[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] The Final Clusterfuck: The PB38 Map and Lurker Thread

[ipecac]

DS could have safely moved SW instead of war-deccing and moving into DZ's territory on that critical turn.

Around that time, I was unaware DZ had Holkans, but DS should have gone for seriously disrupting DZ by trying to raze the second food resource DZ must have had. Otherwise he shouldn't have done any disruption at all, micro-disruption induces something like road rage in this parts.

[RefSteel]

DS could have safely moved SW instead of war-deccing and moving into DZ's territory on that critical turn.

Oh, absolutely! The lion didn't actually force him into anything; I think he was just using that as a joke. I was talking about the turn before that, when the bear moved to the tile SW of Antigonus, and the lion moved (W) to the tile NE of him. (When Antigonus was 3NW of Thought Control.) If the lion had moved anywhere else instead, he couldn't have known it hadn't moved to within striking range of the flatland "notch" in the corner of Dark Savant's BFC, so he likely wouldn't have risked moving onto that tile, and we'd be in a totally different situation.

[ipecac]

I'm not certain DZ will get a clean kill. DS should be able to whip enough warriors in his capital to tech to archery and survive for the time being.

Str 1 Holkan vs warrior in DS's capital with full fortify is 4.4 vs 4.3 strength

[Krill]

Rusten is going to follow the same strategy as I did in PB37. I look forward to seeing how it works out on a map more suited to it.

[BRickAstley]

Kudos to mapmakers i Know they created a very dificult map to play for me but fun in same time.

Kudos indeed.

[scooter]

Oooooof. I can't imagine declaring war on a neighbor and threatening their capital without knowing how their UU works. And I see Dark Savant trying to convince himself that this might have happened anyway, but... that's just not Donovan at all. There's very little chance he would have gone with a Holkan rush.


Of course, the real winner here is GermanJoey. Map reminder:

He's going to have very little resistance in pushing southeast through that string of relatively weak neighbors if he opts to do so. I think he'll do very well in this game if he can get past the jungle without falling too far behind.

[Coeurva]

If Donovan settles in the right place to notice the coast of that Astro island via culture pop, beelines the tech, and the Peninsula of Power keeps Gavagai and B4ndit occupied, I think he has good chances to survive this to the end, at least; because once he has a base (and likely a much longer coast than Joey or Xenu) to deploy galleons from, Medieval warmongers can always be met with the threat of neverending guerilla tactics from "invincible" 4-mover ships until Chemistry, as there's much less obvious incentive towards Astro on this map than say pb37 for most other players. In particular, nobody neighbouring Donovan has nearly as good a chance to spot coast across the ocean.

And to his credit, Savant "should have" gone out in PB37 at about three different times, considering the forces he was attacked with, yet never did. He might repeat that feat.

Joey isn't home free yet if, say, 2metra or xenu manage to conquer (or split) Donovan before he does, either, or if OT4E/chumchu can conquer Elkad early. Mr. Cairo, too, has a strong position now that 2metra has suffered from that panther fluke and might not be able to contest the coast north of his capital; naufragar, who is probably more likely Cairo's eventual target than mackoti or the people past the mountains, looks apt and motivated, but -- received wisdom -- warfare against humans is the most difficult part of the game to learn, and he arguably has the toughest neighbours of anyone on the map. If Cairo can conquer naufragar, he can mess with almost anyone's Astro lands while defended by weak terrain. (In that vein, naufragar has the right idea about the desert south of him, but shame that it's not actually blocking anyone.)

Not to say anything about anyone's strength -- just pointing out possibilities. If lurkers had publicly bet on first city capture of the game, who would have bet on Donovan?

[JR4]

From Dark Savant`s thread it looks like Donovan will have a 36 % chance of getting the first kill and conquer that Buddhist Holy city this very turn. I assume that Donovan`s Woodsman 2 Holkan is in range of Dark Savant`s capital. That is a huge potential reward and Donovan has to take that gamble. If the attack fails it looks like Dark Savant might just about be able to stave off the initial aggression, though he will be crippled. I think I would have done the same in his place (taking a gamble on whipping the Barracks and overflowing into an Archer. Warriors are no good at this stage for DS, just cannon fodder for the Holkans.

[BRickAstley]

   

Raise your hand if you thought Donovan Zoi would get the first elim at any point after turn 1. And then put your hand down you bloody dirty liar.

[Mardoc]

Raise your hand if you thought Donovan Zoi would get the first elim at any point after turn 1. And then put your hand down you bloody dirty liar.

Wow. Didn't really expect DZ to take the shot, and especially didn't expect him to win if he did. I wonder if there was some additional factor than those mentioned by DS, that made his odds better than 50%? Although I suppose 36% is good enough odds, given the potential profit. Very glad this happened in Pitboss so that there's no possibility of RNG manipulation drama.

Still, these sorts of things are why I lurk . It'll be interesting to see peoples' reactions to this, too.

Tough luck on Dark Savant, but at least he didn't suffer long .