[SPOILERS] Dark Savant leads the noble Inca as half-noble Churchiill

[Dark Savant]

Also, there's been a burst of lurker activity lately.  Hello, lurkers!

[Dark Savant]

Let's say we plant on the regular plains hill and not the marble.  If he wants to, ipecac can attack that the turn after it plants with the approaching axe and impi.

Okay, working out the numbers, a Combat I axe has a ~30.1% chance of winning against a plain axe on a hill with no fortify bonuses.

An impi has about an 88% of winning against the average result of the axe surviving the first round.

Stonesnake might be needed to hold off the attack for just one turn until the second axe can arrive.  I can whip a third axe in Casterly Rock next turn, perhaps, but it also cannot get there until one turn too late.

Planting on the marble is not going to happen if ipecac advances both units; he'll almost certainly attack that.

[Dark Savant]

Also, if ipecac/Commodore somehow had full knowledge, the best thing to do would be to declare war immediately and kill Stonesnake with their advanced warrior.

However, they can't see our axe/settler pair, nor the axe or axes following up, so he'll almost certainly advance the warrior instead -- and nothing else is in range to kill the scout.

[Dark Savant]

Ooh, wait -- his Combat I warrior can join in the attack.

I'm not sure an axe and a scout on a hill can hold off C1 axe + C1 impi + C1 warrior.


Well.  I think I need to try to plant, anyway -- I don't think the odds will be much in his favor.

That difference of one turn makes a big difference -- that's all I need to be completely safe.

[OT4E]

In the current situation I would not recommend to go in open conflict with Zulu. Do you have any doubts that he declares? You have 30% to lose city instantly, get monstrously promoted agg axe heading to your next city and impi with a promotion in backpack.

What you should do was to be faster in occupying key locations. But now it seems he is better prepared and have better odds.

I am sorry for not being optimistic.

[Dark Savant]

In the current situation I would not recommend to go in open conflict with Zulu. Do you have any doubts that he declares? You have 30% to lose city instantly, get monstrously promoted agg axe heading to your next city and impi with a promotion in backpack.

What you should do was to be faster in occupying key locations. But now it seems he is better prepared and have better odds.

I am sorry for not being optimistic.

I can have two axes just behind the settler pair -- they'll both be too slow by one turn, but they have a good chance of stopping any further incursion.

[Dark Savant]

That also assumes we can plant at all.  That hill road completes on t58, which will let a settler plant there the same turn, one tile SW of the marble.

If he does that, we'll have to plant ourselves off defensive terrain, unfortunately.

[Dark Savant]

The other option is to not plant on the hill.

One tile south of the jungle tile is somewhere we can plant next turn, and is safe short-term.  It's not great long-term, though, since it's poorer defensive terrain.

We can also plant directly on the super city site with a delay of one turn, but that concedes the marble plant site to ipecac, and we'll have a cultural war over control of the second-ring pig tile.

[Dark Savant]

So it seems the best move is to move as if to plant on the hill, and have the option of pulling away to the east depending on what ipecac/Commodore do.

It may delay a flatland city by a turn, but knowing where to plant it is more important.  If he plants on the closer hill, the supercity site actually is an option worth considering.

[OT4E]

What if you plant 1E from marble? It is flat but it still denies zulu any viable location except risky one right below from your city near the pig.

The main pros of this location is that you can plant 1 turn earlier and have 3 axes in time. There is a chance that if ipecac doesnt declare you by himself you can kick his settling party.

Long term this city is fine because of lake to the diagonal tile. You can construct walls before ipecac/commodore can bring enough forces and when it comes to construction bonus from hills is less relevant.

Also as minor bonus this city claims fish in the 2nd ring.

But first and main reason is that 1 turn changes everything in this game. I would prefer to give my opponent a chance to have 65% on the city with reinforcements in rather than put everything on axe+scout vs axe+impi+war even if his odds start with 30%. It is illusion that you can defend it.