining you if offer me at least two supply centers.

Reservations about MJW aside, I appreciate the straight shooting. Here was TT's response:

Good day to you both,

BLA is most certainly the elephant in the room, and must really be considered as a crucial chip when it comes to any kind of juggernaut proposal. A bounce seems the most typical way for us to start, but I do abhor cliche. Unfortunately, over 70% of Turkish players go for BLA in the spring so I would need serious convincing to go to Rum instead...

Rowain definitely wants to stop another scooter win, but then if he did then I would question why he is playing the game!

I can see us being one of two things really, natural allies or natural enemies. That's the hand we are dealt as neighbours in this game and so its important for both of us to get the answer to this quickly. I like to keep my word and have no issue with shared victories or long term alliances if both parties pull their weight. I would rather work with you than against you but for that we need trust. I am open to all suggestions on how to reach that point.

We could work together and significantly hurt Rowain, I am not averse to that. But that would also mean hoping to get an unpredictable MJW on side for us to really succeed.

Anyhoo, we may well be putting the cart before the horse here and I need to get some sleep.

Keep in touch,

TT

So that sounds promising to me. I realize he is probably talking like this to Rowain too. The thing with TT is he is very quick to jump on board with some sort of alliance, and he tends to be quite loyal once he's committed to one. To me, this suggests we need to get something going with him quickly if it's ever going to happen.

I don't know if I totally buy the stuff about shared victories and whatever. He's Russia, and Russia is a nation where you immediately start thinking about how you can solo, because it's very doable if the first couple years go well for you. The idea of cozying up to Russia alone is usually a little scary to Turkey because it's hard to undo the Russian monster once you've helped create it... But given Rowain's nature (very good and tricky) and Rowain's position (desperate Austria-Hungary), I am really thinking our best choice may be to just do what needs to be done to execute Austria (promise MJW what he wants, cozy up to TT, etc), and then pick up the pieces afterwards. If I play up the "I may be a dead man walking" angle, I think a Turkish desire to just finish well may be realistic to TT, and we might actually be able to make some sort of an alliance workable.

So there's some initial thoughts. I need to think a little before replying to those messages.

[NobleHelium]

Posting here to set off meta alarm bells from MJW. Not sure what alarms that would be, but I'm sure he'll think of something.

Edit: I also told Gaspar about your thread's existence.

[Gaspar]

Checking in. I'll give some more detailed thoughts after my Civ turn.

[scooter]

Received from Mattimeo (Germany):

Hi scooter,

Just a general greeting, confirming contact details. I don't see us as interacting all that much in the early game. Willing to pass on interesting information if you'll do the same.

Haven't heard much yet, though. Just a general greeting from Rowain.

Sent to TT:

Twinkletoes,

It's a little late here, so I don't want to get too committal in a late-night message, but overall I feel like this was a positive message from you. So for starters, I think we feel pretty similarly about the Black Sea. One caveat is that if we successfully DMZ the Black Sea, our other neighbors may get a little concerned about us, resulting in a strong AI alliance for fear of us. I think we'd both rather see Austria crumble quickly and painlessly. I don't know how I feel about this for sure, I think I'd rather wait for Gaspar to weigh in.

I think us working together would make a lot of sense here. The Russia/Turkey alliance is pretty terrifying when it really gets going. Now granted, it does tend to favor Russia a little more than Turkey, but I think it's pretty workable to balance it out. My main concern is I feel I may be a bit of a target just because I won the last game, so my aspirations in this game are a lot more conservative - I'd mostly just like to avoid an early dogpile and finish in a strong position. So RT alliance is super appealing to me, if I'm being honest.

I did feel out MJW on what he would want to jump on Austria. He asked for 2 centers. So that's an option on the table. Anyway, I'll try to chime in a little further tomorrow when I hear from Gaspar.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

Also replied this to MJW:

MJW,

Thanks for the quick reply. So if we hypothetically did something like that, we would probably want Russia on board to some extent. I don't think a scenario where the two of us are dueling against Austria and Russia is a really great outcome for either of us. What are your thoughts on exploring a quick killing of Austria with Russia? I don't really know what Russia is feeling right now with regards to Austria, but a strong Austria is kind of scary longterm for all of us.

Just spit balling ideas.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

So the main thing with MJW is trying to get a feel for if he plans to move against me or not. I don't feel awesome about that last message, but I needed to send something because MJW obsesses over the stupidest meta reasons and I'm sure even the slightest delay will get interpreted as me lying to him.

[Gaspar]

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote. For the short term, a little harmless buddying in the west while trying to get Rowain out of the picture as quick as possible seems the best option. IMO, TT is by far the most appealing ally of our neighbors. I don't trust Rowain at all and we know MJW is erratic as all get out. Rowain is frankly the scariest player of that group as well, so eliminating him as quickly as possible while we figure out the lay of the land is logical.

The thing with TT is I'd just try and catch him in chat - he'll usually be a little over-exuberant if he's up to something. I'd definitely just bounce in BLA this term if we're befriending him, firstly, there's really nothing he could to on the first turn that I'd take as a sign of enough trust to risk letting him have BLA and secondly, if we can manage juggernaut, then I wouldn't want to tip it off so quickly anyway.

Maybe see if F can get us any idea what I is thinking, but I'd be inclined to take a short term deal with MJW at least. Don't want him to get to strong, of course - if he buddys up with G, he'll be our biggest headache in a post-A world, but we can jump off that bridge when we get to it.

All of that said, I can easily see RA against us, because Rowain will be working the phone lines talking about how awesome you are. So, yeah, I think its all about who can get TT onside first. And at the end of the day, what we have to offer him is much better than anything Rowain can provide.

[Jkaen]

Think I will ded lurk this thread if thats ok with you. Can't really offer much suggestions as I was useless in the game I played of this, but I agree I would be very wary of MJW and his unpredicability.

[scooter]

Sent to Cyneheard (France):

Cyneheard,

We don't have tons to chat about considering we're pretty far away, but I thought I'd drop by and say hello. I guess all that we really have in common is that we both are interested in what Italy does, and given the fact that the leader of Italy is MJW, well good luck to either of us guessing what he does. Do you have any inkling of what he's thinking? All he told me was that he would consider attacking Austria if I promised him at least two centers. I'm assuming anything that involves him going east is fine by you, and you aren't too picky on whether that means east into Austria or east into me. Maybe we can keep each other informed on what we hear of his plans? I'm just trying to minimize the natural unpredictability of MJW here a little bit.

Hope your early talks are going well!

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey