[LURKERS] Civ 6 PBEM 15: May the Odds be Ever In Your Favor

[MJW (ya that one)]

Pindi DoWed Sub for some reason? My prediction before the start of the game might come true. I make a lot of predictions and access to weak players is the number one determinate of success in these games (even more in civ6 because it doesn't use corruption) but still very impressive.

[TheArchduke]

This war is quickly getting nowhere for the aggressor primarily and both off them from what I can see.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Yeah, if this continues, I'm pretty sure it's Woden's game to lose.

I think if Pin had gone for one city, maybe LSFR, he could have taken and burned it without prohibitive losses. Easy for me to say, when I can see suboptimal's main forces are concentrated around Threefry and he just had ancient trash at LSFR.

[Merovech]

As someone who knows very little about Civ6, I must say that these threads have been very enjoyable.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I think Woden made a minor error in his policy swap - he said that dropping Conscription lowered his gpt from 104 to 62, or 42 g/turn. However, he is still running Triangular Trade, with 6 trade routes boosted - for only 24 g/6 fpt. It's debatable if 6 faith per turn is worth 18 gold, I suppose - Triangular Trade suggests a ratio of 4 gold per faith, but purchases are a 4 gold/2 faith/1 production ratio. So it's probably a wash, and once he gets more trade routes Triangular Trade is probably better. 

Still, I think I personally would have gone for more gold. Upgrades are important at the moment.

EDIT:

Upon reviewing all three threads, I think I'm comfortable calling the game for Woden at this point. By every metric, he's got a sizeable lead over the other two and that lead looks like it's only going to grow.

First, incomes. Woden has 15 more bpt than either of the other two, and his tech looks about caught up - he's researching Siege Tactics, while the others are at Military Tactics, which is about an era behind (in a different part of the tree, so it's hard to know exactly how they're balanced). His culture is monstrous - 40% greater than suboptimal's and more than double pindicator's. Pin and Sub are both on Mercantilism, while Woden is way past that at Nationalism. That means he's got access to more and better policy cards, governments, more frequent civic swaps, his cities even grab tiles faster, etc.

But he's also got the best gold generation - thanks to those better policies and more trade routes. Woden has 6 traders with space for 3 more, pin is maxed out at 6, and sub only has 3. That means Woden is still generating 71 gold even without conscription (and he'll be at Mobilization soon for the even better Levee en Masse card), well above pin's 54 gpt and, well, suboptimal is flirting with being dead broke because he still isn't really building commercial hubs.

Finally, Woden's faith generation is unmatched. I know everyone's written off a Religious victory, because of course you don't need a religion of your own to defend - you can just murder missionaries that enter your borders with military units. But even so, Woden has essentially a second source of production that the other two are largely ignoring. How many settlers has he faith-purchased? He's also used it to snatch great people. His faith is up to a crazy 146 per turn, compared to, well, 3 pt for the others. At the 2:1 faith to production purchase ratio, that's essentially 70 free hammers that he gets every turn that the others do not. That, more than anything, is accelerating his lead.

Leaving aside income rates of the various currencies, Woden is ahead in every other metric. Land? He has twice as much as the other two. Cities? Plenty of them, and more on the way - in fact he's probably approaching the point of diminishing returns on settlers, since new cities won't be able to refund their production cost before the end of the game soon. His cities are developed, for the most part, he has the largest capital in the world, his army is the equal of the other two, and he's got a good defensible position that he's working hard on improving. If his tech lead holds up - and there's no reason it shouldn't, although pindicator will get a massive boost from that Great Scientist - he'll soon be immune to even a coordinated attack from the other two.

Basically, unless Pin and Sub (without diplomacy) put aside their differences literally right this very moment and turn and coordinate a joint invasion of Persia, I don't see any way Woden loses this game.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I don't think people should focus on victory conditions at all. They should focus on getting on much stuff as possible; which by nature is a short-medium goal. Dominating opponent is more important than getting to a victory condition. For example in Losers Chess the goal is to lose all your pieces but the best strategy is to limit your opponent's options by gaining pieces. In Reversi you want to have as few pieces as possible because it limits opponent's options even through the goal is to end with as many pieces as possible.

I put this game now at Likely Woden because he might blow the game going for the culture victory which will give time for the other players to change course or conquer the other player.

[Sullla]

"Likely" Woden? Woden has the game on lockdown at this point, and I don't see any possible way that he loses short of deleting all his units and declaring war on the other two players. As Chevalier mentioned a few days ago, Woden is crushing the other players in three of the game's four currencies: culture, gold, and (especially) faith. Bringing in 130 faith/turn when the other players are sitting in the 3-5 faith/turn range is just gigantic. Woden has also significantly out-expanded the other two players, plus he now has the largest military by a good margin. His only weakness was science and now that issue has been resolved as well; it's only a matter of time before Woden's superior size and population causes him to pull away there as well. Going after a cultural victory is smart because it's by far the easiest victory condition to achieve. All Woden has to do is defend himself, build the Eiffel Tower + Cristo Redenter combo, and pump out a bunch of seaside resorts for an easy win.

It won't take that long because the other players are going to concede once it becomes clear that they have no chance to win, of course. I'd give it a few more weeks until Woden's science begins to accelerate past the other players and that should probably do it.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Okay Woden is too far away from culture (radio for seaside resorts) to blow the game. He'll have enough of a lead to waste energy and still win by that time.

Edit: I reread the thread and I was serious when I called the game before it started. However, the map was even more favorable to Woden. Archduke might as well have gifted him a private island and an extra settler if he went through with that map.

[TheArchduke]

The only chance to catch up with Woden was to win that war. Problem is I only saw a bit of unaimed posturing without a clear goal in mind. Against a human wars a much harder affair then the AI.

Hmm, the only chance both would have is working together quite extensively and come with military.

Problem is, the only serious fleet around here is Woden´s and he will probably react to a buildup and see it coming from a mile away.

I think calling it for Woden is the right call. He is after all a builder.

@MJW

I disagree heavily. For balance reasons, Jester should probably be put on an island, but how fair would that be?

[MJW (ya that one)]

The map you ended up with was okay. Map makers shouldn't consider power levels of players. The problem was that the original map had Woden and CFCJF was way too close together. Which would cause Woden to walkover him and Pindi and Sub to fight. This happened anyway but they would have no chance under the original map.