Dare you enter the Whizzard's Realm? Magic and Mysteries abide.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

OMG that was a grim turn... FUCK ME. I can't bare to do a full report but just ergh. Was not getting any hits in on their rifles, nor getting many withdraws. I probably should have done a sim or at least stopped when taking the city was not possible... Argh. I didn't want the deaths to be in vain. Mack is 100% the favourite now, we will be struggling from here on really. Now we need to wait for cannon. Stats says 17 cavs lost, we lost 2 the previous turn so 15 and some knights? For kills of like 3 rifles. I swear even behind 60% culture on a hill that is horrifically unlucky. He only had 5 rifles in there, only 2 with any promo and 2 with 5% def bonus. I anticipated 3 cavs per rifle with a few spare with knights for mopping up the 2 longbows/pike and any poor odds. I feel like an AI.

The allowing them to recapture JF was planned to make sure those EI were emptied, although I allowed two workers to be needlessly deleted. Scooter joining is interesting, and the city he took I am happy with him having, the one that borders with mackoti.

[greenline]

I still wonder why no one here has bothered making a minimal or zero variance combat mod... Would be interesting to see how fighting would work in that and no one could complain about RNG

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

I still wonder why no one here has bothered making a minimal or zero variance combat mod... Would be interesting to see how fighting would work in that and no one could complain about RNG

I'm not 100% sure it is the RNGs fault. But it feels like it. I would hope to get a hit or 2 and then get progressively better odds. Completely fucked it though. Will need to wait for a decent amount of cannon now.

[Old Harry]

I feel like an AI.

QOTM candidate.  

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Fuck, that sucks. Can you give an overview? We could still follow up by eating at least the southern half of RMOG. And when we are in 2nd/3rd place, Scooter will have no choice but to cooperate with us in dismantling RMOG.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

Fuck, that sucks. Can you give an overview? We could still follow up by eating at least the southern half of RMOG. And when we are in 2nd/3rd place, Scooter will have no choice but to cooperate with us in dismantling RMOG.

Yeah I have some screenshots... There was 100% a point where I should have gone 'hang on, we just aren't getting hits in here, lets regroup'. Playing the turn again I probably should have moved to fork the cap and that city. Scooter seems to think I should have taken the city because I doubt he would have kept the other city otherwise. But he had so many units left maybe my gut instinct was way off. That is unusual though. We barely got any retreats despite the 30% retreat chance either

We are still first in soliders and have a decent amount of cannon out now.

We likely will be able to take/raze Global Warming this turn (what would be your preference? I am OCD and would LIKE to raze, but he no longer has a coastal city on that water body I believe so a safe city gain would be nice.

I'll post and pause before doing anything this evening, and have a rethink. Would he take peace? Doubtful... Argh. I seriously messed up there. After 5-6 cavs lost I shuoldn't have carried on.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

I still wonder why no one here has bothered making a minimal or zero variance combat mod... Would be interesting to see how fighting would work in that and no one could complain about RNG

Also the issue is what is exactly meant by this? Always having the top unit winning? It would be more like a civ5/6 thing needed where one would do the expected amount of damage each time is what is needed really. Very difficult to work out what that would be.

[El Grillo]

Past few days have been rather busy, but I'll take a look this evening. It's frustrating that the RNG forced a change of plans, but hey, that's why we play out the turns .

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

So... How the fuck did this go so wrong?

What I left the preceeding turn...

The forces that had lined up

It's a little cluttered, but that's 5 rifles, 2 longbows and a pike. Longbows and the pike at full fortify bonus, 1 rifle at 10% 1 at 5%. 2 with the 20% increased defence bonus, all on a hill with 60% culture.

Lined up our side is 20 cavs all with 2 promos, 4 knights. A couple mildly hurt, but 18 full health units. Not going over the river. As I said, I was expecting to loose 2 cavs per rifle and kill on the third, but obviously have less than that die due to the retreat odds.

Maybe it genuinely was not enough... I don't know. The intial battles were something like 16 v 30 with a c1 pinch cav, but even 20-25% odds battles I was barely landing a hit... Where the point I should have stopped was I do not know. I was very keen to take the city as the units healing in JAO could have road in to defend it from counter, it would have decultured the area too. Free 2+ happy all over and prevented a big battle with more units there also. In hindsight forking his cap and this city could have been powerful.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

So I tried to tempt him here... Accidentally lost 2 workers where the knight out of the city is.

What is left around KND. It was closeish. A few better combats early and the odds would have been progressively much better. However I threw 20 cavs with a 30% withdraw chance and 4 knights, and the COMBINED win/withdraws were a mere 6 cavs left. Roughly that many should have withdrew! I only got 2 withdraws. I think I was REALLY unlucky with the rolls, and started to see red with tiredness.

Combat logs

Odds were (for that combat arena, had knight kill/withdraw/kill in JF first) Cav v rifle unless otherwise said odds rounded

1% 16.5 v 30.1 no hits retreat
1% 16.17 v 30.1 1 hit 14 lost
3% 16.5 v 29.4 1 hit 15 lost
4% 16.5 v 26.6 1 hit 15 lost
9%16.5 v 25.9 0 hit lost
9% 16.5 v25.9 1 hit 16 lost
9% 16.5 v 25.9 2 hits 32 lost
9% 16.5 v 25.88 0 hit lost
9% 16.5 v 25.88 1 hit 15 lost
10% 16.5 v 24.99 1 hit 15 lost
21% 16.5 v 22.61 6hits win
23% 16.5 v 21.75 0hits lost
23% 16.5 v 21.75 1 hit 16 lost
23% 18 v 23.85 2 hits 30 lost
34% 17.64 v 23.03 4 hits 64 lost
Knight 15% 11 v 17.61 0hit lost
Knight 6% 11 v 19.99 0 hit lost
Knight 15% 11 v 17.61 2 hit 28 lost
60% 16.5 v 17.61 win
65% 18 v 17.4 pike win
45% 14.76 v 14.4 longbow win
Knight longbow 11% loss
68% longbow loss
69% withdraw