[SPOILERS] TheArchduke and the Dutch plunder and pillage

[TheArchduke]

Upgrades.

Way too many ships, not enough gold.

   

[TheArchduke]

Oh. Hmm, this might take a bit.

So information for me on this turn:

Japper dows Emperor K
Japper foregoes the Great Admiral for Emperor K? 
Chevalier comes with an alliance

Expiry dates of DoFs are:

3 turns until Arabia expires. He has frigates and did a massive upgrade round.
16 turns until DoF with England expires. He has GAs but is busy with Japper I suppose.

So Arabia will be free to fight me, England will be easy prey as will be Indonesia.
America could be eaten by Arabia.

Chev is competent in war, as is Emperor K by now.

Emperor K has 1000 gold left.

Longterm Chevalier has more development and has a much better plan then the others have.

Basically Chevalier is puffing his chest and saying do not attack me. Let´s ally.

So much stuff at once. Let´s make a list.

Points in favour of an alliance:

Chevalier is the strongest civ (this will benefit everyone else)
Emperor K can be dealt with. Only 1000 gold but a GA.
Emperor K is busy thanks to Japper
I can land troops on the english islands unopposed thanks to my city.
I could continue to conquer against Japper after Emperor K or turn my experienced troops around.
England will be easier for me to conquer then America for him.
My front is better concentrated against Emperor K, I am wide open to counterattacks to Chev.
I could settlerpush for 14 turns. The timing would be good.

Points against:

Chevalier is the strongest civ (better to take him now?)
Chevalier knows his shit. Frigates in defensive position, fortifications.
Emperor K is busy thanks to Japper (no stab by England when I am busy with Chev)
England will have 12 turns to prepare.
Chevalier is broke. No positive income.
Japper foregoed the GA and now it goes to England. I fight a GA there.
With no upgrades anymore Chevalier is a sitting duck.

I am not going to play the turn atm. I am sitting on the fence here.
I would love a dedlurker right about now.


Milstrength is:

Me: 1400
Chev: 900
Everyone else 300-400

[CFCJesterFool]

No Alliance. Take out all coastal cities of Arabia (keep or raze, doesn't really matter - supremacy on the water is what counts). You have 13 turn window to continue building ships/gold and then go total war on Chev. War with Arabia is mainly to farm experience for your ships to help make up for your lack of GA. That is what I would do anyway.

[TheArchduke]

This is a tough decision. I am very much on the fence here, leaning towards war.

I send Chev a counteroffer. If he takes it I am game. If not, I think I prefer war.

   

[TheArchduke]

It seems either Chev likes his chances more then I do if we do not war.

I very much doubt I could conquer him without a significant advantage (7 provinces sure are not at just +5 CS) especially completly.

   

Better to take the deal, move on England and

   

Settlerpush.

[CFCJesterFool]

Seems legit. You also need to get harbors/commercial hubs going. +8 gpt will hamper you long term.

[TheArchduke]

Longterm I fully expect a massive showdown between Arabia and Netherlands. It is now a question of who can conquer more stuff first.

[TheArchduke]

Dowing England. Difficult to conquer enough in time, I fear. I will dow Indonesia next turn and just conquer and raze what I can.

   

   

   

[TheArchduke]

I will post a bit of a summary and my thoughts after next turn.

Suffice to say, that anyone else then Arabia and Netherlands is pretty much out of the game. One has to act accordingly. England is suprisingly weak, maybe I should have just ignored it.

[TheArchduke]

Well, so much for a long analysis, thanks to someone waking up.

Anyway, any action beside killing Arabia will be irrelevant. The english capital will be burned down and then I turn around.

Reason? He is not conquering America but burning it down. Smart..

The emergency is too late and thus probably useless.

Why Emp K triggered it, I have no idea.

   

How Emp K did not manage to stay competitive with Galapagos around, no idea.

   

Ships being built. The settler push may have been too late.