The missus got a new job last November, and has commandeered my PC and sit/stand desk since then. Combined with working 4 ten hour shifts per week with an hour commute each way, and long gone are the days I can spend camped out in front of the PC writing.
I won't say life is bad. On the contrary. Just different priorities, which I figure everyone on this forum has experienced over the past 10 years. Which is why I haven't done it yet
I'm planning to start the run down tomorrow. I might get it done by T0.
So here's the deal: normally I'd try, and probably fail, to analyse the full snake pick. I don't think I can do that this game, because I can't judge why players have picked the civs. The start techs are the main problem: some players will likely have grain, animal and seafood, and others may be so lucky as to only need a single start tech type. The former doesn't necessarily care what start techs they have so long as they aren't Myst or Wheel, but the latter does.
I could have picked Babylon, as could every player after me, but we didn't. India lasted until 11th pick. No one choose Carthage or Portugal or Netherlands or Vikings on a water heavy map. I can't justify other players decisions, because I don't know what their plans are, or what their starts need.
What I intend to do, is to consider what each player picked, what their likely options and plans are on Turn 0 for the first 75 turns. Some people might think I am insulting them, simply because I don't think they have decent options for the first 75 turns, but I'll try to be polite. Again, I'll probably fail. I will go through the players in reverse order, because I do want to comment on how some players got lucky, and some didin't in the snake pick.
First up:
Dark Savant, playing Bismark [EXP/IND] of Mali
I like this pick. Originally I thought he would go for Tokugawa [AGG/PRO] of America, partly to screw over superdeath, but more because it's hard to see how you do not have the opportunity to play pirate as you only have to spend 30 hammers to reach Amphib on melee units. But Bismark is the smarter choice. Gavagai had telegraphed IND, but left open Stalin (which he later took), but Bismark is better placed to take either Henge or Oracle. Probably better placed to take both than any other player, if he can finagle the tech costs and Henge lingers at all (via 1 turn whip overflow and 3 forest chops). Mali acts as the defensive measure that counters the other players trying to make him pay for going for both wonders, and Oracle>MC for 60 hammer Mints and lock on Collosus is his #1 priority. And he should get it. Play his cards right, and about 36 -38 turns after he lands Oracle, he could have a GE for Mids. That would be around T85ish. If no one else can find the 500 hammers by that time (with no stone!) then DS should be the player to land Mids.
There are 7 EXP leaders, so really that cancels out in the first 30 turns (ie there are two groups of players), and DS should be in the faster starting bunch. He can't go BW first as he lacks a food tech, but so long as he doesn't have to go Fishing first he should be fine with the EXP bonus. If he hits Oracle>MC>Collosus+GE>Mids, then he is sorted economically and just has to find his opportunity to take land. Execution is key, and if he misses a step then his prospects drop precipitously.
Side note: Whoever gets to pick at the bottom of a snake pick can often figure out how their picks will affect other players. I believe that this can be gamed pretty well (I predicted over half to a decent level), and potentially can be used to try and screw one particularly player over in the right circumstances. Us losing Hannibal would have been a good example of this. I don't believe DS did this, and it's not somehthng a player has to do, but occasionally it's something to consider if one questions why a specific pick combination was taken. I think DS just picked up the second IND because it'd be pretty useful with only two players having IND.
Adler, playing Julius Caesar [IMP/ORG] of Sumeria
Sumeria is just an obvious pick after going for Julius. DS was never going to pick something to take Sumeria IMO, so it was pretty safe. IMP for speed to 8 cities, ORG gives him the cheap core buildings (lighthouse, courthouse) and Sumeria brings the Ziggaruts far forward and lowers his costs so he can reach classical era techs such as Construction faster. The UU is frankly "meh" in flavour but decent. It's a basic economy setup for him, and he has to find a route to fit a classical era rush. Use the EP accumulation to get more information and then HA rush or swords off boats. Don't chase religion, just batter someone down with units from the window he has more production queues. If he hits that window, then it's down to his execution. Fail that classical era war and he is going to be backward, but at least he still has ORG. Fewer things to go wrong than with DS' plan, but nothing to really help him except numbers.
It's just a bland pick. It doesn't really care about the map though, so it's safe. Just bland.
Last one for tonight.
superdeath: Boudicca [AGG/CHM] of America
For the love of god keep this maniac away from me. Everyone who starts next to him seems to get invaded. Has he ever managed to keep a cold border with anyone?
I'm not surprised that Boudicca made it to 14th pick, as she is really hard to play, but I wouldn't have been surprised if she went as first pick either. This is what I posted early (with a correction):
Quote:Boudicca is actually first pickable now. She doesn't need any civ to really work, because she has one trait that lifts the limit on vertical growth, and another that pushes the horizontal growth limit out in AGG. She has all this extra space that doesn't rely on anything from the map, so she can play with a civ that helps early expansion so she keeps up with other combos (such as Joao) if she is paired with a granary civ, or she can be paired with a civ for a specific UU if you want to be really threatening (Rome or Vikings). Or Japan or America or Greece, extra XP in (coastal for Japan) cities means no one can beat her, unit for unit. Or Khmer for a boost from the UU that dump aqueducts that give food and culture into new cities, or Russia or Korea for a later game economic buff to keep up with other players that picked leader/civ combos that give higher yields in the late game when everything is fully grown.
Boudicca is completely the wrong leader for superdeath. superdeath just fights, whether it is right or wrong. He doesn't need something to help him fight, he needs something to help him maintain and grow an economy. Boudicca needs to focus on the economy and nothing else. Focus on keeping up, in city count, in tech, in cottages, in pop, focus on being able to build the base units you need. Use AGG to blow past players who run into the wall of city maintenance and outgrow people with the CHM happiness onto extra cottages. You don't need fancy plays for a shrine or SoZ. You just get the effect of SoZ in every city anyway. Build the economy, and then everyone dies. She can't rush, she is slow. She just strangles each and every opponent slowly. America isn't the wrong pairing, because it does give that easy second promotion on gunpowder units late game, it means 8XP on every musket and later gunpowder unit you build, for 30 hammers and locked in civics! More than half the civs can work with Boudicca. Maybe Babylon was an option? But then again, maybe the capital looks sound enough that superdeath thinks America works better? I don't know, what I do know is that I want him on and island with Commodore and Old Harry.
What superdeath will do is mass build axes and fuck up the game for several people.
BaII: Mehmed [EXP/ORG] (13th pick) of Khmer (20th pick)
Mehmed was second leader picked. Obvious enough comparison to Pacal being first leader pick. Khmer is a weird choice though. 40 hammer aqueduct that gives 1fpt, 1 culture per turn and an artist slot. The artist slot value goes to zero once a player gets into Caste or Serfdom though, so there is a reason to want to be able to buil them cheaply enough. Later on you just pay the tax from the higher cost of the UU to dump them into new cities, but then, if it takes 20 turns to reach the point you would build it naturally, then you've lost 20 hammers. So really EXP/Khmer synergy is still real. Gives a shot at a very early Artist, if you want to play GP roulette. The UU is death to HA. And knights as well, actually. I'm interested in seeing how they combine with Xbows, as the pairing probably kills the idea of HA stacks as a one right choice unless it's a true rush.
The combination is...bland. There is nothing really going for it, no win condition. Just being bigger and have more stuff than someone else to force a concession. I don't think the Khmer pick was particularly good, but Sumeria, Aztecs and HRE went, and Vikings were considered un palatable for some reason? I think that's the core issue, the Vikings pick was available, and I don't know how you justify not picking that other than start techs being awful (Fishing/Hunting v Mining/Hunting). I don't even think that is a good reason. Russia was available, Ottomans exists which at least gives good happy and a cleanup musket, Carthage would probably be the perfect civ for 40 hammers for the extra commerce (OTOH, 40 hammers for the trade route which means you gain a potentially bad trade route somewhere else, versus 1 food per turn and the border pops? And Maths is available much earlier than Compass. Maybe I'm being unreasonable). But the UU is a great rush tool. I dunno, I'm just not thrilled by 1fpt and border pops at Maths.
He just expands and plays a standard game and launches some random invasion against someone when he feels he can make it work. Plays it by ear.
BeardBeard: Charlemagne [PRO/IMP] (21st pick) of HRE (12th pick)
Why, BeardBeard, why? HRE I understand, but you lost Mehmed and Julius, and PRO/ORG doesn't exist. He got unlucky with both Julius and Mehmed going, but you know what? Don't pick a combination that runs you straight into expansion limits before you can get your toys on the board. Pick Napoleon, or Asoka, or Roosevelt and push for GLH into either a Feudalism push to lock down the UU, Serfdom for spec slots and border pops, and Vassalage for easy single promotions, or standard CoL play. HRE used to be bland because the UU was a dud, but now no one knows if you are going to push for a courthouse, and an easy build play, which lets you push through to the later Medieval techs to then wage war with minimal infrastructure needed to maintain teching, or a more proactive Feudalism play which can't be dealt with except by slow mover stacks to break you first. And slow mover stacks aren't a threat unless navy exists, and that means you are essentially safe until a player grabs Astro. Unless players start running around with 5 move galleys, which isn't impossible.
BeardBeard is going to run into city maintenance trouble and is going to be food for someone that has a good classical era rush. He will not reach his UU and UB, but he might reach one of them before he dies.
Rusten: Isabella [EXP/SPI] (22nd pick) of India (11th pick)
Rusten, Rusten...look, Rusten is good. PB41 showed that he has a solid handle on pretty much everything in Civ 4. OTOH, PB38 also showed that he isn't invulnerable. Frankly, no one is.
Here though, he will have SPI, like in PB41, but he will not be the only player with a chance of landing Mids. He will have greater competition, he himself has said he prefers smaller games. But because he has SPI/EXP, his game is going to be built around reacting to other players at first, and then gradually taking control with SPI. He even has India to help with the early game, expansion orientated phase of the game. His problem, 200 turns from now, is going to be dependent on who is still around. Because most players at the top of the snake pick will not care that he has SPI, they are going to force him to use SPI for efficiency as FIN pushes though the tech tree at a potentially rapid pace, and then superdeath sits at the other side with Boudicca of America who will always have better units than he does.
India is probably overtuned. OTOH, 45 hammer granaries are weird. The benefits from the hammer reduction should not be measured in hammers saved, but on the turns it speeds up growth: specifically, does finishing the granary 3 turns sooner, mean you get 3 turns of working a first, and then second improved food tile? Does that equal being one or two pop ahead on the growth curve, for that specific city? India devolves into worker micro (no change there then). How many workers do you throw at getting a city set up with a granary and food tiles improved? Chopping 2 forests for 4 hammers means you can get a granary 2-4 turns after the founding of a city, but then you still have to improve the food resource. That can take a further 2-4 turns dependent on tile location. Those 2-4 turns can be sent working a plains hill forest (by any none-PRO leader) and, in those circumstances, India might be up only 1-2 turns on growth (as the single pop point would be stuck withing a 3 food tile, not a fully improved tile). Growing to size 2 before getting the granary, to use a whip? Don't even go there. India just does not want to drop back to size 1: it is nigh impossible to get 15 hammers together whilst also growing ASAP to size 2, so you need a chop, and at that point, it's just smarter to improve the second land tile and still chop two forests. None-PRO players? Chopping 2 forests leaves you a dozen hammers short? Working a hammer tile whilst workers improve a second food resource generally puts you at most 2 or so turns behind on growth (assuming 2 workers improving a city, food>split workers to shop, recombine to hook second food whilst working the hammer tile. India either matches, and doesn't go any faster, or goes food>food>split for two chops and has difficulty fully filling the food box due to timing issues unless has very low food yields.)
India, Inca, Babylon, they are not PRO. The benefit from PRO is that you can get away with using only a single worker to chop, whilst the other improves a food resource, and the PRO city can start growing immediately after the chop lands, (rarely takes more than 3 turns production to make up the remaining 10 hammers pre-Maths) at size 1. India et al actually need 3 workers, pre-Maths, to keep to the same timeline as PRO, which only requires 2 workers. Which is why EXP is going to help so much, those 3 workers cost only a little more than the 2 workers for PRO, so EXP/India is going to be about the same as PRO in terms of getting a newly settled city functional. Except post-Maths, where Rusten will still need to double chop to keep the speed up and PRO should being able to throw more workers at each city and just single chops but uses more workers on each food resource.
Obviously, these are generalities. The point I'm trying to make is that a 45 hammer granary is actually more awkward than might be first considered. The happiness on the granary though? That's just sound. Easy route to potential triple whips, an opportunity to turn a high food start into another whip, which is likely an extra settler or so, it's another cottage. It's a big thing. This is where most of the power on India was intended to be placed, and I stand by what I've said before: It is there to provide flexibility to players to pick other leaders that may be too flimsy in the early game. Mansa, Asoka, Ramses come to mind, as do Darius and Huayna. That Rusten turned around and picked Izzy doesn't surprise me, and is a good example of how civs should be able to be more than one trick ponies. Rusten has given up on the later game benfits he could get form other traits, and has gone for a general speed buff (EXP start, into mid game cheap buildings, combined with flexibility from happiness and a potentially fiddly granary buff that can overflow hammers into another building and make it much easier to whip that second item). His weakness is this is a large game, and he is going to run into other players who have picked for the late game.
Where I've probably fucked up, is the UU. 60 hammer, 8 strength unit that only needs Engineering (which opens up 80 hammer trade routes with defensive boni and workshop bonuses and faster roads, is beelineable via collateral Xbows and leaves open varius bulb paths) and can take city raider. And is the counter unit to knights. Everyone thinks Engineering comes after Guilds. It doesn't. Everyone thinks Pikes suck. They kinda do, but not a unit that is basically a base mace for city attacking. I call bullshit on anyone that thinks this UU is boring. I probably should have nerfed the UU to +75% against mounted at the least.
What I hope Rusten does, is I hope he finds a way to GE bulb Engineering, and just breaks people with these pikes off boats. Maybe a HG play with a forge for the 200 point GP, using an Academy from the 100 point GS, and he then powers through a caste/Serfdom spec slot 300 point GP for a golden age and eats someone. But what Rusten does, is react. But with EXP/India? He will be reacting to the players being slower than him, and preparing for a hammer blow.
Quote:Ocean: Now costs 3 movement points to enter.
Circumnavigation: +1 movement point on naval units, individual achievement completed by unfogging a single tile on each row and/or column of the map on which the map wraps.
Coastal Blockade now has a range of 1 square around the blockader, instead of 3 squares.
Drill 1, Drill 2, Drill 3 Drill 4 Flanking 1, Flanking 2, Sentry: No longer available to Naval units.
Sentry: Requires Combat 3 OR Flanking 2 OR Naval Flanking 2 OR Navigation 2.
New promotion: Naval Sentry: +1 vision range. Requires Naval Flanking 2 or Navigation 2.
Units:
Quote:Galley: Base movement 1. Starts with Navigation 1.
Trireme: Base movement 1. Starts with Navigation 1.
Caravel: Base movement 2. Starts with Navigation 1. Strength 4, -30% against galleys and triremes, 1 capacity (can transport any units). Cost 60 hammers, requires Optics. Remove ability to enter cultural borders.
Carrack: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1. Strength 4, -30% against galleys and triremes, 2 capacity. Remove ability to enter cultural borders. Cost 60 hammers, requires Optics.
Galleon: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1.
East Indiaman: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1. Lower to 3 capacity, remove ability to enter culture without OB.
Privateer: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1, Sentry. +65% attack against Ships of the Line. Requires Optics and Paper, Upgrades to Transport (not Destroyer). (Removed ability [to attack without war declaration] and [hidden nationality].)
Frigate: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1. Upgrades to Transport (not Destroyer).
Ship of the Line: Base movement 3. iCollateraldamage = 75, iCollateraldamagelimit = 70 (ie 30% hp max damage from collateral), iCollateralDamageLimit = 5. Cost 120 hammers.
Ironclad: Base movement 1. Starts with Navigation 1. Cannot enter Ocean (except within own borders). 1 free strike, strength 12, no defensive bonus, requires iron, coal, Steel and Steam Power, costs 120 hammers.
Transport: Base movement 3. Starts with Navigation 1, Navigation 2. Ignores terrain movement cost. Requires Artillery (not Combustion) (requires Oil OR Uranium)
Destroyer: Base movement 6. Starts with Naval Flanking 1. Requires Artillery (not Combustion) (requires Oil OR Uranium)
Battleship: Base movement 4.
Carrier: Base movement 4.
Submarine: Base movement 4. Ignores terrain movement costs.
Attack Submarine: Base movement 5. Ignores terrain movement costs.
Missile cruiser: Base movement 4.
Stealth Destroyer: Base movement 6. Starts with Naval Flanking 1.
Where to begin. I suppose the why is the best place to start. And the best answer to that is: because every game slows down, and players burn out, due to the stress of naval warfare once Astro is researched. It doesn't matter how well balanced a game is, if we, as players, are not able to enjoy that game.
My belief (based on experience watching these games and playing these games) is that the distance naval units can move is only half of the problem. The main issue is that the attacks can come from every direction, and the difficulty in scouting, in using sentry nets to increase visbility. That is the area that I have tried to work on.
The how is straightforward. Ocean costs are racked up high, so that boats will not come out of the fog to wipe out cities or sentries, traversing over ocean. These approaches can be picketed with sentries, and your own boats can travel along coastal paths to reach where you need to defend quicker than opponent can move units in over ocean.
Naval Sentry is a new promotion that gives units 3 range sight. Position a unit with Naval Sentry correctly, and stack a slow moving, combat empowered boat on top of it, and you have a naval unit that can see most units coming. In the age of sail, the fastest boats are limited to 6 movement, so can only move 3 ocean tiles at a time; a defender can have vision of units moving before they have to defend. Once airships are around this promotion is far less necessary, but still has value on submarines and on destroyers in their cat and mouse game.
Naval promotions have been realigned to create a rock/paper/scissors approach to combat within each era. Combat boats will always be slow, and can be attacked by boats taking movement promotions from over ocean, or along coastal paths because they can move further. The Navigation and Naval Flanking lines are only separate to act as XP sinks, but if we kept the lines combined then it removes choice: everyone just wants a faster boat. This way, there are reasons to invest in combat promoted boats (chiefly, they act as the anvil on which to break an opponents forces), but other than that there are reasons to either take the Navigation path (faster along coast) or the Naval Flanking path (move further over ocean), or to combine them (fast boats which can withdraw, which can follow up the collateral boats to break a stack that is poorly positioned).
Circumnavigation becoming an individual achievement also increases the value of scouting in a none economic manner. Now every player knows that if they devote resources to completing that quest, then this will help open up new routes to attack players. This increased value on the exploration component of the 4X game is not that important except on a conceptual level IMO: promoting players scouting leads to increased player interaction (having to negotiate open borders, consider war declarations etc), and player interaction is the central point of MP.
By changing buildings to allow 17XP boats, we have enabled real usage of the promotion system to differentiate between different bots, and to link naval strategy into the economic game. Gone are the days of just building boat after boat, stacking up and whomever had more, won. Now players have to figure out how much of the 380 hammers into naval infrastructure they want, and how it links in with civics. It has been rebalanced with traits (CHM no longer has the right to be the trait with the most promotions, but does have easier access to promotions in terms of civic freedom. Same infrastructure requirement for each promotion level though).
And then we already have coastal forts, (and now Towns which act as forts) which we can base naval units in, to get a positional advantage to enable a first strike as an invaded party. So tile improvements are relevant to naval warfare beyond "canal sites", now naval bases and island hopping opens up
Et voila, we have a combat system that is based around positional tactics which are supported by promotions rather than unit types, fits into the economic game and hopefully makes late game more manageable by players.
Is it going to work though?
I think there are going to be weaknesses in this model. I'll have made mistakes in the balancing, but I reckon the concept, that there should be a difference in movement between ocean and coast, is applicable to pretty much any tile based 4X game. But this also promotes, at least at first, defensive play. Sitting back and building will be considered easier and safer than trying to attack through the movement equivalent of sludge. I don't think this is true, but I think players will take some time to adjust to it. But generally, I'm hopeful.
Unrelated thought I just had: with the reduced ancient tech costs, it seems like Phi is the "get-Mids" trait pick, and it's lucky that nobody in the snake-pick took advantage of that. Maybe even for the Colossus too.
Basically, my thought that is without any intrinsic hammer multiplier (i.e. no stone or Ind bonuses), the only feasible way to get the mids before the Medieval era is a Great Engineer. The fastest way to get a Great Engineer is to run an engineer specialist on a forge on a clean GPP pool. Ind can get forges the fastest by Oracling MC, but that will give them a dirty GPP pool, especially if they also got Henge earlier. However, they need to work their engineer for 34 turns to get the GE. Phi only needs 20. Furthermore, the number of turns it takes to 1. tech Meditation, 2. Priesthood, and then 3. build the Oracle and then 4. build a half-price forge might be faster than the Phi leader just teching MC directly and then building a full-price forge, but certainly not 13 turns faster. Therefore a lone Phi leader from a snake pick is pretty much guaranteed the Mids if they want it.
(September 18th, 2019, 19:27)GermanJoey Wrote: I'm enjoying the player writeups!
Unrelated thought I just had: with the reduced ancient tech costs, it seems like Phi is the "get-Mids" trait pick, and it's lucky that nobody in the snake-pick took advantage of that. Maybe even for the Colossus too.
Basically, my thought that is without any intrinsic hammer multiplier (i.e. no stone or Ind bonuses), the only feasible way to get the mids before the Medieval era is a Great Engineer. The fastest way to get a Great Engineer is to run an engineer specialist on a forge on a clean GPP pool. Ind can get forges the fastest by Oracling MC, but that will give them a dirty GPP pool, especially if they also got Henge earlier. However, they need to work their engineer for 34 turns to get the GE. Phi only needs 20. Furthermore, the number of turns it takes to 1. tech Meditation, 2. Priesthood, and then 3. build the Oracle and then 4. build a half-price forge might be faster than the Phi leader just teching MC directly and then building a full-price forge, but certainly not 13 turns faster. Therefore a lone Phi leader from a snake pick is pretty much guaranteed the Mids if they want it.
Luckily, nobody picked Phi!!
I'm not sure in the "Pretty much guaranteed the Mids" is entirely true, in the sense that an IND player can just accept a dirty pool. Oracle>whipped forge gives a GE/GP in around 22 turns, build Collosus on top and that can match or even beat PHI.
On top of that, Writing>Maths can cost around the same as MC (in base beakers and turns, given libraries and working scientists). Then there is the wonder of Math chops and base production. I wrote earlier about a rough plan for Joao of Aztecs to grab essential techs then rush to Monotheism? Joao is so fast he needs projects to dump hammers into before crashing his economy, and he can plant a third city by T35 with almost no difficulty. With the reduced tech costs, it's not exactly a problem for Joao to dump in a granary and grow one of his first three cities to max size, work hammers and just pound out the Mids with base hammers and pre-Math chops either.
The PHI timeline requires MC research, then requires whip overflow, 2 chops and a double whip to complete the Forge. Then add in 20 turns to pop the GE. We could theoretically start MC on T31 (FIN seafood and no second city costs or trade routes), but that's ignoring Hunting, AH and Archery. At least 2 of those techs are mandatory. And an adjusted cost of 517 beakers suggests that a PHI leader is going to push MC out in around 25 turns. I don't see MC landing before T60, even on a straight beeline, because costs are going to increase. So I think the deadline is T85 for landing Mids against PHI, and I reckon that is achievable for quite a few scenarios. Joao could quite easily get a city working 10hpt by T40, and that should increase and it ignores chops (and Joao of Aztecs could also have OR to help out). A Maths beeline could land around T60-T70, but if this is tagged on after Masonry, then a city that has 8 forests available (not unreasonable for a Mids plan) only needs to find 260 hammers. Masonry T50 and Maths T75? Again, 10 hpt will do it.
I'm not saying a PHI leader couldn't go for Mids. I think it's a perfectly reasonable plan to consider. I just don't think it's guaranteed in general terms, even if in some games, it's more of a certainty. That has to be balanced up against other needs, such as happiness, Sailing, an Academy and not getting rushed by superdeath.
Regarding Mids, I really do have issues with it as a wonder, but I also acknowledge the importance of Mids in terms of forcing the tech race to keep on moving forward. It cuts out all the bullshit in terms of managing an economy and allows players to just go plant city>work food>work scientists>get tech>whip scientists>kill people. It makes every other player balance their own plans and intent to crash their own economy, the relative extent of every other players horizontal expansion has a standard metric that is unique to each game, and it is how they are comparing to the person with Mids. And this is why, ultimately, I don't think it can be changed. It does need to be open to every player to build though, and not the province of the lucky player with stone, the only PHI or IND player.
)
