TheArchduke sent me save, so I played first turn as I always did in my testgames till now. Save password: Alsub
So it starts with our three Longships ready for action! (3 Longships = boost for Heaten Army which unlocks battering ram)
I did run simulation after simulation and concluded that Chevduke can possibily already find out about our plan to invade Utrecht, therefore I take no risks here and moved all Longships as south as possible with 2 pillages on way.
I pillaged monastery north of Eoforwic and also its northern fish tile. The upper Longboat is going be shot by two encampments, two archers and city garrison, but in all of my testgames it comes off with 50% health and able to promote.
Southern Longboat ignores pillaging and goes all way south to greet Danish invasion force.
Seems that TheArchduke is doing extactly same thing what I did in my Danish openings: pillage monastery two tiles south of Thetford, killing archer (+10 GG points) and attack city with 2 remaining Berserkers with Longboat covering one of them.
Thetford is surely to fall at turn 4 by Danish invasion force.
With 360 gold already earned this turn, I always decided to burn it now for good reasons. Firstly I did purchase two traders, one in Oslo and another in Stavanger, they cost meagerly 90 gold now and each time when techs and civics are completed, the price of traders and districts raises.
And by buying them now and sending to Swedes, they earns their money back in 10 turns already though I intend to send one from Oslo to Danish city Odense due special reason, later more of it.
And so with 180 gold left what to do with it? Answer protect the long-term potential of Oslo!
Oslo's problem is that it isn't blessed by double fish tiles as Nidaros and Stavanger, therefore it depends upon farms to grow into big city. Now there is room between Oslo and Swedes which can be used for farm diamond.
If Grotlizard are smart and want to cripple Oslo's growth, they buys all tiles along Oslo's borders. So I buy all tiles now to prevent such scenario and also buy one tile extra for chop soon because in all testgames stupid tile picker chooses tundra forest over choppable plain forest tile.
Grotlizard aren't going be happy when they opens their save, but this is Viking scenario, who claims first, they keep it till end of the time, no playing nice. And Grotlizard has plently room to expand to east and southeast anyways.
Well then, with Feudal contract (useless but +5 against barbs is also useless) and Ilkum in policy slots, I crank out builders in Nidaros and Stavanger while Oslo builds a Harbor for much needed civic boost.
When Oslo finishes Harbor, I am going produce a builder there too. Three builders in beginning to improve some plain hills and farms. Also some chop forests with 100% Naval Maritimes policy card soon.
I did toss down commerical hubs in Stavanger and Nidaros to keep costs very low and I adjusted Stavanger's tiles so it grow in 2 turns. The reason for this is that when both Oslo and Stavanger hit size 3, I can toss down encampments for very low cost too before finishing first tech.
It is much better to toss down districts now and build them later for 2 turns instead tossing down them later with build time of 10 turns, after all this is a 60 turn scenario, every turn counts here!
I start with Apprenticeship because second tech is going be finished at turn 7 mostly and when I take Utrecht at turn 6, at least I want able to buy Berserker in Utrecht. After Apprenticeship it is Longships.
I did send starting trader to Kopingsvik for 9 GPT and archer from Nidaros in direction of Utrecht where it can shoot French units from city when I capture Utrecht.
Now the million dollar question, is Chevduke going find out about our plan to invade Utrecht? They may find out at turn 3 when they opens their save in worst case and in best case they finds out at turn 4.
If Danish also smuggles two Berserkers from Denmark to England similar what I did in my Danish playthroughs, then they shall find out at turn 3.
I outlined the position of smugglers, at next turn Danish Longship is forced to protect the Berserker two tiles above Utrecht if Chevduke do smuggle Berserkers to England.
In that case I can pin all of three Longships against all coastal tiles next Utrecht before Chevduke can react, this is why I did move all Longships as south as possible this turn.
What if Chevduke don't use smugglers? Then I might pillage a bit more but at other side maybe better to attack Utrecht already with Chevduke finding it out at turn 3 already.
There are several factors here:
- The most northern Berserker is forced to wait one turn to prevent getting shot by Utrecht, I can alternatively protect it with Longship but it however has to leave tile next Utrecht and leaves a opening for Chevduke to push their Longship in it at their turn 5.
By allowing one Berserker wait for 1 turn, capture of Utrecht might be delayed for 1 turn. But there is a way to make Utrecht fall at turn 6 already which brings us at next factor:
-In all games no matter what, Utrecht strength shall drop to 26 at turn 2 due French Knight leaving. Which means our Longships can do decent damage to make conquest certainely at turn 6. At turn 3 Utrecht strength shall raise to 44 as always.
But Chevduke is going to notice it at turn 3 already and attempt to block coastal tiles next Utrecht. I can counter it by blocking all coastal tiles next Utrecht at turn 2 already but it means no further pillaging gains except market of Utrecht's commerical hub.
In this scenario it is therefore important to check where Chevduke's Longship is going. Danish Longship got 6 movement points instead Norway's 8. So if most right coastal tile of Utrecht can't be reached by Danish Longship in 1 turn, then it means that I can make additional pillage with most northern Longship.
-Chevduke finishes their first tech at turn 3 (we turn 4 due slightly lower tech per turn than Chevduke from beginning), it is critical which tech it is. If it is Longships, then it means that Chevduke can buy Longships at turn 3 and have them block Utrecht at turn 4. How do we know which tech they did finish?
Aanswer: send our trader from Oslo to Odense at turn 2. This raises our access view to level where we can see which tech they did complete. That is why I did buy trader this turn and send it to Odense with 6 GPT instead Kopingsvik for 9 GPT.
If Chevduke did indeed finish Longships, that mean that we can't retreat our Longships from Utrecht's coastal waters no matter what. So most northern Berserker has to wait one turn.
If Chevduke didn't finish Longships, then western Longship can scout where their sole Longship is. Is it far away, then I can cover most northern Berserker so he can join attack one turn earlier.
-The final and most dangerous factor: in 9 of 10 games I managed to capture Utrecht at turn 6. 1 of 10 games it failed, because French placed his knight in Utrecht raising its def to 54, making Utrecht very diffcult to capture without casualties or Chevduke maybe even managing to capture Utrecht instead us.
This factor is purely laid in hands of RNG rolls, 1 in 10 chance that everthing goes south, praying here.
So many factors here that can interference conquest of Utrecht, we shall see whether our high risk gamble pays off or not.