[Spoilers] Shallow Old Human Tourist Hit the beach!

[Krill]

That was my understanding of the formula cornflakes, but I suck at statistics so wouldn't know.

It also doesn't include a second reroll though, so odds are even better than that.

[Hitru]

Both Harry and Cornfalakes are right. Intuitevely Cornflakes calculates it using idea that our probability to get good leader is 1 minus probability of getting bad leader on both picks. Old harry instead calculates first the chance of getting good leader on first draw and then ads probability of getting good leader on the second draw, here he however calculates twice the situations in which both first and second picks are good leaders and thus has to subtract the probability of those situations.

[RefSteel]

Good heavens, this thread was almost at risk of falling onto the second page! Enough of that! Second-round picks:

Hannibal (Cha/Fin)
Lincoln (Cha/Phi)

[Fintourist]

Well, well. RtR CHA is surely playable, but we would like to avoid playing FIN or PHI. And after all, there are around 20 leaders that we would be quite happy to play with. Maybe the 3rd try will bring us one of those.. No reason to delay the decision:

Reroll leaders

[Old Harry]

We still want 20 leaders and there are 48 out there still. So that makes the odds 67%. Except that people will probably be keeping the ones we want.   Anyway, as anyone who's engaged in Civ4 combat knows you never lose two 65% battles in a row...

If I had to guess which traits will be most available now:
PHI - probably only worth an extra couple of great people, due to the way the cost escalates, but they do come earlier and you can get an engineer or prophet easier. Players will reject as it requires careful planning to fully benefit.  
FIN - popularly thought to be over-nerfed. Its good on a watery map, but this isn't likely to be one of those...  
ORG - on a map this big it'll take a conquest to make it shine, so it's win-more. Also some think a little dull.
IND - snagging a wonder is likely to draw the attention of hungry neighbours.  
SPI - takes a lot of work to make work. Although anyone reading the end of certain PB37 threads might be willing to give it that work.  

[Fintourist]

Good list   I guess in RtR people might well be enjoying and appreciating totally different things so the picks might be all over the place. It will be quite interesting to see, which traits ended up being the most popular.

The discussion in PB37 (JR4 thread) regarding SPI trait is quite nice and worth reading. Two thoughts re that:

1. It's quite funny that when e.g. Krill says he is happy that he did not get SPI in his earlier PB (all the work required for exploiting the trait), it is exactly the reason why we desperately want to play SPI. I'm not claiming that we will be able to squeeze everything out of the trait, but I definitely expect us to enjoy the effort. No other trait provides such a constant stream of interesting puzzles.
   
2. In the aforementioned thread, the discussion focuses quite much on the more direct gains of SPI (output derived from swapping different civics). In addition to that I believe that a significant part of SPI's value comes from the fact that it later in the game enables deploying strategies basically out of reach for other leaders. IN practice enabling an additional victory condition is of course a big one (we have already discussed culture victory here), but I could also see a situation where SPI enables an otherwise impossible military conquest (say mass production of amphi or commando units) or an economic farmer's gambit (everyone knows that you could be back to whipping and drafting without slack). I dunno if I'm making sense here, but I'm trying to say that SPI allows one to take potentially game-winning shots like no other trait does.
   

The final leader selection will of course be dependent on team decision, but I could see us preferring SPI+whatever to all the other leaders. If not for the strength of the trait, then just for the fun of it. I guess the most difficult decision would be if we rolled SPI with IND/PHI/FIN and the other option would be PRO/IMP+ORG/AGG. It would not be easy to pass on the solid combo of an early game boost combined with scaling economic trait.

[RefSteel]

Your third round choice:

Huayna Capac (Fin/Ind)
Augustus (Imp/Ind)

Argh: I'd have really liked to see you guys play Spi to the hilt, but random.org said otherwise....

[Fintourist]

Argh! Every one of our 6 leaders had IND, PHI or FIN (our top 3 least desired traits). What are the odds..

[Krill]

Should have gone with a snake pick.

[Old Harry]

Should have stuck with Wang Kon.