Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well I've checked the odds for the bill passing and if you bet $10 for it to pass you only get $1. Yay. I feel the most likely cause is that May's speech, which will give her a blank check later, sucker-punched labour and made them unable to adjust.

I've thought about it and referendum doesn't give May a mandate to "hard" brexit (unless my 'EU goes full retard' theory is actually correct). A second referendum isn't possible because of 'voting until you get it right' but re-electing parliament would've been a good work around. UKIP/CON could just take an expliclty hard brexit stance and LD bleeding votes off of Labour and their geographic advatage would more than compensate having to win twice. Edit: UKIP even suggested this right after they won but that was only to avoid an unelected PM.

[darrelljs]

Get used to it, because that's exactly what's going to put Donald Trump in charge of the USA in five months.

Nice call.

Darrell

[Brian Shanahan]

@MJW at the moment it is the UK that have gone full retard, they know the EU has a red line in the four freedoms. Yet still they try and push hard for full single market access without reciprocal freedom of movement or full signing up to regulations. Frankly if the EU gives anything up from their current position it breaks up, because everbody will want the swwet deal the UK got where they get all benefits without the obligations.

Look, the UK are in a very bad position, they've no great exports to trade to the world, they've an economy based on financial services that is both dependant on free access to the EU (London's the EU's offshore tax haven) and able to up sticks at a moment's notice. The negotiators are so far beyond the bend that they're listening to the lying words of a man who doesn't give two shits about them. If the EU needs to tread carefully, then the UK has long gone past the point of no return in terms of getting anything.

What'll happen is that Article 50 will be triggered, the EU side will lay out their position (again), the UK will try to bully their way into a better deal, the EU refuse, the UK throw their toys out of the pram and full break will happen. After about ten years a much castened UK goverment will come back looking for Norway status and might get it, but with extra strings attached.

I don't really understand what you mean by things like 'requires access' and 'gets nothing' and 'a man coming up to a poker table and staking his house on a bluff ' and 'whereas the UK does 61% of it's trade with the EU and certain sections of its economy will keel over'.  I can't imagine the EU actually imposing sanctions; as best I can tell, the only sanctions they have are on Russia, and those are a special case due to Ukraine.  Seems to me that the way to bet is that the UK ends up with a trade deal with the EU that's similar to Japan, India, Brazil, or Korea (other non-EU economies of similar size).  Size of economy should be a decent proxy for negotiating strength, after all.

Definitely none of those four are required to contribute to the EU budget directly, or accept free movement of persons, so the only way the UK would be different is whatever "spite" the EU feels they need to impose on a leaving country pour encourager les autres.

So the UK ends up with some tariffs, has to go through Customs.  Either they end up doing a little less profit on their trade, or the Pound falls to make up for the tariffs.   Trade shrinks a bit.  They either have to replace the various EU subsidies for industries, or do without.   I understand that the UK was a slight net contributor to the EU, so they ought to have budget room to replace the subsidies; it'll be more a question of whether the government chooses to replace them or spend the money elsewhere.

All in all, the net effect will be that the UK and EU both get a little bit poorer, by an amount that's small enough that it doesn't change anyone's mind because it can be argued either way.  Same as a million other economic arguments that are never resolved because too many other factors changed at the same time as what you're arguing about.  Life goes on.

UK gets a lot poorer, no EU subsidies propping yp their agriculture, no financial services sector due to a lack of EU banking passports, a big reduction on their current trade of goods with the EU, plus having to pay big bribes to keep the foreign companies which own the remnants of British industry sweet (the Nissan bribe is somewhere in the realms of £7-8bn, with probably annual toppers in addition).

The EU will face some temporary disruption, mostly from the banks settling into Frankfort and EU companies coming to terms with an EU with no offshore tax haven. But, as the world's largest market, they'll survive.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Just for fun, I predict it would cause a recession but not one close to big enough to go back after ten years.

[AdrienIer]

More importantly, why would the EU want you back after ten years ? You can't just get in and out of the EU on a whim

[MJW (ya that one)]

More importantly, why would the EU want you back after ten years ? You can't just get in and out of the EU on a whim

I don't think ten years is "a whim". And joining takes time so it would be more like 15 years.

[AdrienIer]

I do think 10 years is a whim. Should every country hold a referendum on exit every 10 years ? Or even 15 ? Entering or leaving the EU is supposed to last (mostly) forever, so while changing your mind is ok the EU isn't a golf club whose subscription you can choose to pay or not pay whenever you want

[MJW (ya that one)]

I do think 10 years is a whim. Should every country hold a referendum on exit every 10 years ? Or even 15 ? Entering or leaving the EU is supposed to last (mostly) forever, so while changing your mind is ok the EU isn't a golf club whose subscription you can choose to pay or not pay whenever you want

You don't think 15 years isn't a very long time ("forever")? Well I do...how old are you?...23......I wish I could feel like that...

[MJW (ya that one)]

Oh, and they wouldn't technically join. They would get the crappy Norway deal where they cannot vote.

[AdrienIer]

Oh, and they wouldn't technically join. They would get the crappy Norway deal where they cannot vote.

Oh yeah that's fine. I just don't want the UK participating in the decision making of the EU for the next generation