[Spoiler] PB42: Rusten and mackoti play Krill playing Bismarck of Portugal

[Krill]

Updates tomorrow, but if I had one thought from this game, it's that while players civ skills might have improved their observational skills sure as fuck haven't gotten any better. Everyone looks at their own holdings, and doesn't consider their opponents. Gav has this game in the bag.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

Sometimes players have motivations beyond the win/loss column.

[Krill]

Completely true. Doesn't invalidate the point though: most players do appear have difficulty of understanding each other.

[Krill]

I'm including myself in that group FWIW. I misjudged OHs play here to my detriment.

[Krill]

Turn 172




OH is continuing to fight Lewwyn, so I don't believe he has any understanding that with no other viable expansion targets, the war between us can't really.








Called the units numbers pretty much perfectly. superjm has real units and no siege.

Turns out then, that Gav can only attack superdeath or Cairo. I mean he could try and take superjm but no point when the others would be much easier.





I don't think OH is defending properly. Or well. His only real defense is the threat from Frigates and naval CKN, but that's irrelevant really: worst case scenario is we both get cities razed and Gav wins anyway. At best it's MAD but with no expansion route, and OH holding Lewwyn and DZ's land it's war now or war later, and war now is still better than war later.





FWIW I can attack FaL out of hte fog, but it can get messy.





Still nothing defending his outer core from Cairo.





GGH is well enough defended.





The invasion stack against Lewwyn has retreated to play defense.





This is actually about half of the available units in the area.

[Krill]

Turn 173

I had to rush this turn, so couldn't put much thought into it.




OH made peace with Lewwyn. Now I figure this game is already lost, so let us have a go at communication. Worst case scenario, it's something we can talk about after the game is finished, in the context of limited war aims and fish/fish deals.





It doesn't cost me anything, and you know, if OH is going to go straight back to Lewwyn I can just smack him around a bit more, but given he took cities from Lewwyns mainland I'm not exactly hopeful. Nor do I have any reason to trust OH, but given I want to invade on T175 and even delaying that a turn is not a problem to me, I don't see the immediate harm in this move. Unless OH actually wants to work for a peaceful resolution that doesn't lead to both of us losing cities, which is an obviously bad move for both of us given Gav's position in the game.

And the galley would be dead anyway.





Oh, BTW, I've been watching gold numbers. I'm not sure if the OH gets Chemistry eot175 but I know that to get it any fast he probably has to put in wealth builds.





Galleons in striking range of a city I have no reason to hold: I can't hold with anything particularly useful until I can get walls and Muskets, and even then...I'd rather have those units to hold coastal mainland cities. So I intend to play a delaying action on the islands and gradually retreat to core holdings.





I need walls and castles in coastal cities, and I need to start putting Muskets into those cities to hold them from coastal invasion. Starting the prep work now.





Ultimately war between OH and myself is counterproductive. It always has been, until it reached a point where we had to fight to find a game winner. The moment one of us came to the conclusion that the only way to win, was to go through the other player, was the point we went from friendly neighbours to mortal enemies. In that sense, the surrounding players always needed to act to contain us both, and try to bring about that realization sooner. I reckon the sheer amount of land I had meant I had no one that I could realistically attack until around this point in the game. There were extremely poor coastal city locations, so actually being able to build a navy is quite difficult, which leaves OH as the main opportunity for conquest. The amount of land, and the lack of happiness essentially pushed me into a path that has made this more likely.

So now we end up in the position where if OH doesn't recognise that fact, we go to war. If he doesn't care about this, we go to war. If he feels threatened by me, we go to war. In fact, OH, we're going to have to try very hard to stay alive. (Thanks go to Rory Breaker/Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels).

[Krill]

Turn 174

OH sent me a message on Sunday night saying he had accepted the ceasefire. [As an aside, I will always suggest that these diplomatic offers need to be sent in another form outside the game just as straight messages: "I have sent you on offer of peace this turn" as they have been known to disappear due to pauses. It is not out of game contact for the purposes of diplomacy, it's a back up in case the game itself breaks].

That I want to try and work out communication in this game, and I'm willing to try for peace, does not mean that I trust OH.

I didn't play T174 on Sunday night as I had very little time. I sat and looked at the map for a bit when I played on Monday night. First thoughts are always paranoid in nature for me: "How would someone screw me over". That's unfair though. This is simply a ceasefire, so a more accurate, and frankly rational, way to phrase that question is "How would OH attack me?"

The straightforward bit has always been stacks of frigates covering galleons units up the west coast, with circumnavigation I have to sit stacks of privateers that he gradually pushes back as he builds up numbers. I defend with castles, muskets and making him land to then murder his units with cats and knights. This is the longer term part of the war, and I have a plan, so don't worry, just implement it.

The immediate threat is always galleons out of the fog. I have 4 front cities with OH, and the units are not spread equally, or even intelligently between them. Melody in F has very few units in it, and is only 20% culture. So I have moved some units around to bulk out the defenders there. I rejigged units around in the east cities, because OH has a straight shot at Sold American, and I cannot lose that city until after I pop out a GM. Afterwards it will get crippled by a naval blockade, and lose some pop, but that's not a problem IMO. Just don't lose the sunk GPP. HWD and 3S are both far enough back that they can't be hit from the fog, or have enough units in that I'm not terribly concerned. Eventually frigates can get into place to remove culture defense, so even Castles aren't really worth it, but dropping an anvil on Free At Last is the smarter defensive move IMO.

After that, I've actually pulled back the knight stack so it can cover both HWD and 3S. I need to add more units into Sold American though.

[Krill]

I think I've picked a stupid leader/civ combo for the past 4 games and I deserve to be slated publicly for it.

To that end, can we just concede to Gav please?

[Krill]

Actually, having slept on this, I think I do need to formally request that Darrell complete his euthanizing duties.

I can't beat Gav. He has just triggered an MoM GA, has s second, and he had Economics before the revolt
He now makes over 700gpt, and he can get Astro and Chem around the time I get there with my third GA. He has greater base MFG, and no competition holding him in place.

OH can stalemate me without much difficulty, although we both lose cities. I don't think either of us come out of this s war quickly or in a good place, so OH may be willing to concede to me, but should definitely concede to Gav. I don't think OH should concede to me, mind, but I know there is always variance in how opponents see these situations.

Cairo has done his usual strategy of nothing meaningful, and borders Gav and OH. Even if he attacks OH, I can't make meaningful headway, and in that case Gav will steamroll him. Superdeath has a bit of tech but is also food for Gav either before or after Cairo simply due to size difference and the output from Gavs GA.

Which leaves Superjm, who has the best tech in the game, but no power, and no MFG, and can draft PRO muskets. He can attack me or Gav, and Gav has the stack in place to hold Superjm off and overall and his tech with the MoM GA.

It's game over, and with PB41 ending now is as good a time to ask the other players as any.

[darrelljs]

Actually, having slept on this, I think I do need to formally request that Darrell complete his euthanizing duties.

Fool me once...

I am more than happy to lead the public shaming for your last four leader choices, however.

Darrell