Realms Beyond (NFL) Fantasy Football 2014-15 - A Noble Fight

[Kuro]

Damn, not only did I lose by 4 points, but my RB situation has totally shattered. Anyone willing to trade an RB?

[scooter]

Annual Big Huge Playoff Update

We have just two weeks to go, so I wanted to take a look at the playoff race, which as usual will be pretty close and exciting. Just as a reminder, the top 8 teams make the playoffs, and tie-breakers is Points-For. I believe the division winners get the top two seeds (although in this case it seems likely the two division winners will also have the best 2 records), but past that divisions don't really matter - pure standings are used for seeds 3-8. So I'm going to do a current combined standings first, then look at the actual race. Record in parenthesis, points-for in brackets.

1) Pindicator (9-2) [1102.2]
2) scooter (8-3) [1145.3]
3) Kuro (6-5) [1064]
4) sunrise (6-5) [1002.3]
5) Cyneheard (6-5) [975.3]
6) NobleHelium (6-5) [962]
7) Cheater Hater (6-5) [943.8]
8) Dtay (5-6) [945.9]
--cutoff--
9) David Corperial (4-7) [1034.6]
10) Twinkletoes (4-7) [960.8]
11) Gaspar (4-7) [960]
12) Wetbandit (2-9) [837.5]


Already Clinched - Pindicator, scooter

We've both banked enough wins to have clinched completely. To go a step further, we've basically locked up our divisions too barring some really poor luck on my side of things. Both of us have matchups against 4-7 playoff hopefuls this week, so the only thing really at stake is the chance to ruin somebody's playoff aspirations.

Note that the #1 seed is still very much at stake. Pindicator is a game up, but I have an edge on the tie-breaker with a 43 point advantage. It's mostly just a bragging rights thing, but still, SUPER IMPORTANT. Final Note: season finale may very well determine the top seed.


Eliminated - Wetbandit

Sorry, wetbandit! Tough season - more on that down at the bottom


Win and you're in - Kuro, sunrise, Cyneheard, NobleHelium, CheaterHater

Simple enough, just 1 win in the final two weeks gets them in. It's also possible for any one of them to get in with 2 losses, but their chances at that point become a question of tie-breakers if any of the 4-7 guys win out.

Tie breakers are a scary thing for this bunch, though, because David Corperial is beating all except Kuro, and Gaspar/TT are well within reach of all but Kuro. Cheater Hater in particular is in some trouble if he goes 0-2 given that he'll almost certainly lose any tie-breaker with the 4-7 guys. NobleHelium is in a similarly bad boat if he goes 0-2. Kuro is still very likely to get in with 0-2 barring horrid luck.


The Bubble - Dtay, David Corperial, Gaspar, Twinkletoes

This is where it gets fun. Dtay owns a 1 game advantage over the group, but DC's great points-for means he is firmly in control of his own destiny. Actually, Dtay and DC both are, because they play against each other this week. The winner of that game is highly likely to make the playoffs, barring very bad luck. David Corperial is out if he loses. Dtay can survive a loss, but will need to win the finale and get some help in the form of a 6-5 team stumbling.

As for the other two, amazingly, they can technically get in with just 1 more win, but it'll take some doing. More likely they need to go 2-0 and get some help. First off, they both play against the top two teams this week (myself and Pindicator), which makes getting to 5 wins a tough task to begin with. The last spot is currently held by either Dtay or DC (depending on this week's game outcome). Dtay holds a game, DC holds a point advantage (may as well be a game), and one of them is guaranteed to win this week. It's mathematically possible for the 4-7 guys to get in with a 1-1 finish, but realistically they are all eliminated with 1 loss.

More realistically, they need to go 2-0 and put up good points while doing so - although winning 2 games generally means you put up good points. The key thing about going 2-0 is it potentially opens things up if some of the 6-5 group stumble to an 0-2 finish, because as discussed above, it'll be surprisingly easy to beat some of those guys on tie-breakers.


Key Game: David Corperial vs Dtay - obviously
Also Watch: NobleHelium vs Cheater Hater - the loser will feel a lot less safe next week with their middling scores if a couple 4-7 teams win. CH is behind all of them, and Noble is basically dead even with them.

----------------


Stray Statistical Notes
* Pindicator has the best record and the second best points-for so he clearly has a great team, but he's also been the luckiest with just 871.6 points against - lucky in the sense that you cannot control points-against at all. 11/12 teams average more than 871.6 points against, so this means he has often caught teams on down weeks.

* Conversely, David Corperial has been tied for the most unlucky so far, racking up 1105.5 points against - 11/12 have scored fewer points than that this year. Pindicator himself in 2nd has gotten 1102.2 points, so DC's season is the equivalent of playing against Pindicator every week. If you're an innocent bystander, this may cause you to root for him to make the playoffs seeing as he probably "deserves" it in terms of total performance (4th in points for), or if you're a contender you may want to root against him seeing as if he makes the playoffs, he's a strong bet to score some upsets.

* Wetbandit's team has struggled the most, but he's also had horrid luck. His 1105.5 points-against is exactly tied with David Corperial for the worst.

* I've got the best score total so far, boosted by a few 1 week explosions of 148.1, 130.8, and 151.3 points - which are also the best 3 weeks turned in by anyone all season. The reason the gap back to Pindicator isn't so big, though, is because these big performances have come with the occasional meltdowns - 68.6 and 64.1 outings all came within 1 week of a point explosion. Pindicator on the other hand has been more consistent - at one point scoring above 90 in 6 of 7 straight weeks, and his 9 games above 90 are comfortably the best in the league.

* The only team currently on track for a playoff position that has been outscored so far this season is Cheater Hater's 6-5 team, where the score has been 943.8-1032.7.

[pindicator]

Great update scooter! Looking forward to our rematch, especially if it ends up as close as the first time we played. (Scooter won by a score of 101.6 - 99 0)

[sunrise089]

Great writeup Scooter! How much would you charge to make one for my 10-team real-life league?

[NobleHelium]

I'd be interested in seeing sunrise's league.

So trades are locked right after the last regular season game, yes?

[Kuro]

Whoops! I forgot to pick up Latavius last night...oh well.

Also, great write-up Scooter! Somehow I didn't realize I was so high up there...

[pindicator]

There's some sort of wizardry going on at /r/fantasyfootball. Last week there were multiple threads pronouncing Jonas Gray as a must-start ahead of his game. This week (in between all the Josh-Gordon-is-Our-Savior posts) predictions of a Raiders win and saying people should start Latavius Murray abounded.

[Kuro]

There's some sort of wizardry going on at /r/fantasyfootball. Last week there were multiple threads pronouncing Jonas Gray as a must-start ahead of his game. This week (in between all the Josh-Gordon-is-Our-Savior posts) predictions of a Raiders win and saying people should start Latavius Murray abounded.

Especially impressive/amusing considering he has FOUR carries! Now I really wish I'd snagged him...

[NobleHelium]

There's some sort of wizardry going on at /r/fantasyfootball. Last week there were multiple threads pronouncing Jonas Gray as a must-start ahead of his game. This week (in between all the Josh-Gordon-is-Our-Savior posts) predictions of a Raiders win and saying people should start Latavius Murray abounded.

Way to not tell me sooner, man!

[Kuro]

Well, this'll help my RB situation...some, anyway. Eugh, I feel sad needing to rely on S-Jax.