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(April 16th, 2015, 07:46)AdrienIer Wrote: Rowain, Pindi being scum nightkiller means he's scum (3/16) and he was chosen to do the kill (1/3) which is theoretically 1/16. It's low compared to Lewwyn being targetted (~1/2 or 1/3)
I have to say that even though I suck at statistics, I'm pretty sure you're doing it wrong.
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(April 16th, 2015, 07:48)novice Wrote: What was the edit, Krill?
Grammar edit. About 90% of my posts have edits within 2 minutes of posting because I suck at grammar, but can't edit posts in this thread.
Not that I should complain, it's just an excuse to solidify my forum post count victory.
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Nope. I actually made it more complicated than it is : one person in the group of 16 made the attempted kill so it's 1/16 that it was Pindi
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(April 16th, 2015, 07:37)AdrienIer Wrote: But then why did he claim to protect Lewwyn ?
a) Krill jailed Lewwyn
b) scum targeted player x
c) kill failed because player x was protected or maybe scum have a delayed kill and used it
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Why Krill jail Lewwyn? a) krill is town and thinks Lewwyn is likely killtarget then why did he immediately attack Lewwyn instead of being happy with his jailing?
b) Krill is town and saw Lewwyn as scum. Then why don't he push the case and how he came to that conclusion?
c) Krill is scum and tries to get Lewwyn lynched.
Note Krill came out as jailer and immediately attacked Lewwyn based on his jailing. He did not say hey I saved Lewwyn no he immediately jumped to No NK means Lewwyn is scum. Easy way to get rid of a dangerous player.
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But I can narrow it to maybe 12 by not counting myself and a few people I trust
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(April 16th, 2015, 07:52)AdrienIer Wrote: Nope. I actually made it more complicated than it is : one person in the group of 16 made the attempted kill so it's 1/16 that it was Pindi
There are no 16 scum. Most likely 3 left. So if pindi is scum then you have 1/3 chance that jailing pindi jails the killer.
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That's assuming Pindi is scum
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You assume that I protected Lewwyn rather than thought he was scum to begin with, and targeting him stopped him from completing night action ie killing someone. That is to say, I wasn't protectingb Lewwyn. I was protecting everyone else.
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(April 16th, 2015, 07:46)AdrienIer Wrote: Rowain, Pindi being scum nightkiller means he's scum (3/16) and he was chosen to do the kill (1/3) which is theoretically 1/16. It's low compared to Lewwyn being targetted (~1/2 or 1/3) You think Lewwyn would be that high?
Sure, he's pretty solid town, both from vote-clear (last minute switch to hang scum) and meta-clear (neighbouriser flipped scum, neighbours thus likely town). Which, combined with him being a good player in general, would make him prime target.
But scum have to know that *everyone* knows that. If there are any protective roles at all, they're on him.
Unless they're deliberately testing for protective roles (and, look at that, two roles that could broadly be classed as protection have claimed in response), I don't see why scum would actually aim Lewwyn last night.
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(April 16th, 2015, 07:55)Krill Wrote: You assume that I protected Lewwyn rather than thought he was scum to begin with, and targeting him stopped him from completing night action ie killing someone. That is to say, I wasn't protectingb Lewwyn. I was protecting everyone else. ...
Krill
-- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere,
someone is fighting for you.
-- As long as you remember her,
you are not alone.
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