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It would get even more complicated when one considers degrees of success and failure. Is an axe rush successful if it forces a bunch of whips, pillages some key improvements, then leaves/chokes/dies? Or does it have to actually take/raze at least one city? Is a pink dot successful if it forces your target to over-invest in destroying the pink-dot city? Is a pink dot attempt a failure if you're forced to settle closer to your own lines? Is it a failure if it drags you into a long protracted ancient-era conflict, even if you end up keeping the city?
These aren't rhetorical questions btw, I'm genuinely curious. I'm never aggressive early on in SP games, so I have no idea how to judge these sort of things other than the few PBs here on RB I've read in the last couple of weeks, none of which were the ones Krill suggested, which I now no longer have the time to peruse, unfortunately.
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Quote:It would get even more complicated when one considers degrees of success and failure. Is an axe rush successful if it forces a bunch of whips, pillages some key improvements, then leaves/chokes/dies? Or does it have to actually take/raze at least one city? Is a pink dot successful if it forces your target to over-invest in destroying the pink-dot city? Is a pink dot attempt a failure if you're forced to settle closer to your own lines? Is it a failure if it drags you into a long protracted ancient-era conflict, even if you end up keeping the city?
TBH most people don't even seem to think about decisions in this manner so you're already doing better than most players. The answers to all these questions vary depending on the game. I think that other posters may be able to give more subjective answers based on their experiences and be able to reference them.
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For me, the very short answer to all of Cairo's questions is "maybe". Keep in mind that there are other players on the map. It isn't a zero sum game where forcing your adversary to "lose" is inherently a "win" for you. You may gain relative to your victim and still come off worse in the exchange compared to the rest of the field. Rushes are risky for exactly this reason.
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Yeah, the fun part about civ is how often the answer to a strategic question is 'it depends...'
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker
April 5th, 2015, 16:16
(This post was last modified: April 5th, 2015, 16:17 by Krill.)
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For posterity: IO think HAKs second city location is the the location I would choose: my only concern is that he has overbuilt on workers as evidenced by having 4 pop points but 5 improved tiles. he is also building a spear but is that really needed? If he now goes for a quick third city to block off the far south, uses ther excess workers to road there and also to improve the rice that is unimproved yet could be shared with the second city that I don't really know how he could improve on this position?
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(April 5th, 2015, 22:03)retep Wrote: 
3 warriors dead, should I give up already? When do I plant my second city? Before T40?
P.D: Awesome scouting I know so much about this map already.
Snakebite. For the life of me, I can't figure out which tile the attack was on through the interface but it must be one of the two hills south of the mountain tile given the 25% plot defense bonus. This is the only other good shot I found of the area:
Keep your units close to home, or on a hill/forest! You have no luck except bad luck. Adjust accordingly!! 
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Isn't that the Bear in the NE corner of the screenshot, partially hidden by the Settler balloon?
In which case it might be his target second city site - from the second screenie, it looks like probably 3SW of his capital.
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You're right. I was straining my eyes to see it behind the interface. 
Easy to say in retrospect, but the bear had odds on the warrior so the warrior death isn't exactly unforeseeable. If the warrior had built up fortification bonus it would have had better odds, but even going across the river would have helped. Better to delay settling by 1 turn than taking 1/3 shot of having your warrior die and having to delay the city even further, or risk it settling without any support.
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I strongly feel that HAK needs to settle 2N of that eastern marble to lock off all that land, then just defend, grow and kick Borsche off the continent if he tries anything.
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April 10th, 2015, 12:41
(This post was last modified: April 10th, 2015, 13:01 by Zed-F.)
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He can't settle there if he settles C4 as planned, which also locks the territory but is not as greedy about the marble. Not sure how quickly he can get there and defend the pink dot. IIRC that site is closer to Grimace than to HAK -- it's 1st ring to Grimace's capital and he might not tolerate a pink dot there. Settling there could be more provocative of ancient war, especially if Grimace would contest the marble resource.
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