Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[Rowain]

Vive la France

In the last few days I was worried that too many might stay at home because the polls indicated Macron winning so I'm happy enough showed up to make it a clear win.

But it is only the first part next is the vote in June. I hope the FN won't get 30+% then.

Our parliamentary elections are not proportional. They mostly work like 577 mini presidential elections in the 577 electoral districts. Last time the FN got 15% in the first round and ended up with only 2 people. Even if they get 30% in the first round they'll get at most 40 people in parliament after the second round.

Ah similar to the US/GB. Is this a rather new setup or how come you still have that many different parties?

[Commodore]

So curious, seems to be a reasonably large contingent of EU-fans (?) here, glad to see Marcon winning...what do you see as the endgame on this? For France or anywhere else Western Europe. American left/right coding (aka "it's always the Civil War") doesn't map very well, clearly. Brexit was won by the older people vote, while MLP in France had her best representation among 18-24(!) at 44%, with 47% of young women(!). Given demographics (~one third all children in France born last year got screened for sickle-cell) that's a solid majority of young French. Just very odd compared to the Anglo patterns.

Was interesting to see four very very starkly different candidates in this election, can't say you guys didn't have a number of clear options (to vote for at least, naturally voting != what you actually get). It was like getting to choose between 2014 Bernie Sanders, 2016 Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, and Hilary Clinton.

[AdrienIer]

Vive la France

In the last few days I was worried that too many might stay at home because the polls indicated Macron winning so I'm happy enough showed up to make it a clear win.

But it is only the first part next is the vote in June. I hope the FN won't get 30+% then.

Our parliamentary elections are not proportional. They mostly work like 577 mini presidential elections in the 577 electoral districts. Last time the FN got 15% in the first round and ended up with only 2 people. Even if they get 30% in the first round they'll get at most 40 people in parliament after the second round.

Ah similar to the US/GB. Is this a rather new setup or how come you still have that many different parties?

Well similar except there are two rounds. Which changes everything. We've had it since 69 when De Gaulle created a new constitution.
Those two rounds make different parties viable. In a very left wing constituency a second round communist vs right is likely to go to the communist. Or in the case of my constituency a communist vs socialist second round is a tossup. But in a right wing constituency you could get a center vs right choice in the second round, which would be a tossup. Or in very right wing constituency a right vs FN choice in the second round.

So curious, seems to be a reasonably large contingent of EU-fans (?) here, glad to see Marcon winning...what do you see as the endgame on this? For France or anywhere else Western Europe. American left/right coding (aka "it's always the Civil War") doesn't map very well, clearly. Brexit was won by the older people vote, while MLP in France had her best representation among 18-24(!) at 44%, with 47% of young women(!). Given demographics (~one third all children in France born last year got screened for sickle-cell) that's a solid majority of young French. Just very odd compared to the Anglo patterns.

Was interesting to see four very very starkly different candidates in this election, can't say you guys didn't have a number of clear options (to vote for at least, naturally voting != what you actually get). It was like getting to choose between 2014 Bernie Sanders, 2016 Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, and Hilary Clinton.

Where do you get those numbers ? 18-24 are not pro-FN (they voted massively for Mélenchon in the first round), the FN demographics is the 25-40, primarily those who live outside the larger cities. Those people can legitimately say that the system has let them down, they're having to choose between unemployment and low paying jobs with terrible work condition, with no end in sight.

The endgame is, hopefully, a better EU who is more integrated, more democratic, and less into imposing terrible economic policies to its members. Macron is set on doing all 3. The main reason I don't like the guy is that he is also set on doing "pro-business" policies that will either have terrible side effects (and may or may not work, the last 3 years have shown that it doesn't magically solve the problems).

[Commodore]

OpinionWay had the 44%, Ipsos shows the 25-40 block indeed. Hard to say, then.

How does a more democratic EU get more integrated while imposing less? Honest question, all I hear from the hive is "vote for not FN".

Interesting datum, all of the European members of G7 are now led by people who are childless. Whoever owns the future, it isn't them.

[Bobchillingworth]

As someone who will soon be working for the french state with almost no possibility of working abroad I'm super relieved.

Interesting. I thought Macron wanted to cut a substantial number of civil service positions?

[AdrienIer]

Macron has children (and grandchildren) in law.

There are several possibilities. Either you start integrating those who are ready to be integrated, you get together a bunch of countries ready to work together on more integration (Fr Spain Italy Germany BeNeLux as a start), create a subgroup which moves towards more integration and tell the rest that they're welcome to get in if they agree to do more efforts. Or you move towards a more representative system, where the majority rules (maybe with a 3/5 majority needed for most stuff) and people can't really complained that they're being imposed stuff because they voted for it (the way you get "imposed" stuff by your president/prime minister/parliament, but you voted for them so it's not scandaleous).

Macron is already proposing new stuff like a minister of economy and finance for the eurozone, with its own budget, and a parliament of the eurozone to control it. Also, a defense fund with a joint defense and military.

[AdrienIer]

As someone who will soon be working for the french state with almost no possibility of working abroad I'm super relieved.

Interesting.  I thought Macron wanted to cut a substantial number of civil service positions?

120k yes. But you can only do that by not replacing all the people who are retiring, or firing people who do not have "fonctionnaire" status (which I'll have, and which makes you almost unfireable). I don't like his plan, that's for sure, but I won't be directly affected by it, unlike Le Pen who wanted to make school like in the early 1900s.

He's been kind of vague about which departments are going to be affected, but I think education (where I'll be) police army and health won't be (edu and health need more manpower, which makes any attempt at lowering their numbers a political suicide, and police + army are untouchable as long as we have a terrorist threat)

[Commodore]

So basically a smaller EU, but more intense? I'd call that Napoleonic but this is the second time Rothschild beat him.

[scooter]

Congrats, France.

The thing that's concerning to me is I don't exactly see these far-right groups going away anytime soon. The reality is that Europe especially (and the US to a smaller extent) has a demographic problem. Aging population + low birth rates = economic stagnation. That's oversimplifying things a bit, but for the most part, it rings true. You can seriously counteract that through heavy immigration, but... obviously that's a contentious issue in virtually every major western democracy right now. As the population aging continues it's going to steadily get worse, and that'll fuel the fire for these fairly extreme political parties even further. As Commodore kind of implied, there's an air of inevitability about it all.

There are ways to stem this I suppose, but it sure feels like some of these populist cans have just been kicked a little further down the road in the countries that have thus far avoided it. Is there any plausible way around this? "Accept a ton of immigrants" seems like the right answer to me, but that's apparently a political nonstarter to a lot of people.

[AdrienIer]

There are counter examples to the "inevitability" of the stagnating economy, like Germany or the scandinavian countries. They're not perfect, but they're doing ok.