WW #41. New Horizons.

[Serdoa]

Pointed that out regarding Lewwyn because I did not think that having more people confirming the same thing would tell us much. If he is town, scum knows that he is town and therefore it is not very risky to claim the same thing as he did. Pointing it out of course isn't either. Of course he could be lying as town to find out if someone agrees, scum has to keep that in mind. But still, not so likely and as soon as the second townie confirms his statement they know certainly that it isn't risky.

Regarding the polygraph I agree. I don't see how it can ever work. Or what's the point if it does. Imo you can even discuss if any lie should be detected, given that it is very likely that this would be interpreted as scum-tell and therefore is kinda similar to the stuff that is not given a result because it would detect if someone is scum. We could for example have everyone claim how many abilities he has. Town has 4, Rowain claims he has more, chances are scum does too. Wouldn't work either I suppose....

[Bacchus]

Not going to be around much for the rest of today, I think, so just a quick wrap-up post.

Reads first of all.

Strong suspicion: -
Suspicion: BRick for lurking and contentless contributions
Weak suspicion: AdrienIer for lurking, Serdoa for reasons discussed, Zakalwe for failing to answer my questions
No read: Goreripper (maybe a bit too detached, but a sensible contribution when prompted), Novice (stepped up on content after Goreripper's observation), Gazglum (misrepresented me as failing to claim alignment, and then went silent, but has been engaged and pointing out town-useful things otherwise, I'm willing to consider the misrepresentation inattentiveness, especially as it was caveated)
Town lean: Lewwyn

Special case: Rowain. Not been hunting, has not commented on any serious issues under discussion. With a third party, if they don't want to make their agenda known, it's probably a dangerous one. Lynching will provide no information though.

BRick.

To address novice's comments:

On Zak, you should be asking why he isn't answering my questions, rather than why I'm not up in arms against him. I will say, however, that I am consciously correcting for a known bias. I don't think he responded to the pressure of Serdoa's original vote at all, but also not in the zak voice that I find so scummy — an insistent, passive-aggressive drone. As to worminess, I look forward to his responses to my questions.

On the abilities, my answer to Lewwyn was on the topic of each ability existing in two copies. As has been mentioned several times now, I don't think this is realistic for sensor (first and foremost). On the number of abilities, I didn't know and still not sure whether this should have been voiced so early, but I have no reason to believe the number varies between us.

[BRickAstley]

Each townie has 4 single use abilities.

Also Lewwyn is likely town. He stated that all villagers have 4 abilities. That's true for me as well and as no outcry happened probably for all villagers.

I agree, I noticed this immediately. I was hoping we could milk it for more town tells but then you pointed it out. Anyway, some town points to Serdoa too I think, for pointing this out, as he also takes some risk as scum by confirming that all townies have 4 abilities.

How is this any sort of villager tell? The numbers work out so that every player can have 4 without extras. Why would scum not have some as well?

I will also claim a few town points for myself based on my post in response to Lewwyn's:

I agree with everything Lewwyn said.
Frankly this game is probably breakable in severeal different ways.

This was as clearly as I dared breadcrumb that I had noticed Lewwyn's "4 abilities" claim without ruining any fishing chances.

For the record I did agree with everything Lewwyn said in that post.

This feels like justification after the fact. And if not, also not helpful, since as above I don't see why scum wouldn't have a set of 4 as well.

[BRickAstley]

I do think though that Lewwyn gets credit for presenting it first. Scum probably wouldn't be so bold. After seeing a townie venture forth and claim it though it would be easier for scum to confirm for brownie points, so I wouldn't give those points to novice or Serdoa for that.

Otherwise I don't really have anything to contribute. I don't have any strong feelings, probably due to my reading in bits and pieces.

unvote for now unless i see something.

[Serdoa]

The point is not that scum could not have 4 as well (though unlikely because Rowain claims to have more and I suspect that to be true for scum as well, if for no other reason than having the night-kill), but that Lewwyn pointed it out, which scum would most likely not do, because they don't know if villagers are handled equally to them. It would be a high risk for them. Claim you have 4 powers and then all villagers tell they have only two. Chances are very high you'll get lynched. Not really worth it to make such a play imo.

[Serdoa]

Pointed that out regarding Lewwyn because I did not think that having more people confirming the same thing would tell us much. If he is town, scum knows that he is town and therefore it is not very risky to claim the same thing as he did. Pointing it out of course isn't either.

I do think though that Lewwyn gets credit for presenting it first. Scum probably wouldn't be so bold. After seeing a townie venture forth and claim it though it would be easier for scum to confirm for brownie points, so I wouldn't give those points to novice or Serdoa for that.

BRick, when I answered novice I made a post regarding Lewwyns "reveal". This post is just 2 posts above yours and yet reading your posts it sounds like it's completely new to you. I didn't realize with your first post, but your second one afterwards (quote for reference) is basically a rewrite of what I stated just an hour earlier (quoted as well).

Not that I mind that you would agree with the statement, but your post isn't agreeing, instead you present it as new fact. Which makes me question if you just overlooked mine because of a lack of time or if you are scum trying to look better.

[Gazglum]

Day 1 is a crapshoot, but imo there is a clear distinction between people who are trying to engage and those who aren't. Zak revenge voted Serdoa, then unvoted. All he has done this game so far is argue with Serdoa.

Brick is playing the clueless card, which I think is a null tell. I'd want more from him when he has the time though.

Rowain still hasn't posted except to discuss the many wonders of being himself. Unimpressed. Even after being asked to hunt more, Rowain hasn't engaged. Rowain is in the naughty logbooks.

But also,

Is that how you want to play it ? Force a mass claim and look for people with 4 duplicates (Or more accurately triplicates) ? I'm already bored by the prospect.
Is there a reason why we'd be sure each program is accessed by two people and two only ? IIRC someone mentioned the possibility of the weaker programs being more widespread than the stronger ones.

Adrien asking general questions to the air. This post rings my scumdar. He's only made 5 posts, and this is classic filler.

Then,

I have kind-of good vibes on most people except for Serdoa and Zak (won't attempt to unravel it while being so sleepy) and novice.

No problems with Adrien having been up late, but voting Novice without any stated reason is lame. He also then put Serdoa and Zak as his scummiest. Because they had been fighting? Wouldn't that make you pick one over the other? Unless you think they are both scum, but then why vote Novice?

Adrien for now, Rowain close second.

[AdrienIer]

You misunderstand me, it was indeed a filler because I didn't feel like lurking all day. I don't think we should bet the whole game on the 4*7=28 thing.

I can't pick between Serdoa and Zak until a real analysis of their interactions, so sometime tomorrow. Apart from them the top of my list is BRick and novice, but not by much

[Gazglum]

Why novice?

[Rowain]

We could for example have everyone claim how many abilities he has. Town has 4, Rowain claims he has more,

Nope I said

@ Serdoa: I have a different number of powers than 4.

but nothing about more or less. First you say I have a killing ability than you try to insinuate that I have a power that might kill someone

(

Actually, maybe Rowain doesn't even decide on a player to kill but instead on a program to retrieve and the player killed is randomly determined from all in possession of that program.

All that together smells like laying groundwork for a later mislynch - not on Day 1 but for later when the mislynches become harder and harder to get but nobody would have trouble to lynch the neutral guy especially if you can paint him as a maybe-killer.