[SPOILERS] Suboptimal's Arabian Adventure

[suboptimal]

For an example completing a settler in a 3 pop city: Growth from 2>3 requires 24 food, growth from 3>4 requires 34 food. Therefore on the turn a size 3 city completes the settler if it has accumulated at least 24 food then it will not drop to size 2. The 24 food is just subtracted from the amount in the box. I tested a case where a settler completes just before growth with nearly full food in the box (as close as I could judge), then complete the settler simultaneous with growth. The result was that the food box indicator ended up about 40%-ish full, having subtracted the amount needed to regrow from but preserving the rest in the box ... really wish they gave us the actual numbers on the interface  

This is good to know, thanks for sharing the results of your settler tests.  I was particularly curious about whether city growth was immediate if excess food was high enough, now I know.     One less thing to test.

[suboptimal]

Turn 26

I start my turn by building a camp.  That completes the inspiration for Craftsmanship and I switch back to that civic, so it’s due next turn.  It also completes Jerusalem’s quest and I now have two envoys there.  Rowain appears to be hanging around, might have even fortified last turn (though the bonus doesn’t show up in the combat window).  Wonder if he’s thinking about trying to poach a settler.    More on that in a bit.

Down in the southwest the scout moves W-W-NW and finds coastline on the settler lens.  This bodes well for my western flank.



The last bit of housekeeping this turn is to change a citizen tile.  Instead of working the dyes for the next two turns I’ll work the farmed rice.  The increase in food output should get me enough excess food so that when the settler pops out on Turn 28 I have enough food to remain at 3 population or, at a maximum, only need one more turn to get there.  I’ll continue with that setup in the subsequent turns in order to get to population 4 relatively quickly (9 turns) while still maintaining a good production rate.

Now, about that settler.  Let’s look first at how I intend on getting the Settler to Glenkinchie’s site:



The yellow path is the shortest path – three turns of movement as it’s all flat ground and then settle on the fourth turn.  It also goes right by the warrior.  I'd need to do a warrior-slinger-settler waltz right past Rowain and hope that he either makes no attempt or decides that the capital is empty and goes that way.  It also telegraphs where I intend to settle. 

The second option is the red path.  It’s safer but just a little slower - four turns of movement and then move and settle on the fifth turn.  The other advantage to that path – Rowain can’t see it unless he moves south.  He also can’t currently see Tomatin and won’t see the settler reflected in the score if I’ve got my food count right.  So the plan is to move the slinger into Tomatin next turn, then escort the settler on the southern route.  The warrior will move SE-E as a "decoy".  Hopefully that gives the appearance that I’m going back into recon mode with the builder gone.  It also puts the warrior in a position to help block the settler party if need be.

If he does get agressive the bailout, at the cost of all of my gold, would be to purchase a slinger to defend Tomatin while the warrior builds.

In international news, Kaiser’s military power dropped by 15.  Looks like he tangled with a barbarian and lost a slinger.  I’m at the bottom of the pile with my 45.  Once I get the settler out that will change as I'll switch to military for a bit.

[suboptimal]

Turn 27

Internationally it looks like Rowain got a settler out this turn (or rather, last turn).  This might get interesting.  He’s still got his warrior parked on the hill, unfortified.  Bacchus also had his population drop again.  Wonder if that means he got another settler out.  More international news in a bit….

Craftsmanship completed, switch Discipline to Agoge and go back to Foreign Trade.  Slinger and warrior move as I escribed last turn.  I’ll be interested to see how Rowain reacts.  Scout moves into the jungle belt and stops there.  Next turn it should break through to the northern side.  Tomatin shows 4 surplus food per turn and three turns to grow to size 4.  That means it has between 21 and 24 food now, giving it 25-29 food next turn when the settler pops out.  Since I only need 24 food to grow from size 2 to size 3 the population should remain at size 3.  

I was about to hit save turn and then I saw the little trophy looking message icon in the lower left indicating some sort of diplomatic action.  Clicked it and got…



Huh.  Now there’s something that didn’t happen in PBEM 2! (at least, that I can remember - it always was "Be My Friend" in the west and "MOAR BLUD!!!" in the east.  Talk about a lack of subtlety).  I accept the delegation and note that my treasury increased by 25 gold.  I reciprocate by sending back a delegation (and its 25 gold).  I don’t want to ignore the request to avoid sending the wrong message.  Likewise, sending the delegate back keeps the transaction gold neutral, so that’s a goodwill gesture as well.  One immediate effect: increased diplomatic visibility between our civs.  Alhambram used this in the PBEM 2 late game to track his opponents and this early on we’ll see what the gossip entails. There’s also a potential meta factor here.  Of the five of us Kaiser and myself are the newest to the RB community, having both become active just within the past couple of months.  This could be a case of the “newbies” sticking together.  Regardless, I’ll be curious to see how this develops diplomatically going forward, particularly given the fact that Kaiser appears to be boxed in the southwest corner with two ways out – through me or across the desert to his east.   At some point there will be conflict, either because he decides to break out of his corner or I decide his Holy Sites would look good in my collection...

[suboptimal]

Turn 28

Open the save, have the diplomacy icon waiting for me.  Left click on it and...it goes away.  It’s supposed to do that with a right-click.  Left click, I though, brings up a message.    Check the diplomacy screen with Japan and I see our diplomat has been accepted.  Settler completed in Tomatin (and Tomatin remains population 3), start a warrior.  Rowain has brought a second warrior down and moved the first towards Tomatin.  I’m guessing there will be war shortly….what to do?



I have a slinger and a warrior.  He’s got two warriors, both at +5.  He’s got 55 military power, which means he has a slinger somewhere else.  Time for some home defense and a plan B.  The warrior is due in 3 turns with Agoge and I can buy a slinger for 140 gold if need be (Edit: I can buy a warrior on Turn 30 instead).  The slinger will stay put in the city, I move the warrior to the rice tile next to the city.  That reveals a damaged barbarian scout.  With the settler I have three choices:

1) Stay in the city and wait to settle Glenkinchie until the fracas passes
2) Move south to settle Glenfarclas
3) Move west to settle either Aberfeldy or Cragganmore.

After looking at my options I feel it’s important to get a second city going to maintain pace with everyone else.  Aberfeldy is also a bit stronger than Glenfarclas as a second city as the production availability is slightly greater.  The settler heads of in that direction.

After the moves, here’s the situation:



My next decision – whether or not to declare war next turn if the Rowain moves to the deer tile (and before backup arrives).

My plan was to go warrior→builder→slinger→holy site→settler in Tomatin, using a chop from the builder for the district.  Now I may flip-flop the district and settler builds, but still putting the chop into the district.  The builder was going to chop once and then go to Glenkinchie.  That remains the plan, but to Aberfeldy instead.  If this war ends quickly I might consider moving the settler up in the queue.

Moves compete I turn my attention back to the scout in the southwest.  It gets to move one hex, finding more jungle and whales.  I hit end turn and hear the barbarian war horns sound again.

This may or may not matter depending on how the anticipated Battle of Tomatin goes, but here’s a district plan/dot map of Tomatin:



The white hex is for the Holy Site and the yellow will be a Commercial Hub.  The cyan dot between them?  Great Zimbabwe.  Given the number of bonus resources around Tomatin getting this wonder built could result in +12 gold per turn per trade route from Tomatin.  That would get the economy going!  As for brown dot, it’s within six tiles of three potential city sites (Glenkinchie, Cragganmore and Aberfeldy).  That makes it good for either an Industrial Zone or the Colosseum (with the Entertainment Center NE of this hex).  However, I don’t know if I’d need the extra amenities and, in all likelihood, if this game is still going strong by the time we can all build factories then we’ve done something wrong or all reverted to builders.  (PBEM 2 didn’t build a single factory nor did anyone ever research the necessary tech).

[suboptimal]

I spent a bit of time thinking about the present situation.  I have a feeling that by Turn 40 I'll either be in the lurker thread or in a city with no military awaiting my delayed elimination from the game or alive and hopelessly behind.  I'll have a full analysis with the Turn 29 report.

[oledavy]

I spent a bit of time thinking about the present situation.  I have a feeling that by Turn 40 I'll either be in the lurker thread or in a city with no military awaiting my delayed elimination from the game or alive and hopelessly behind.  I'll have a full analysis with the Turn 29 report.

What's going on? 

Also, wanted to comment on this: 

...if this game is still going strong by the time we can all build factories then we’ve done something wrong or all reverted to builders.  (PBEM 2 didn’t build a single factory nor did anyone ever research the necessary tech).

Woden and I did research Industrialization by the end of PBEM 2, but it indeed come very late. Although, I would note the tech gives a very nice +1 hammers on mines and should be appropriately prioritized. 

It still astounds me how different the play around IZ's has become in the aftermath of Firaxis removing the possibility of multiple factory bonuses. Granted, this strategy could be considered standard for most district types, but in the case of IZ's, I feel like you should either spam them for adjacency bonuses and use the corresponding civic to double their yield (bonus points if you are Germany doing this), or simply build 1-3 with the aim of getting a factory into each one.

[suboptimal]

I spent a bit of time thinking about the present situation.  I have a feeling that by Turn 40 I'll either be in the lurker thread or in a city with no military awaiting my delayed elimination from the game or alive and hopelessly behind.  I'll have a full analysis with the Turn 29 report.

What's going on? 

Look at the first screenshot on the Turn 28 report.  Rowain has two warriors, one present and one en route, both on his home continent, so they get the +5 bonus.  They are strength 25, vs. a strength 15 slinger and a strength 20 warrior.  I can buy one warrior on Turn 29 and one will be built and ready to go on Turn 31.  Three warriors at 20, one of whom needs to stay inside the capital for the garrison value, vs. two 25 strength warriors.  I don't like the math on that (25 damage given vs. 36 damage taken on the first shot).  If one of them promotes with Battlecry before I can kill it I'm looking at a strength 32 unit.  That makes it give 18 vs. take 45.  Provided the deer and sheep tiles stay usable by me I can build one warrior every three turns.
Full analysis pending once I get the save downloaded and opened, which won't be until a bit later tonight.

[suboptimal]

It still astounds me how different the play around IZ's has become in the aftermath of Firaxis removing the possibility of multiple factory bonuses. Granted, this strategy could be considered standard for most district types, but in the case of IZ's, I feel like you should either spam them for adjacency bonuses and use the corresponding civic to double their yield (bonus points if you are Germany doing this), or simply build 1-3 with the aim of getting a factory into each one.

Now that I've gotten more sleep I'll comment on this a bit more....one thing I still haven't quite figured out in looking at some of the districts, particularly the IZ, is how to gauge their value.  For the non-IZ districts it's a matter of generating non-cog yields and those are generally valuable.  For the IZ, though, are the cogs sunk into it (and the workshop and factory) now worth the +X later, even if the cumulative +X doesn't add up to the sunk costs before the game ends?  Is this even the correct way to look at it?  What adjacency bonus is the go/no-go on putting an IZ in a city?  In my builderish SP games I do tend to spam them. 

For example, an IZ is going to cost about 150 cogs around the time it's available, unless you beeline Apprenticeship and ignore the military stuff at the bottom of the tree.  The workshop adds in a +2 bonus.  If your IZ has a +3 adjacency that's a 65-turn breakeven on the sunk costs (325 cogs total).  Does having the subsequent +5 cogs per turn warrant spending the 325 cogs.  It's said that production is key but what of the opportunity costs to get it?  Makes for an interesting discussion, if anything.

[suboptimal]

The Freakout

We're going to call this one a combination of lack of sleep over the past few nights (not related to the game at hand), a bit of unhealthy paranoia (about the game) and the fact that this is the first time I'm dealing with actual human opponents and having to actually guess motives (instead of saying "Stupid AI" ).

As I briefly outlined in response to Oledavy, the +5 strength bonus on their own continent makes America's warriors that much more potent.  My initial analysis several pages back called it "dangerous" and my mind spun up and started crunching numbers.  Add in the Battlecry promotion with its +7 and that's a strength 32 warrior.  Two at 25 with the possibility of one getting promoted could be a formidable force.  Indeed, even if the objective wasn't to take me out an attack by Rowain would cause a significant setback for me in this game.  Of course, I went straight to “I'm doomed”, did the apocalypse analysis and posted what you see above.  This is all probably to the intense enjoyment of the Lurkerati, but we're all here for the entertainment and I'm glad to oblige.  

I only had time last night to download the save, open the game and take an overview screenshot:



Three things of note that are not visible on this screen – Rowain and Kaiser signed a DoF this turn, Kaiser has taken the Divine Spark pantheon (that's the delegation at work) and I've completed Astrology.  Rowain has a second warrior in the fog, last seen on the plains tile between the western horse and the stone to its west (see first T28 screenshot).   Kaiser appears to have killed the barbarian scout.  I haven't looked at the scores to see what's going on.

Given Rowain didn't advance the second warrior I have to assume, for the time being, that he's not invading.  What I can assume, however, is that he's projecting force in this direction, intending to settle in the fog just north of the horses or down where I have Glenkinchie marked.  From my settler's current position it's a five turn run to that spot on the short route outlined previously, six turns if I cross the river.  

The new plan is as follows:

- Offer DoFs to both Kaiser and Rowain and wait for Turn 30.  The settler remains in its current position, warrior cross the river to the SE, slinger moves to farmed rice.
- If Rowain accepts I bring the settler out of the fog and beeline for Glenkinchie with the warrior leading the way to get to the spot first.  I'd complete the warrior (as I was intending to prior to The Freakout) then start a builder.
- If Rowain declines I'll build a second warrior after the first and bring the settler back east for a run along the southern edge of the river with the new warrior in tow.  I'll run it down towards Tsingy then loop up from the south.

I expect that Kaiser will accept the DoF given his earlier overture.  My hope here is that Rowain is trying to settle near the horses and attempting to discourage me from doing likewise.  With the settler “heading west” maybe he accepts, thinking I've gone elsewhere.  If he does accept and we're in a footrace that I lose, the settler will take the Strathisla spot.  If he doesn't accept then we'll see what happens when the settler reappears.

[suboptimal]

Turn 29

No initial screenshot, that's above.  In other international news (now that I've looked at the score) Bacchus and Ichabod have both founded cities.

My initial moves were as described in the freakout.  Warrior crosses the river to the SE, slinger to the rice tile.  I did move the settler SW to the rain forest.  This is one tile closer to the eastern locations but still out of view of Rowain.  Rowain and Kaiser have both been offered DOFs, we'll see who's a taker next turn.  Hopefully my paranoid delusions don't lose me a good city spot (and hopefully my attempts to gain it don't start a war).

Out in the west, the scout moved clear of the rainforest and found Stockholm.  Kaiser's been there first.  The quest is to send a trade route.




I have to guess based upon the city states that Kaiser has found that he probably found Stockholm, saw La Venta and turned east.  That means he's probably not aware of the layout north of La Venta.  The scout will skirt Stockholm around the south and east, head up between Stockholm and La Venta then back around to Zanzibar to head due east across the desert.

Edit: Forgot to include what I heard when I hit next turn - the galloping of horses and two combats involving them.  In the second it sounded like a horseman took a fair bit of damage (did the "horseman dies, horse runs away" sound effect).  Sounds like someone's got barb horsemen in their neck of the woods.