[spoilers] The Emperor Protects(?) Mr. Cairo PB45

[Mr. Cairo]

Isn't this game using the 4.0.1.10 mod?

Yeah, why?

edit: is this about the circumnavigation thing? Because now I'm looking into it that wasn't going to be in this mod version was it? But I'm playing with 4.0.1.10, and so far me, Naufragar and GKC have all gotten the circumnavigation bonus. So I don't know how to explain that. Of was it in the mod we used in the end?

[Krill]

I'd honestly forgotten how this mod version worked because I have never played an MP game with it.

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, MS obligingly left those two Galleys in range of my new Triremes. One of those Triremes inevitably died attacking a Galley, and I had to finish it off with a Galley of my own, which might die next turn if he has another Galley in range (there's only one tile in range I can't see but it's next to a city so it's possible a Galley is there). I'm building another Trireme in two turns from Titan, and another one plus a Galley in my southern cities. Capital and Macragge are building CKNs, which will be finished with chops and a whip in Macragge. Buddhism spread to my other city on that island (GKNs religion) and it was the last turn of my GA so I swapped into it. If it continues to spread it'll just mean more whips will be available.

By his Galley positioning I can assume MS didn't think that I had, or was close to, Metal Casting. Now he'll know, and I hope he'll be too panicked about losing the seas (even temporarily) that he'll forget that Metal Casting is the pre-req to Machinery and therefore CKNs. I don't know if he has HBR, but I don't think so. It is the quickest way to get to units that can fight CKNs, and I can assume he doesn't have MC himself, because I should have seen them by now.

So this'll leave him in a pickle. Either he goes for MC to get his own Triremes, but in the meantime I can build up my CKN force to retake Baal. I did a few sims. Against just the four Axes he has there, 2 CKNs, my 4 Swords, the Chariot, and an Axe (or two if I send one up from Nostramo) would easily be enough, even losing the first CKN. If he gets a Bowman in there, that would still be enough but I'd probably lose more units. 2 or more Bowmen, I'd need three CKN, at least. Of course, Bowmen are cheaper than CKNs and Baal has plenty of food and my Granary survived the capture, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him whip a few Bowmen in the city over the next few turns.

So to try and get my CKNs faster I went looking for Gold. I straight up asked SD for 80 Gold, which I hope he sees as the price of the Furs I'm gifting him. I also sent Naufragar an offer of my Horses and 8 Gold/turn for 100 Gold. So I'm essentially giving him horses for 20 Gold. I don't know if he needs/wants Horses but I think it's a decent offer. GKN has no gold to spare.

The plan is to retake Baal at the very least. If I can do more damage, I will. but if he goes nuts and whips all those cities into masses of Bowmen, then I'll stop at Baal, offer peace, and turn on SD.

[Mr. Cairo]

He didn't kill that galley nor has he been whipping much. So I'm feeling optimistic.

In related news, I forgot that Machinery lets me build trebs. So I'll get one of those and take it with me to retake Baal. It will make it a lot easier to take, especially if he has a Bowman or two in there.

None of my offers were accepted. Naufragar just sent back a copper-copper offer, which is not what I'm interested in right now. SD offered me 4 gold/turn. Which is better than nothing. I'm only making 37 gold/turn right now, so upgrading Archers to CKNs is going to take a while. My economy will get better once I retake Baal and get that second island city.

[Mr. Cairo]

So MS is sending more troops to Baal, it looks as though he just offloaded two more Bowmen.

My plan is to stage my galleys on the marked tile, so I can send units to either Baal, or to where the city is on the mainland if he keeps on sending endless units to Baal (I don't want to try and blokade Baal with just one Trireme, he can just kill it with two Galleys, I'll wait until my second Trireme is healed and use them both to cut off Baal).
I'm building up a decent force of CKNs, I'll have 4 next turn. I'm going to whip that galley as well next turn, I need four to be able to land a respectable force.

[Mr. Cairo]

Next turn I land outside Baal with 1 Treb and 7 CKNs. I'll be able to put some other units in the boats that same turn (some Swords, Axes, Archers and a Chariot). I'll bombard for one turn and unload the other units, then attack. I'll return to my sim from earlier in a bit to see what the best ways to attack are.

[Mr. Cairo]

I did my sim, it looks as though bombarding down the last 4% defenses make a significant difference. Just in terms of the Treb surviving it means a 9% difference in the odds. It will mean that he'll have time to get at least 2 more bowman, but that shouldn't really make a difference. My goal it to take the city with as many of my CKNs surviving as possible.

[Mr. Cairo]

I did my sim, it looks as though bombarding down the last 4% defenses make a significant difference. Just in terms of the Treb surviving it means a 9% difference in the odds. It will mean that he'll have time to get at least 2 more bowman, but that shouldn't really make a difference. My goal it to take the city with as many of my CKNs surviving as possible.

I misread the odds, bombarding the last 4 percent doesn't do much to the odds.

MS build a Warrior in Baal last turn, I expect he whipped an axe, but it became a Warrior because I've cut the city off from any metals. I can only assume he didn't have a Bowman in the queue to whip. Which means he wont be able to whip one this turn. So with only the 4 Bowmen already there, I should be able to take the city next turn. I expect to lose 2 to 3 CKNs, and I really hope the Treb survives.

Thinking some more on that Warrior MS built in Baal, the fact he had an Axe in the queue (or a Spear I suppose), means he wasn't expecting me to have CKNs, or he would have been building Bowmen. I might stay at war with MS for a while after taking Baal, roam with my Triremes to see if there's any nets to destroy or Galleys to sink. And to see if I do have any opportunities to attack MS. I know he has some other island cities, so it's possible I could just sail over and take them all, or more likely burn them. That would be the most satisfying thing to do. But the best thing to do, in terms of my civ, is to go after SD, and actually take some cities to keep.

[Mr. Cairo]

MS got one more Bowman in the city, I'm guessing from the overflow from the whipped Warrior.
I lost three CKNs, and had some good luck balanced out with more bad luck. My Treb survived, and my first CKN won @ around 34% odds. But I lost the next three at 50%, 74%, and 64% respectively. So overall, I think I came out the worse in the odds department. My sims had me losing the first 2 and winning all the rest.

I'm going to leave 2 Axes, 2 Archers, and 1 CKN in the city. I'm also getting Masonry, so I can put walls in Baal and some other cities if necessary (I offered a Horse for Stone trade to Naufragar to try and make that easier as well, if he doesn't accept I'll have to beg from GKC). Magic Science has Triremes now, so there's no more opportunity for attacking him, and therefore I offered peace. Hopefully he accepts, and I can go and take some cities off of Superdeath.

I also got a Great General out of the battle, which I'll probably put on my Chariot to make a medic.

I'm still number one in power, MS is number 2 (I think, I don't have graphs on GKN), and he lost a lot more than me in the reconquest of Baal (4 Axes, 5 Bowmen, and 1 Warrior vs. 3 CKNs).
Demos:


Power Graph:

SD and Naufragar are still duking it out it seems, so hopefully I'll be able to swoop in and grab some cities with minimal losses.



My plan is to launch the main attack on Cheeto, with CKNs, Trebs, Spears and stuff, while sending a couple galleys along his coast with Swords to see what I can do. I want to burn that city, because of it's terrible placemnt, and replace it with three of my own, and take Trumpanzies. I'll stop there on the mainland, I don't want to get into a conflict with Naufragar just yet over the rest of SD. But, there looks to be islands south of SD's main area, and I can only assume he has cities on them, he certainly has more cities than I can see with my maps (I offered Naufragar another map trade to try and see more of SD's land). But assuming they're there, Swords can do quite a good job at taking those that are on flatland. Even with the RtR bonus Archers get vs Swords, on flatland an unpromoted Sword gets good odds on an unpromoted Archer:



But I'll also need to keep an eye out on MS, even if he does accept the peace. Despite Baal being mine originally, I don't expect him to take losing it very easily. If he keeps up the military production, I'll know he intends to take it back. GKC is at war with him for some reason, and has been for a while. Last I saw he had a Trireme in the area, so I guess he's just using that to harass MS, so maybe I'll be able to get an ally out of GKC? MS is certainly his main rival for winning this game, and so I could make for a useful ally against MS.

Note to MS after the game ends: If you're the main rival to defeat the heavy favourite to win a game, don't attack your smaller neighbors unless you intend to completely conquer them. You'll only drive them into your enemies camp and make victory that much harder. I don't think I can stress just how foolish, from a metagaming perspective, your attack on me was.

[Mr. Cairo]

MS accepted the peace, so the plan to attack SD is on pace.

Speaking of, SD demanded my World Map. Which seems odd. He's not really in any position to demand anything, and I've been gifting him Furs for quite some time now. So I cancelled that. Hopefully that screws up his happiness, what with all the whipping he's been doing lately.

Naufragar accepted my map offer, so I can see some of SD's islands, and they're not easily taken unfortuntely:



In any case I'm building up for the attack. I'm still building more CKNs, and shipping my army over from Baal. I've also spotted a SD Horse Archer in his new cap, so I think it's safe to assume those are his main offensive weapon. So I'll need some more spears; I have a decent amount already, but they're cheap, and I'd rather have too many spears than too little.