TheHumanHydra Loses His Head(s) [Spoilers]

[TheHumanHydra]

It probably doesn't matter what you do, you're in a dominant position...

Scratch this; upon intense reflection (and holding the save) I've realized Alhazard's plan is to conquer not only Mardoc's mainland possessions, but also his home island (by use of canals), and that given the parlous state of Mardoc's defences he will succeed. I also miscalculated and my stack won't be able to reach Carter before Alhazard takes it (whether they can wrest it from him again depends on how much of his army he deploys there). Meanwhile, I don't see a reason, other than fear of my departing main stack, for Miguelito not to simply land his troops and attack The Other Side the turn after. Declaring war on him has revived substantial war-weariness in my cities, forcing me to run the slider for the first time, while negotiating peace will simply let him stage his attack with impunity for the moment the treaty expires. Alhazard's army is overwhelmingly powerful, being composed of cavalry 150% my primary hitters' power and with mobility sufficient, with the capture of Mardoc's territory, to threaten both ends of my empire simultaneously, which borders are turns apart for me. I need to think very deeply on how to attempt to deal with this situation tactically, to try and impede Alhazard from carrying out his plan successfully (and myself from suffering any reverses), because otherwise we are no longer in a position to slowly out-tech an opponent whose countermeasures are rendered useless by the defender's advantage, but in a position of economic parity or probably disadvantage (given the Mausoleum of Mausolus and possession of two cores), stymied in equal measure by that same defender's advantage, and under concentric military threat. This is the same outcome that faced me in my previous game, and it wasn't pleasant. Further, even successfully, it will make the game take forever to finish. The only outs I see are by some desperate measure razing several of Alhazard's (new or old) cities now, and/or conquering Miguelito's home island. The first is risky and problematic, the second will take time to enact. With galleons in hand, a future attack on Mardoc's (soon to be former) home island, as retep said, becomes possible, though this essentially means committing to naval supremacy for the rest of the game, with all the technological and productive opportunity costs that implies. As such, and to conclude my stream-of-consciousness rant, I propose that my tech path be Compass - Optics - Astronomy - Chemistry - Steam Power - Steel - Railroad, which will enable offensive and defensive naval construction, production of successively more powerful defensive units (cannon and machine guns), to hold on land against Alhazard, finally solve our mobility issue with railroads, and set us up for the next level of naval technology at Combustion. Unfortunately, all this does little for our economy, other than allowing us to build Astronomies for another +25% science multiplier in cities that will already have substantial demands on their productive capacity (I was hoping to take Constitution and Corporation after Military Tradition, perhaps build the Statue of Liberty, and have Assembly Line in hand much earlier than this scheme would allow). What do you think of this tech plan and strategic vision? Here are some screenshots in case anyone can see anything interesting to do tactically. Note Alhazard has more two-movers than are visible or marked here; he has 50 or 60 in all.
















Almost all my units still have their moves left. I have four Guerilla II/potential Guerilla II cho-ko-nus in the west that can double-move through hills. Byblos is vulnerable, but easily reinforced (this turn) from the main stack when Carter is captured and its culture falls away. Maybe I catch him off guard and can sneak Carter out from under him in a couple turns? Maybe too much to hope for, and risky for my stack. Not sure I can threaten his east much given his stacks are so close. I think I'm going to rush a galley in Trial By Fire to ferry what few units I can over to Mardoc's island to see what can be done there, but I'll be massively outnumbered by what units Al can boat across. Will think more tomorrow; now, bed - way past my bedtime.

[ipecac]

How vulnerable will you be to cavalry if you go the naval route? Just as you will be seeking to raze and slow Alhazard down he'll be seeking cost-effective ways to do the same.

[TheHumanHydra]

Hmm, I don't know. Theoretically rifles and cho-ko-nus should be fine on defence, though it does feel bad that our primary unit is two-third's his best unit's strength, and makes this situation, where I feel the need to attack, very difficult. I'm just saving gold right now, so there's still time to think about it. Another perspective is that we're very close to cavalry, while the naval path is a more long-term plan, so it might not hurt much to delay the latter to obtain the former much sooner.

Anyway, I finished the turn today at last. The following picture-dump will show all my dispositions, along with what I know of Alhazard's (note there will usually be one tile selected and another highlighted):




I offered Open Borders to Mardoc, so hopefully he will think the highlighted units are coming to help defend Faraday or something: they are, if culture will allow, but only after I hopefully capture it next turn with the selected knights and the one finishing in Sanctuary Dome. An Artist follows one tile behind to potentially bomb the city, again if culture allows him to actually reach it.




Highlighted and selected are units which might intervene in the Carter-Faraday region or move to attack Byblos next turn: much of the garrison of Childhood's End and my primary stack of knights. It's possible Alhazard will overextend in the south and leave his units too far from Byblos to support it, or that he will leave a portion of his force vulnerable in the south if he doesn't anticipate further opposition. These forces could capitalize on either such opportunity, but we shouldn't be too sanguine that one will present itself.




The remaining garrison of Childhood's End (any part of which could also move forward to attack Byblos next turn).




The Other Side: I declared war on Miguelito and killed his workers, on the two tiles where you can see axes. I offered a cease-fire as this should remove the - significant - war-weariness in my core while also allowing me to redeclare and kill his workers again if he attempts the same scheme again. I took a bit of a gamble in moving the entirety of my knight stack out of supporting range of the city, leaving only four green knights which had been left behind in the first place to help attack any stack that should happen to land.




Emerald: I wish I knew whether Miguelito has an unspent Great General (I'm guessing he doesn't, but am being cautious - should I relent?), as if I knew he didn't, these troops could be elsewhere. As it stands, he could sprinkle XP on four galleons, bringing them each to five XP, promote them to Nav I, and attack Emerald with 12 units. Here and at Red Star, I'm following the ratio of two defenders for every three potential attackers, as this requires him to win a hopefully unrealistic number of combats outright before he can begin to trade units, then clean up (i.e. here he would have to kill four units with their initial attackers before he could bring two, one to dent and one to kill, to bear against the remainder).




Red Star and Perrier. There's an outside chance my four Guerilla II-able cho-ko-nus in the latter could sneak up on Schroedinger through the hills (accompanied by anti-cavalry defenders), but only if Alhazard deploys his units just right (or wrong). I probably won't risk them.




The actual battle-front: Carter should fall to Alhazard this turn; highlighted are the galleys that should pass through it in two turns to land units on Mardoc's home island. I'm trying to set up to whip a galley, overflow into a second, and chop out a third to ferry riflemen over myself and hopefully cause some mischief: let's hope they're not required further north. This is a somewhat romantic notion for me, as I'm currently reading on the Peninsular campaigns, and this seems to me to be much the same. Is pink close enough to red to give my line infantry special powers?

That should be everything. To quote somebody from the Second World War, 'we will hit what we can when we can hit it' ('accuracy will improve' - Arthur 'Bomber' Harris ), but our powers of intervention are limited. I just hope I don't make any mistakes large enough to cost me a stack. I think the best long-term solution is to launch an attack of our own on either or both of Mardoc's and Miguelito's home islands once we have Astronomy (I'll probably launch the Golden Age when it comes time to reach it). Thoughts on absolutely anything are always appreciated.

[ipecac]

Fort and hit Alexandria with a Galleon. Also get a couple of spies onto his home island while you're at it.

[TheHumanHydra]

It's a great suggestion, but is it possible? Can canals be two tiles wide, or does it have to be one? But yes, I'll certainly do it if I can.

[Old Harry]

That's a great plan, either going through the two hills or the cottage and spices. If you have enough workers you should be able to do it out of the blue...

[ipecac]

Two tiles work. Hills is riskier as he'll have notice.

[TheHumanHydra]

Great, I'll try and do that as soon as I have Astro!

[TheHumanHydra]

Miguelito accepted cease-fire, and I declared war on Alhazard.




Finding Alhazard's main cavalry stack to be both in Mardoc's culture and heavily damaged, and believing there to be little else in range of Byblos, I advanced on the city with six riflemen, 48 knights, nine cho-ko-nus, six pikemen, three spearmen, two workers, and my Medic III chariot, followed by additional infantry and a couple knights.








These forces, excepting garrisons to be left behind, stand ready to advance in the west next turn if sufficient forces are drawn away toward Byblos (let's hope Miguelito doesn't land).




Current strength.

[Old Harry]

Fingers crossed...