[SPOILERS] The Rise and Fall of Whositania (all glory to Whositania!)

[Whosit]

Wouldn't it still be possible to do some reasonable military C&D once you have someone's graphs? As long as you've been tracking your own numbers in relation to your own graph points every single turn, you'd have a point of reference. That would of course be insanely time consuming, and I'm pretty sure the only reason that the mystical Demogame from ages past had the all-knowing C&D is because all of RB was behind it and they had a whole department of players devoted to the number crunching while other players did planning and played the game.

But... yeah. Seems possible.

I suppose I should try to figure out how soon I can get the worker shit sorted out, but it's probably still going to be several turns even if I prioritize it now. My gut says that my main window of opportunity has passed, but I'm kind of committed to this now, so oh well.

[Whosit]

Dtay looks to be the only one on the scoreboard with a score over 200. Krill/Novice's current score isn't that much higher than mine, but I feel like they must be sandbagging or just horizontal expanding. I mean, they took a city site that really could/should have been mine. Assuming I can even defeat Cheater Hater, I'm very wary that either of them will attack me before I can absorb new cities. Though perhaps, in a very best case scenario, I can set up an alliance with Krill/Novice vs. Dtay.

Dreams. All dreams.

Things to do before I can attack:
1. Chop a forest in neutral territory. (1 turn movement, 3 worker turns)
2. Build a road (2 worker turns)
3. Move troops into position (not hard, but all launch zones are within CH's vision)
4. Build 2 roads on the turn I declare (4 Workers required in place).

Items 1 & 2 are in the same locale.

I have some plans that probably won't make sense to anyone because I don't have pictures, but there's an overview shot in my turn 52 post that I used... anyway.

Turns to do shit.
Current 84

85 - 1 chop finish, 1 moves plains; 2 workers build road elsewhere
86 - 2 move to forest, 1 moves to plains; 2 turns cottage
87 - 2 chop; 1 roads; cottage finish
88 - chop finish (free worker leaves); 1st road finish; all units move to attack. 2nd pair workers move to position (no useful actions to take).
89 - WAR!

It's a little funkier than I'd like and not super elegant, but it's gonna have to do. I'm just glad it can happen before turn 90, but I don't think there's any reasonable way to make this happen faster. I was originally hoping that my road building workers would be out of sight. The ones building the road for my slow troops should be a surprise, but with this setup the chariot attack should be much more obvious than I'd like. I suppose it could be good if CH pulls more units to defend his coast instead of his center, but the slow troops will still take about 3-4 turns to get to where they need to be, so he'll have time to move units and whip. I think that if I can pillage his copper that'll be a reasonable success as long as I defend mine.

Construction is the next tech I'm going to get, rather than Currency. Was tempted for HBR, but catapults are probably better against someone who might go Impi heavy. I don't think I'll actually be able to research it until a dozen turns from now, though.

[Whosit]

Cheater Hater has looked, but not played, so I'm pretty sure that means I can't declare war until he's actually played, because I've been playing after him for the last dozen turns or so. I'll be curious to see what preparations he's made, because as of last turn he must be able to tell that I'm about to declare war.

[Whosit]

Turn 88: WAR!

The hardest part was figuring out how to actually declare the war. Fortunately, Cheater Hater was just visible on the civ list. I suppose I could have tried to enter his territory as well. At the start of the war, he had 9 cities to my 6. Now it's 8 and 7, although I'd bet that his cities are overall stronger.




Tarkir was captured with the LOSS of one Chariot at 79% odds, which I found rather annoying. That's why I'd have liked to have 4 Chariots instead of 3, but beggars can't be choosers. I guess. I chose to keep the city as it's in a nice location and has a Granary. As you can see, there's an Axe that can counter attack, but going across the river it might not win. Of course, there could be Impi in range. Next turn I can get that Axe/Spear pair inside, so I'm going to hope that the city can hold. At the very least, attempting to retake it will draw resources from defending elsewhere, although I'm expecting civ-wide whips from Cheater Hater next turn. I suppose a benefit of going second is that I'll get a chance to act before any whips complete. Mirrodin is a raze target. I really just want to get past it and deny CH's Copper. It all depends on what extra units he can get inside next turn. Razing it will also release some cultural pressure on my new acquisition.

I'm going to do some combat sims, but I expect the situation will have changed by next turn. It all depends on if there are road tiles W or NW of the city, but I bet there are. I know there's at least one more Impi out there somewhere, and CH's power has been climbing steadily for the last few turns, but at the moment I still have a power lead.

Strategic Objectives: Damage the Zulu enough that I can conquer them later. I highly doubt that I can field the forces necessary to completely conquer them now, but if I can lift some cities off of them and maybe raze one or two, I will hopefully be in the stronger position later. I'm betting that my economy is less well developed than the Zulu's, and I have fewer cities and a lot less population, so I'm going to have to make it count.

All Glory to Whositania!

PS: In truth, I expect my attack to stall after Mirrodin, but we shall see.

[Whosit]

If the Archer and Axe remain, it looks like my best bet is to probably just promote everything Shock. The Axe is probably going to be top defender against Combat II or Combat I/City Raider I, anyway, so I might just have to take some slightly less favorable odds against the Archer. If there are no reinforcements, I expect to lose 1-2 units. If there are reinforcements, I will reevaluate. One option is to try and bypass my city to go knock out the Copper, but I think that's far too risky and leaves my own cities vulnerable to counter-attacks. I think that if I have decent odds to take the city, I will raze it and then withdraw if necessary until I can replenish my troops.

[Commodore]

[Ceiliazul]

Good show mate!

[Whosit]

Turn 89: WAR CONTINUES FOR THE GLORY OF WHOSITANIA (ALL GLORY TO WHOSITANIA!)

I feel a little bad after Cheater Hater's comment in the IT thread. Did I stomp on his sand castle? Oh well, them's the breaks. This is war, for survival. For glory!

Lost a Chariot in Tarkir to an Impi on CH's turn, but the second defeated the Axe that was hanging about. That's two Chariots for 2 Axes, not bad. City reinforced with the Axe/Spear.



That's what I'm up against.

I ran three test combats, and I won handily in them all. I doubt that my luck will hold in the real thing, but I think I know the best way to proceed. I know one of those Axes had some fortification bonus but I don't think it's the one that has the Combat I, so that's good. I promote one of my Axes with CR1.

As expected, top defender is still the Archer, and I have 61% odds.


CR Axe vs CG Archer, 61%: LOSE. My Axe only got 1 hit in, so that was about as bad as it could have been. Of course.
Shock Axe vs CG Archer, 78%: WIN
Shock Axe vs C1 Axe, 65%: FLAWLESS VICTORY
Shock Axe vs Axe, 65%: WIN
Shock Axe vs C1 Impi, 99%: WIN
Axe vs Impi, 97%: WIN
City, RAZED



OK, I guess my luck wasn't as bad as I feared.

Whositania Losses: 2 Chariots, 1 Axeman
Zulu Losses: 4 Axeman, 1 Archer, 2 Impi, 2 Cities

Maybe I'll do the hammer/power conversions later, but it's clearly going well for me.


The final Axeman had attacked unpromoted, so now I slapped on some promotions in case he gets attacked. I wasn't really sure what to put on him, but this should cover most bases. I am not sure if CH has Chariots out yet, but I suppose I'll soon find out. I could have deleted him, but he might get a win against anything but a Chariot with those promotions.


All victorious axes are due a promotion, so I think I will promote and march onward. The stack can be reinforced by a couple chariots next turn (I moved two workers onto the forest tile to road it). The real question is whether I should go southwest or southeast. I might be able to pick off and capture that city to the southeast (it's not where I wanted to settle, but this war is to gain territory, so I don't want to raze everything), but if I go southwest, I might be able to deny CH his Copper. I thought I grabbed a screen of the zoomed out battlefield, but apparently not.


Power from this turn, but I'm sure I won't see any changes until next turn. At least CH and I are equal in power now. Heh.

[Whosit]

So, where to go from here? I've got the initiative, and I've delivered a couple body blows, but I haven't won yet, not at all. By my reckoning, I have 2 mature cities producing units, 1 new city making units, 1 commerce city that's going to focus on economic stuff (I keep forgetting to rename the two workers I made a couple turns ago, oops), and 1 brand new city still getting basic infrastructure up. Oh, and one of my cities is size 2 and still in revolt. CH has 7 cities left, and the ones I've taken were newer ones, and I'm willing to bet that his remaining cities are all more well developed than mine, and I'm fighting on his home turf and he's got the whip and higher production.

My original analysis of Cheater Hater said that he could be easily demoralized based on my readings of previous games. I am not sure if that intelligence still holds true, but if any weakness remains in his heart, I think the loss of two cities with such massive losses on his side is going to hurt his morale. Of course, even if he phones it in from now on, I'm still at the strategic disadvantage as explained above. Regardless, I've surely made a life enemy, but that's fine. Only one of us can survive, anyway.

So, march to Theros or Kamigawa? Theros is a more valuable strategic target as it has CH's copper supply (and possesses a Barracks), but he can reinforce it most easily and will surely defend it the most fiercely. Additionally, I would have to raze it, and surely withdraw my forces afterwards, if any survived. Kamigawa is now in a vulnerable location on the fringe of the Zulu empire. I can probably safely capture it, and I expect that Cheater Hater brought most of his extra units to defend Mirrodin. I can reach Kamigawa faster (still plenty of time to whip it a few times, though). Both cities are on hills, so either way I expect to lose quite a bit.

As I said, my stack will be reinforced by a pair of Chariots. I am not sure if they will contribute much, but at the least they are extra bodies to throw at defenders. Tarkir is going to need a few extra reinforcements as well, but I think I can manage that well enough. A bit sad I didn't have an opportunity to pick off that Impi. Actually... I could have, if I hadn't pulled my road workers back. Oh well, not sure it'd have been worth it anyway.

So... as of the moment, I'm planning to hit Kamigawa to capture it. I can probably get vision of it next turn if I move that surviving Axe 1SE, or 1S. I think I'll move him 1S if he's still alive because I'll get vision on both cities. After capturing Kamigawa, I will reassess. I might offer peace for Theros, although I expect CH to reject, of course. Ah, yes... capture gold is fueling my research right now, so I think after I capture Kamigawa (assuming I do), I'll wait for a few Catapults to come online, and then I should be able to resume the offensive. I've no idea what tech Cheater Hater is pursuing, but I should be able to tell when he gets construction if I see any bridges in his territory. Hopefully I beat him to the tech, at any rate.

[Whosit]

Turn 90: THE PROUD SOLDIERS OF WHOSITANIA (ALL GLORY TO WHOSITANIA!) CONTINUE THEIR ADVANCE!

Cheater Hater seems to be playing later and later, and this could end up posing a problem in the near future. I guess I'll cross that bridge when I arrive to it, though. Anyway, on his turn, he sniped that Axeman I left out. I suppose I should have followed my gut instinct and promoted it Formation. Not sure if it would have made a huge difference, but ya never know.

He also whipped 3 of his cities, I believe. Theros was hit with a 2-pop whip, but it looks like Kamigawa was actually spared. Hm. More on that in a bit.

A Barbarian City spawned to the south a few turns ago, and I wanted to see if it's on my dot map. Good ol' John was going to take a look, but....

...He is probably going to die this day. I sent the Warrior from Plano to check it out. Should have vision next turn.

Now, as I began this turn, I first moved out the Chariot reinforcements and found this:

The wounded Chariot that sniped my Axeman, and also... both cities empty! Either this is a devious trap, or this war is going better for me than I thought. I feel like it has to be a trap because I'm not used to anything going well for me. I decided to ignore the Chariot. I'm pretty sure it earned a promotion from combat, but finishing it off means leaving 1 or 2 units off from my stack and I don't think it's worth it. It's hurt, so it will probably retreat to heal, and I'm not awfully worried about a Chariot on the defensive. I am glad I brought a Spearman along, though. Between it and my two Combat I Chariots, my Axemen should be safe.

Next turn, depending on what I see, I plan to move 1S to the plains tile. Although it's flat ground, any 1-mover is going to have to attack across the river at -40%, and that tile still allows me to fork both cities (and have vision). 2 movers can bypass the river, but those are Chariots and Impi, neither of which are a huge threat to my stack, at least not in the numbers I expect CH to have. I know there are at least 2 Impi out there, probably a few more. The power graph showed only a slight dip this turn, and I wonder if it's a turn behind and is only referencing the loss of Tarkir (I plan to rename the city after it comes out of revolt).

Also, I had another thought. I bet Kamigawa was whipped, 1-pop. It probably grew last turn. So each city should have a new unit inside next turn. Let's speculate.

Best chase Scenario in Theros is the injured Chariot and an Axeman (both would no doubt be promoted Combat I). If I had more than 2 chariots, I could probably take that. With only 2, I'd need some lucky rolls. So, whatever. Kamigawa? A City Garrison 1 Archer with no fortification, and probably either an Axe or Impi. Probably an Axe, considering my stack. I don't think a Chariot is going to kill that Archer, so I couldn't take it next turn, but I think Kamigawa is the least likely to have defenders in the fog. However, if Theros sprouts several new defenders, I think I'll just move my stack 1SE so I can hit Kamigawa immediately. If razing Theros looks feasible, I'll do that, but it wouldn't be hard for Cheater Hater to have units hidden to the the west of the city, poised to strike my stack as soon as I move adjacent, so going after Kamigawa is still probably the most sound move. As I said, we shall see....

I whipped an Axe in Avendale so it can reinforce Tarkir (I'm thinking Angle Bay), and as you can see, I'm planning to whip a wall in the city as soon as I can. I think it's worth it as I have Stone. A Barracks will be next to try and secure my culture in the area, but as I don't plan to leave an enormous garrison, the walls should shore up my defenses and will hold until CH can field Catapults.

Now, on to other matters.

I've been slow building a Worker here to ward off whip anger, and I want a Library next to benefit from the Gems and Cottages. I suppose ideally I'd build the Library before I set science to 100% but oh well. I can chop 2 forests, and possibly whip this worker next turn. I think I'd get about 20 hammers of overflow, and each chop is 30, so that's 80 hammers towards the Library over the course of 3 turns. If I shift tiles to work the Ivory instead of the cottages for a couple turns, that should get my enough extra hammers to finish the Library in that time. And, it appears that the Library is worth... 3 beakers. Or so. Not an awful lot, huh? But it will be good to have, and I'd also like the extra culture here to try and help thwart Krill. I really don't want to whip this city so much as I'd like to grow onto all the cottages, but I suppose there are worse things than having a city as a Worker/Settler dump/pump. After the Library, I'll max out the size and start a Settler, I think. Hopefully my micro plans here will work out like I hope.

So....

The settler will probably go to the eastern oasis dot. I expect I'll want to resettle the city I razed, but not now. I might find a better spot for this settler, too, but there's a couple reasons I'd want to settle this spot. In the short term, I think it might be beneficial to have an extra city connecting the "front line" and giving me some more cultural security. In the long run, I'm pretty sure I can run irrigation through it where previously this was a useless desert tile. Granted, this is an absolute filler city. I don't think Kamigawa can survive on just the sheep and cows, both plains. Perhaps I shouldn't settle that location until I have Civil Service.

An alternative spot is one of the tundra locations to the south. My expansion plans at this point are basically: Conquer the Zulu, and expand into the frozen south and fish (looking at you Commodore). Whatever I do, though, I'm trying not to completely ignore expansion during this war. I think that if the next couple of turns go well for me, I'll be in good shape. Hopefully I can capture Kamigawa with minimal losses, build up my forces until Construction is in, and then whip out a round of catapults from everywhere and resume the carnage. I will, of course, try to snipe Theros or its copper supply if I'm given half the opportunity.

War Losses
Whositania Losses: 2 Chariots, 2 Axeman
Hammers: 130
Power: 20,000
Zulu Losses: 4 Axeman, 1 Archer, 2 Impi, 2 Cities
Hammers: 435
Power: 35,000