[SPOILERS - NO PLAYERS] PB41 Lurker Thread: RNG Roulette with a Shotgun

[Zed-F]

Yes, it is very obvious to us lurkers that settling on Nauf's home island was inevitably going to lead to conflict. But we have the benefit of more information. Maybe it seems like it ought to have been obvious to Rusten too, and I agree he should definitely have thought about it more... but clearly from his perspective this is less than obvious stuff.

[Mardoc]

Yes, it is very obvious to us lurkers that settling on Nauf's home island was inevitably going to lead to conflict. But we have the benefit of more information. Maybe it seems like it ought to have been obvious to Rusten too, and I agree he should definitely have thought about it more... but clearly from his perspective this is less than obvious stuff.

The other bit:. Rusten just assumed it was clear that he was close to astronomy.  Without Astro, naufrager could have won.  At least the initial battle, which could have been followed by a peace treaty if naufrager was threatening enough pain. Even if rusten were only maybe five turns slower naufrager would have had a chance to win and get peace.

Once rusten revealed his trump, he also followed up with that nasty peace offer.  So even though naufrager knows it was a mistake, there isn't really anything he can do but try to inflict pain and wait for the situation to change.

[Bobchillingworth]

Granted this is from the enlightened perspective of a global lurker, but I'd heavily favor Commodore / Pin at this point. Rusten seems to have convinced himself to engage in himself in a self-destructive (and self-inflicted) grudge match to the death with Nauf, and his secondary target is the only potential counterweight to Mali besides himself.

[Mardoc]

Granted this is from the enlightened perspective of a global lurker, but I'd heavily favor Commodore / Pin at this point.  Rusten seems to have convinced himself to engage in himself in a self-destructive (and self-inflicted) grudge match to the death with Nauf, and his secondary target is the only potential counterweight to Mali besides himself.

Agreed.

Mostly because of one more piece: Rusten's still talking in terms of razing coastal cities, forcing whips, and other things that hurt his foes without actually making his civ any stronger.  Still talking in terms of extorting some money from Naufrager rather than adding part of Naufrager to his empire, for example.

I guess some money would make his empire stronger in the short run, but someone in the driver's seat ought to be thinking about the long run instead. I'm not at all convinced that this war with Naufrager needs to be unprofitable...but it will be if Rusten doesn't even try for profit.

That said, I do have to admit his initial reaction is already being tempered. Maybe he'll end up with a rational policy once he has time to think and discuss with his dedlurkers.

Meanwhile, as you mention, CommoPin are definitely hitting the gas. They've doubled their GNP in the past 20 turns and I wouldn't be surprised if they can double it again in the next 20, while also increasing their MFG substantially. Plus, they're about a dozen turns away from Astro and Feudalism - which is defensive security - and I don't think they're far from Guilds. Give them Galleons and Knights and they can think about Donovan - or counterattacking Rusten, or taking half of Naufrager - lots of options really.

[Miguelito]

I even think that Rusten doesn't have a real counter to Naufragar's crossbows, so once there are some of those in position he should have a hard time making any fast gains (if that galleon is full of swords he might kill Bonehoard due to Nauf's self-admitted error, but then?). Sure he could penetrate deep with the galleons but nothing to win there.

Basically Rusten himself is saying he doesn't want to fight over marginal cities but somehow Nauf who could not even reach anything but the city on his continent is forcing him to do just that instead of playing out his advantage. But from the inside it sure looks different..?

[Mardoc]

The plan is to raze his Moai, and then capture (and keep) Deandre Baker in 2 turns. This will effectively cut off many of his island cities and we can easily claim the cities around sugar island without him being able to reinforce.

...
Definitely feels like the right move at this point. Easy gains for profit and it's pretty clear that BGN considers us a natural enemy. He's trading with everyone else except Gav (but he has GLH) and always rejected our OB treaties. Better to cut him down now than dealing with circumnavigation from a significant power later.

Ok, this actually makes some sense. He's ahead in naval tech, so use naval tech to isolate and capture a good chunk of territory.

I still quibble with the idea of 'hit one city now, then hit one more in 2 turns, then think about next steps' - he's pretty well guaranteeing more casualties later by giving Boldly time to react. But that's tactics - the overall strategy is rational. It might not work, but if it does it improves Rusten's position.

Edit: Ok, now Commodore has given a little more information, and I don't think Rusten's going to accomplish much here either:

BGNu have stabilized with longbows, but they've just lost a massive amount of score to a Rusten raze. They only have Moai or shrine for that much score. Sucks for them, but much love to Rusten for further improving our own diplomatic relations.

Give Boldly 2 turns to whip/upgrade longbows before hitting them again, and Rusten might actually be stuck unable to take anything else. It's going to set Boldly back a bunch to sacrifice the population to get longbows everywhere, but it's not going to help Rusten much.

At this point in time we are strong enough to take on 2 civs. The next stage is trying to make sure we can get to frigates (chemistry) before they have a chance to build (many) galleons. If naufragar refuses blank peace in a few turns then it's crucial to keep control of the seas.

But...why wait to offer blank peace until naufrager has hope? What's Rusten gaining in the next couple turns? He's not gaining any smokescreen, since Boldly will obviously know he's at war. He's not inflicted any pain on naufrager, except for a little bit of blockade and a few nets. And he's not going to try to capture anything, apparently.

Give Naufrager 5 turns of sitzkrieg, with Rusten's ships and troops moving away, and a second war to observe. Meanwhile naufrager will have built more troops, possibly accomplished a galleon snipe, and generally gotten more secure. That seems like a recipe for convincing Naufrager to try again to take the offending home continent city. Or Rusten could offer that peace treaty now, and likely get it.

[Krill]

Rusten is likely limited by total galleons and unit locations, so the question is really to attack Moai, or wait to see if he can be greedy and get Moai and other cities later at the risk of reinforcement at Moai.

Reality is Moai is generally a shit national wonder. It gives at best 12hpt, and galleons need to be whipped given urgency. So razing the city because it is large is just as good justification.

[Mardoc]

Oh, my, I just took a look at one more factor.  Right now Commodore is making 146 gpt + 12 bpt for a total of somewhere in the realm of 160-200 average beakers per turn.  Rusten in war mode is at 19 gpt + 7 bpt. (call it 30 beakers per turn average).  Rusten in peace right before the war was at 253 bpt - 64 gpt, in the realm of 180-200 bpt average.  I knew Rusten depended on Representation specialists, but I didn't expect it to be *that* dramatic. Being in Police State/Slavery may be useful for building a military, but it's crippled his research.  He's got to either get back into Rep + specialists, or get his own courthouses built, badly. Even if he were to go back to Rep next turn, CommoPin have caught him in research rate, and every turn he stays in war mode, the more they catch up on actual tech. Plus they keep building more economic infrastructure and are about to enter a golden age.

Rusten is ahead in tech by at least Compass/Optics/Astro/Machinery...but I'm not sure he's ahead in any other part of the tree.  So when CommoPin catch up with their own Astro bulb, they may actually be ahead in terms of tech, ahead in research rate, with more and bigger cities and a flexible diplomatic position. The only thing they won't have is a built army or navy.

Mr. Cairo will still be ahead, but he seems to not have much room to improve his 123 gpt + 4 bpt. I'm not sure about the rest of the field, but I suspect they are also mostly behind Rusten.  CommoPin will be closing the tech gap with Cairo as well, albeit not nearly as fast as their gap with Rusten.  Fortunately for them, they can't really interact with Cairo for a while yet.

I had this image in my head of CommoPin being way behind in tech, spending the rest of the game catching up and trying to make quantity substitute for quality - and now I think they may be 2nd in tech within 15 turns, and not that far behind Cairo either. All they need is peace for that period, and it's looking as though they'll have it.

Rusten is likely limited by total galleons and unit locations, so the question is really to attack Moai, or wait to see if he can be greedy and get Moai and other cities later at the risk of reinforcement at Moai.

Reality is Moai is generally a shit national wonder. It gives at best 12hpt, and galleons need to be whipped given urgency. So razing the city because it is large is just as good justification.

Yeah, my initial thought was he should be greedy and go for a true alpha strike, but that wouldn't really have worked. Boldly just getting Longbows has the ever present temptation to build some. They stay good for a long while.

[Zed-F]

At this point in time we are strong enough to take on 2 civs. The next stage is trying to make sure we can get to frigates (chemistry) before they have a chance to build (many) galleons. If naufragar refuses blank peace in a few turns then it's crucial to keep control of the seas.

But...why wait to offer blank peace until naufrager has hope?  What's Rusten gaining in the next couple turns?  He's not gaining any smokescreen, since Boldly will obviously know he's at war.  He's not inflicted any pain on naufrager, except for a little bit of blockade and a few nets.  And he's not going to try to capture anything, apparently.

Give Naufrager 5 turns of sitzkrieg, with Rusten's ships and troops moving away, and a second war to observe.  Meanwhile naufrager will have built more troops, possibly accomplished a galleon snipe, and generally gotten more secure.  That seems like a recipe for convincing Naufrager to try again to take the offending home continent city.  Or Rusten could offer that peace treaty now, and likely get it.

TBH, I'm not sure how much motivation Nauf has to make peace with Rusten as long as the latter is still showing evidence of preferring to tangle with BGN. He knows he's likely to be next on the menu even if Rusten leaves him alone for now. Nauf might well not accept white peace now or later; Rusten should have offered/accepted white peace before declaring on BGN.

[superdeath]

Rusten seems to know the mechanics very well, but fails to understand human nature.