Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well it looks like Jones could win.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well it looks like Jones is going to win. Due to people getting sticky if there's a gap that big (70-30) if it flips to a person that person never loses. Moore still won the white vote by a ridiculous margin but people won't care about that. This is a sweet victory for the DEMs.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I call the election for Jones. Moore kept it close enough to force Jones to wait for the certification so the GOP will have Strange's vote for this bill they are working on.

[MJW (ya that one)]

If the environment wasn't very favorable for the DEMs Moore would have eked out a victory because Jones is Pro-Choice. They should do very well in 2018 and 2022. The GOP might win a BS victory in 2020 because the DEMs foolishly made the primaries in such a way that it's likely that no-one can win a majority. But no-one would care about that. This will enable to blame everything on Hilary and the Russians on 2016, rather than them overextending, and secure their place in history. Things might crash and burn later but it won't the current DEM's problem. No-one really plans ahead for the future so them hampering future Americans really won't burden them. Trump will now just be an illustration of what could have been.

Edit: I was a bit melodramatic about the implications of Moore getting elected earlier because people would have just blown it off because "it's Alabama!".

Edit 2: This reconciliation bill will finish before Jones get into office. Everything else needs dem support anyway due to the filibuster rule. And there's time for one more reconciliation bill. I'm sure the GOP plans to use it for health care reform. It would need some DEM support anyway because the house freedom caucus knows that not having the mandate would cause Obamacare to fail one day. The real bad news for GOP is that this makes it plausible for the senate to flip in 2018 (nominations).

[Nicolae Carpathia]

Jones won because of a unique level of revulsion toward Moore by the black communities, who turned out at 08 numbers to put an thumb in the eyes of the GOP. They detest Moore because Moore wants to literally re-enslave black people and return them to a place of subservience. The organizers were energized because they knew Moore was historically weak, the fact that Moore was a child molester reduced his turnout to the pro-pedophile and the pro-life at all costs constituency.

[darrelljs]

I never thought I'd live to see Alabama elect a Democrat. If New York elects a Republican Yellowstone is blowing for sure...

Darrell

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I mean, it's worth noting that the Republicans won a Senate seat in deep-blue Massachusetts in 2010, and they weren't running against a Literal Child Molester then. Given the fact that Moore has been credibly accused of sexually assaulting 16 year old girls, I'm not sure that these results are that shocking, or that it gives us much new information about 2018 and beyond. Democrats still have a VERY tough Senate map, and their disadvantage in the House is enough that, while they will almost certainly erode the GOP advantage, their chances of taking control are slim.

[AdrienIer]

Massachusetts is blue but isn't unwinnable for Republicans if they're not too crazy. Romney was governor of Massachusetts after all

[MJW (ya that one)]

I mean, it's worth noting that the Republicans won a Senate seat in deep-blue Massachusetts in 2010, and they weren't running against a Literal Child Molester then. Given the fact that Moore has been credibly accused of sexually assaulting 16 year old girls, I'm not sure that these results are that shocking, or that it gives us much new information about 2018 and beyond. Democrats still have a VERY tough Senate map, and their disadvantage in the House is enough that, while they will almost certainly erode the GOP advantage, their chances of taking control are slim.

They only need to make progress to "win" (being able to blame everything on Clinton and Russians for 2016).

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Massachusetts is blue but isn't unwinnable for Republicans if they're not too crazy. Romney was governor of Massachusetts after all

True, but Alabama had a Democratic governor as recently as 2003 (near contemporaneous with Romney in Massachusetts). Prior to Scott Brown, the last Republican Senator was elected in 1972, analogous to Alabama's 1990 for a Democratic Senator. I really think the two situations are quite comparable (apart from the X factor of Moore sexually assaulting minors).