Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)

[ipecac]

The republicans agreed to an investigation because Flake flaked.

The fact remains that there is no corroborating evidence, and that the multiple witnesses the accuser named do not even remember the incident or partying with Kavanaugh. One glaring inconsistency from her side is the alleged fear of flying. Her story of the attack is, as Gavagai pointed out, vague precisely at the points where it could be definitively refuted. Extremely convenient.

Also, Feinstein's office sitting on the letter for so long shows it's all a political hit job.

[Gavagai]

You're really one of the last people who think she's lying.

Were it true, it would only mean that the American political elite is a bunch of morons
The contrary is, of course, true, everyone understands she is most probably lying, and even if she is not, it is immaterial because the events have happened so long ago. But when Republicans try to understand what their voters are thinking they rely on the media too much and the media says... well, pretty much what you have said, what a coincidence. This is why some of them believe that they cannot get away with ignoring her.

[RFS-81]

I think you misunderstand the essay a bit. It's not so much about the actual positions, but about how the most controversial take is always boosted. For example, if someone wanted to argue against Bernie Sanders, they could say that his policies are too expensive, or whatever - nobody cares. Or they could say that you only support Bernie over Hillary because you're a straight white man who doesn't want a woman in power...

I don't quite see how this applies to Kavanaugh, though.

The more ambiguous a case is, the more likely it is to explode in a toxoplasma of rage. Eric Gardner was a pretty blatant unjustified police killing. But no one got upset over it (well, you know what I mean), because pretty much everyone agreed, yep, that was awful, and moved on to fighting about Michael Brown some more. 

The Kavanaugh accusation is riding that sweet spot of ambiguity. There's no way to know the truth - just her word, basically. So it's quite easy to disagree about in a way that wasn't possible with, for example, Roy Moore. Furthermore, the Supreme Court is about the highest stakes possible in the US, so naturally everyone wants to fight about it even more.

Because of the high stakes, I don't see how any nomination could be uncontroversial. That is, I didn't think there is an Eric Gardner here. But I'm not a USian, so I may be wrong about that.

3) Contrary to a popular opinion, Ford's story is very easy to check. Of course, not by "beyond reasonable doubt" standard which is used in the court of law but by "expert opinion" standard. It is very difficult to lie convincingly and consistently. It requires mental discipline and a high degree of self-control which neither Kavanaugh nor Ford have, in my opinion. All you need to do is to send an experienced interrogator to question Kavanaugh, Ford, and Judge. It will take three days and by the end of the procedure it would be obvious for an expert who is telling the truth and who is not.

Wait, if that's true then how has anyone ever been falsely convicted? How much do those experts charge per hour?

Fale convictions because of an honest mistake are actually quite rare in a functioning justice system because of "beyond reasonable doubt" standard of proof. When it happens, it is usually because the convict is implicated by a heavier evidence than a witness testimony.

But you could have an expert check their alibi before engaging in further investigation. If they believe it, you wouldn't even need to investigate further, assuming they're really that good.

Also, "an hour" is an absolutely insufficient time for a normal interrogation. It should be something about 5-6 hours with a couple short coffee-breaks.

Well, then what do they charge for 5 hours?

[ipecac]

But I think that she does not really remember the identity of her attackers and the idea that Kavanaugh was among them is a very late invention.

It's the most obvious possibility given that the therapist's notes from 2012 doesn't even name Kavanaugh.

[AdrienIer]

On the other hand, I suspect that Kavanaugh is genuinely uncertain that this assault has never happened. The reports of his heavy drinking seem to be correct and it is a very usual thing to totally forget events which have happened while you have been drunk. This is part of the reason why he is so emotionally unbalanced.

Oh so you agree that Kavanaugh has commited perjury when he said he was never drunk to the point of not remembering his actions ?

Also, Feinstein's office sitting on the letter for so long shows it's all a political hit job.

Dude do you understand the concept of consent ? Ford specifically asked for this not to be made public. It was only when the story became public (the most commonly accepted reason for why it became public is that Ford asked some people for advice on what to do and one of them spilled the beans) that Feinstein made the letter public. She didn't even tell her democratic colleagues, because Ford asked her not to tell anyone.

[ipecac]

Also, Feinstein's office sitting on the letter for so long shows it's all a political hit job.

Dude do you understand the concept of consent ? Ford specifically asked for this not to be made public. It was only when the story became public (the most commonly accepted reason for why it became public is that Ford asked some people for advice on what to do and one of them spilled the beans) that Feinstein made the letter public. She didn't even tell her democratic colleagues, because Ford asked her not to tell anyone.

A long-serving politician wouldn't even discuss with her allies how to use the letter as a political weapon? That's frankly downright naive.

Again, the deliberate naivety. The media-promoted circus never ends.

[Gavagai]

But you could have an expert check their alibi before engaging in further investigation. If they believe it, you wouldn't even need to investigate further, assuming they're really that good.

I do not quite understand it, I think you are not using the word "alibi" correctly. Anyway, a perfectly innocent person can have no alibi. Also, if you think I have said that professional interrogation is some kind of magic bullet, you have misunderstood me.

Well, then what do they charge for 5 hours?

Good interrogators are usually found among experienced police officers and, less often, high-end lawyers. Police officers, even good ones, usually do not get a lot of money. And this response was directed not to you but to Adrien who thinks that mock interrogation in the Senate counts for something.

[ipecac]

Meanwhile they've started a 7th, yes seventh, FBI investigation into Kavanaugh. The lifelong friend of Ford supposedly at the party doesn't recall the party in question, or ever meeting Kavanaugh.. The accuser gave as fake excuse 'fear of flying' for not wanting to testify in DC, despite having flown multiple times for vacations. The accusation is completely unsubstantiated by evidence.

All the bullshit needs to end.

[Gavagai]

Oh so you agree that Kavanaugh has commited perjury when he said he was never drunk to the point of not remembering his actions ?

I think it is very possible that he lied. I also think that no one could be ever held accountable for failing to testify against himself. But I am committed to a lot of naive and outdated legal concepts, like, the presumption of innocence and an idea that the accused has a right to face his accuser. These ideas seem to be out of fashion in modern America

[Japper007]

On the other hand, I suspect that Kavanaugh is genuinely uncertain that this assault has never happened. The reports of his heavy drinking seem to be correct and it is a very usual thing to totally forget events which have happened while you have been drunk. This is part of the reason why he is so emotionally unbalanced.

If he is an alcoholic to the point that he gets so delirious he could forget raping someone (a likely story) why the fuck are we even making appointing him about this rape case anyway? Clearly he just shouldn't even be in office anymore, let alone promoted, and his only place is a rehab facility!