[LURKERS] Setting Up Tents for a Ren Faire

[Sareln]

Did calculators go out of style? I vaguely recall a stack-based compute spreadsheet...

For the top rifle (+25% vs. Mounted +185% from other bonuses) I have 59.50% of the time the rifle survives 3 C1/Pinch Cavalry attacks.  That's if the rifle is alone and you can keep flinging Cavs into it.

Odds Defender Still Alive after N C1/Pinch Cav Attacks (Sum of Defender Victory and Attacker Retreat Chances)

99.64 / 88.79 / 59.50 / 30.40 / 12.80 / 4.71 / 1.58

I don't think it was that much bad luck.

[Krill]

Withdrawal chance increases as the odds of victory increase, so I can think the expected return for 12 suicide attacks is between 2-4 retreats. Not certain though.

Isn't it the opposite? If you have 0% chance of winning a battle, you get the full retreat chance. Otherwise, you get the retreat chance based on the odss you have of losing the battle. Perhaps I'm misremembering or misunderstanding your point.

Stupid fucking autocorrect.

[OT4E]

Where does +185% modifier comes from?
The top rifle was showing +60% culture +25% from hill+20 from promo and +10 fortify, which is +115% bonus only Bonus against mounted is neutralized by pinch. So thats 16.5 against 30.1

[Krill]

Top rifle was cg3 and think full fort. That's an extra 55% from promo and 15% from fort which is the rest.

[OT4E]

You can see REM's pre-turn screenshots or the real percentage he has got in his thread. Not even a single double promoted rifle and just 10% of fortify because they got rifle just few turns ago.

I came to the conclusion that cities with the word "Krill" in its name are unbreakable.

[Krill]

I swear I saw a CG3 rifle in there.

Maybe I misread it as I looked at it on my phone *shrug*. There's a CG3 rifle in the city now anyway.

[Mardoc]

I don't think it was that much bad luck.

Ok, so maybe the odds aren't quite that bad, without a CGIII unit. On the other hand....

Lined up our side is 20 cavs all with 2 promos, 4 knights. A couple mildly hurt, but 18 full health units. Not going over the river. As I said, I was expecting to loose 2 cavs per rifle and kill on the third, but obviously have less than that die due to the retreat odds.

18 full health units is probably 14 full health cavs + 4 full health knights + 6 wounded Cavs. Yeah, REM calls them 'mildly hurt', but a couple hits would likely make a huge difference on the odds when they're already on the wrong side of the effective strength question - and looking at his screenshot, some are 14.7/15, but some are ~10/15 health - that's less valuable than a knight! On top, I see several cavs promoted Combat I/Combat II, not Pinch.

It seems like Sareln is right here. REM didn't really have enough power to take the city. He was unlucky with his withdraws, but likely that would have just given WK a tactical problem in how best to clean up the mostly-dead units.

[OT4E]

After the battle one unpromoted rifle got 10 exp, and it rarely happens without luck.

[GermanJoey]

That's after multiple battles though. 10XP = 3 from barracks + 2 from theocracy + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2, meaning the first 3 battles were ones with very high odds, while the last one was around ~50% odds. That's not too unexpected given the situation.

[OT4E]

For the record.
The chance of scoring just 2 or more hits is 58% in 16.5 vs 30.1 battle (1,35% chance to win).
In 16.5 vs 25.9 battle (unpromoted rifle, 8.76% to win) the chance to make 2 or more hits is 75%.

I made a short simulation and I only failed to take the city once in 10 tries.