Exp leader but not Rusten if he founded Judaism.
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[SPOILERS]PB46: (In Search of) Fine Foreign Dining, by Hannibal of England
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C'mon DS play your turn. You have one of two IND leaders, moved your capital and built Henge, but you can't be certain that the GLH was built until you log in...unless you lost a coin flip and you know that the lack of a score increase means you missed it?
Or he could just be delayed on a Sunday. Who knows.
Turn 065 - End
I've gambled.  The southern barb (version 2) I think I can safely ignore. It could attack my warrior on the forest hill, by that point with full fortification and full health, or it could walk past and step on the plains cow on T70. The reality is that in either case I can't improve on the "Doing nothing" approach. The northern barb is much more annoying. I was planning to put both warriors onto that tile, so if any barb attacked and got lucky I would have an immediate opportunity to clear the offending barb. I could do that, but I'd be accepting a defensive 50/50 and I'd then have to attack onto a forest tile, so stacking the warriors is out. I retreated the southern warrior and I'm going to give the barbs a 25% chance to win. Out of that 25%, there is a 0.8% chance of winning without taking a hit, in that scenario I have no choice but to chop an axe on T66 and Wetheral is completely fucked. There is a 2.6% of the barb taking 1 hit and I would then have the option of a 51/49 battle to kill the barb with the forward warrior. If the barb takes 2 hits (5%), then the forward warrior has a 94% chance of victory, so obviously any further damage stacks the odds stupendously high on the follow up battle. So there is a ~3.5% chance that I've fucked Wetheral, a 75% chance that I've got a straight run to fog bust the horse site, and 22% chance of losing a warrior but keeping Wetheral's future in tact. There is a slightly absurd route the barb could take, which is moving straight east, and I would have no optionsbut to retreat and waste three worker turns if I wanted to salvage the granary chops, or to take the 50/50 and possible clearance afterwards (the tl;dr is I would always take the offensive 50/50 because I could get a 5XP warrior out of it, 3XP from HE unlocking). If the barb just moved towards Owlthorpe I wouldn't care: I can whip the axe at any point from T66 (but a whip on T66 means that until I get a mine down, I'll always be overflowing a weird number of hammers that aren't "lost", but never actually contribute to anything). I'm going to take the axe with a planned whip on T67 for safety. There is a worker NW of Owlthorpe that has started a road, so I would even have the option of another 50/50 with available clearance if I wanted. Theoretically I can get the road down for the horse city with just one worker, but then the city dopesn't actually do anything. I need 2 workers to get the library chopped so I can get horse and a chariot out. The lion can disappear at any point, but I have no reason to let it attack the scout, once it goes the game just dumps another barb down, so I want to integrate that into my fogbusting plans for as long as it exists. 
Some thoughts:
I'm really far down on worker turns, but I'm also struggling to see where I can build them without making extremely uncomfortable sacrifices.
I think this is where I'm going to take a big hit. I think I'm going to have to play something a little risky: The horse city needs to use 3 forests to chop a granary and library. After that, there are 7 remaining forests, but I think I need to leave to for a wheat/incense/flood plain city to get it's own library to open resources and forests to chop it's own granary. That still leaves 150 hammers worth of chops, and at size 3 it makes 14fhpt. I don't see anything stopping me from getting 3 workers out of here reasonably quickly. Admittedly this also means no workers before T80, but I'm expecting worker6 eot73 from Owlthorpe and worker7 eot80 from Wetheral, and I can strip out the workers to ensure I have 2 workers for the horse city, and double crabs city leaving two workers for the capital (and Owlthorpe bereft). I may end up delaying the lighthouse even more to chop out another worker. I'm fairly sure that if I send the T76-ish settler from WT to the double crab location, all worker micro will be made subserviant to that decision, because the core feature is how and when I can chop the forests for a library (or granary, but a library chop at size 1 gives a granary at size 2 and a lighthouse whip at size 3, but granary at size 1 means library whip at size 4 and everything just appears slower. Happy to be proven wrong on this one though. I think there is a potential scenario around a 2>1 whip of a second workboat for immediate regrowth that might just be faster but it harms worker mocements and introduces latter inefficiencies, so it's not trivial). The issue is that I think the settler finishes later, because I have to dump the overflow from both settler whips into a work boat for the crab, and hooks the crabs one turn after founding. Because of this, it takes 4 turns to regrow to size 6 and I would need to spend 3 turns building into a settler, so I don't see a whip landing before T77 to settle T80. From a happy point of view this isn't a problem, and arguably helps with worker micro except that I still need to get both forests chops down ASAP. Assuming founding T80, I want the chops T80. That means moving onto the forests on T77, so I want the roads finished T76, so I need one worker starting T72, the other T73 (9 worker turns total needed so staggered start is ideal). So what this means is: Workers 1-3 can improve ivory T67, triple mine roaded grass hill T68, T69 one worker completes the mine, second worker moves over cleared forest or to river hill, third mines roaded plains hill. T70 two workers mine plains hill, T71 one worker finishes the mine and second worker moves to WT, T72 second worker follows and the road south is started. There are variations on this but this is the basic plan and it works provided barbs don't win every low odds battle going, or someone turns up with axes on a galley. Westminster would therefore have mines going up T69, T71, T73, T77 and T78. Not ideal, but workable. The micro for a double library chop T80 is easy as borders pop and growth@2 eot85: worker on plains hill forest roads T81, T82, moves T83, chops T84-86. T81 Worker on grassland moves N, road T82-3, chops T84-86, sheep hooked T88, plains hill mines T90 and T92 if wanted (unlikely wanted this quickly). Granary chopped T86, workboat eot89, growth@3 eot90, growth@4 eot92
Turn 066
The northern barb died, but there is a new barb near the lion and the southern barb has yet to sacrificie itself to the blood gods.  The risk is that there may yet be more barbs around teh sheep and plaions cow area that may interfere with the road building to the plains hill city location. The axe is not a no brainer decision, but will make this area "safe".  Moving the northern warrior forward shows the area is clear, but I have to bite hte bullet and move the warrior at owlthorpe outside borders as well in case I need to double up on a forest next turn. The plan is to road the grassland 2N2W of Owlthorpe on T67 and T68, and whip the axe on T67. THat way the axe can stage inside borders on T68 and reach the western warrior on T69, and the western barb warrior can't attack until T70. I don't see any reason to take a 10% battle for no reason: none of these warriors are potential short cuts to a HE unit and I need them to barb-bust afterwards. So long as the southern barb does not succeed with a 1% battle, then there should not be any other presssures on the axe. Note teh granary chop in Wetheral making 3/3 granaries compelted at size 1 (even if I haven't gotten the granary full on the first growth in Owlthorpe). 
November 19th, 2019, 02:03
(This post was last modified: November 19th, 2019, 02:03 by GermanJoey.)
That GLH is ridiculously early. superdeath is basically a goody hut for someone now.
Yeah, he has been downgraded from a barb encampment to goody hut. Prime HA rush candidate. I hope for his sake he is isolated.
Turn 067
I'll do a bit of a round up, if only for my sanity. I'm also back in need of a sub for next week. I thought I'd fixed my (extremely) old laptop but it looks like the graphics card is fucked. I'll still be able to post, and I can give directions to any sub, but I need someone to log in and make the moves. Are there any volunteers? I'll be posting this in the tech thread later as well. Anyway, onto the round up.  The southern barb died. The western barb shouldn't be an issue unless it has a back up axe in the fog. Now that my warrior is promotable, it should be able to manage anything short of an axe (I'll save the promo, can go W1 if needed). Reset and wait for the next wave of barbs to appear (unless a barb city has spawned somewhere on this continent, in which case I'm probably safe from barbs now). Note maths is 335/415, so I need 80 adjusted beakers to complete. I should make 42 this turn at 100%, and 38 next turn at 90%.  Nothing interesting happening. I think the workers end up barb busting the row of tiles the sheep is on on T73, so on that turn I can move Gilbert and the southern warrior to barb-bust against galleys. There will be a worker in WT on T71 (I can ensure it is worker1 for the purposes of written micro), and a second enters on T72 (again, I can ensure this is worker 2). Worker micro from T72 onwards:  This is the current fog busting lay out and city location. City 5 is built on T73 from settler whipped in WT on T70. City 6 is built on T80 from the settler whipped out of WT on T77. The capital settler is a little bit up in the air for timing and I am not sold on the island city location for it. The axe whipped on T67 in Owlthorpe moves 1NW on T68, then moves NW - W on T69, and moves onto plains hill city tile on T70, then play by ear. Warrior6 moves onto the plains cow on T68, and moves SW until T70 (wines tile), and on T70 I can move warrior3 (copper/fish) 1N. Then I can use Cavnedish to cover the movement of Warrior 3 to the southern black X, and then cover Warrior 7 moving to the middle black X immediately after. The unit moves to maintain the fogbusting net are always as tight as possible, any time a barb turns up I'm contracting a little to deal with it. I'm still limited on unit numbers, and because of this even though I could barb-bust all galley from teh south by around T74, I'm probably not going to be able to do it for a while longer. Note: Pink Rhombus: possible barb city spawn. Pink X: Barb buster necessary if Owlthorpe borders have not expanded. Black X: barb busters to protect City5 after founding, rough locations will vary depending on workers.  Worker and city labour micro for Westminster is below: It holds for the time I'll be away. It's possible to get the galley out earlier but then the city is stranded at size 6 wanting to build a settler and also wanting to grow. This way the settler gets over as fast as possible, but there is an interface with Wetheral discused below. There is nothing forcing me to go either way, the option is always available up until the turn the galley can be chopped on T73. Ultimately, spending a few turns working financial coast is not going to be the end of hte world due to the 718 beaker cost that is Currency.  No worker micro relevant to WT: the southern road to no where is described above. City micro is straightforward and doesn't even justify spoilers, and tile choices are obvious. T68: Build settler T69: Growth@6 T70: Whip settler and send to horse city T71: Dump overflow into work boat and growth@4 T72: Growth@5 T73: Growth@6 (the food surplus is immense) T74: Build settler T75: Build settler T76: Build settler (42ish/100) T77: Triple whip settler (124/100) T78: Dump overflow into work boat (~52/30)  Owlthorpe is about to be totally whipped into the ground: It was whipped T64 (worker, double whip), T67 (axe), and planned worker (1 pop) whips on T71 and T76. Just keep on dumping overflow into workers and growing to size 3 to one pop whip. One of those whip unhappy faces will disappear eot73, and a second eot83 and given it would take 6 turns to regrow to size 4 anyway, happiness isn't even a problem unless growing straight size 6. I calculate that Owlthorpe wouldn't make enough hammers to finish an axe by T76, but because of issues I'm having with barb-busting placement, I think I'm going to grow on a library. The precise issue I'm having is that the tiles on the other side of the western peaks require a unit to barb bust, and the library is still cheaper than a unit. Plus it opens up another forest chop. Again, precise micro isn't needed here as there is no worker attention until after T80 and the city builds a library unless it is size 3, when it builds a worker, or there is overflow, in which case it also builds a worker. The worker micro for City5 needs putting somewhere, and frankly this screen shows enough:  Wetheral was explained on a previous turn report, but the intention is to overflow over 6 hammers into a worker build on growth@3 eot77. Rice for 3 turns, then rice and ivory for 2 turns and rice and copper for 1 turn, finally rice, copper and ivory for 5 turns. That means I have 50 hammers during growth to allocate: axe plus scout for the island is an obvious choice. I need to log in again and change production back to an axe: one of the units completes eot77, and I can either load an axe onto the galley on T76, or a scout. I feel safer dumping an axe onto an unexplored island than a scout, OTOH I'm fairly sure that there are no barbs over there because none of them have been visible. But is it worth the risk? One of the reasons I'm somewhat tempted by a scout though...I could withdraw Gilbert from the south on T73, and it would be able to get onto the galley on T76, unload on the City7 sign T77 and then scout a tile per turn, and this way the galley could return for the axe and worker...in fact, looking back at the written micro, I could load W4 onto the galley on T78 after it finishes the southern grass hill mine, unload on the sheep on T79 and have the tile ready to be worked by City7 on T83. Which is when it's expected to be founded. Sure, it's a 3/2/1 tile, but in total it would give 10 commerce inclusive of total trade route improvement...and I kinda want to steal the fish for faster growth. I'll have to keep this option in mind. Probably do it just to get ahead of the growth curve in that city (it wants size 2 off the fish then work grass hill mine and sheep for a granary and whip a lighthouse. Oh yeah, why a scout in Weatheral: I can send it to act as sentry towards TBW until I can get an archer there, as City5 needs 3 fogbusters, and I only have Cavendish and two warriors "unaccounted" for. One of the warriors will be west of City5, and the other will probably push SW to barb-bust the wines/incense area and allow the other units to push out (with some dancing to ensure the warriors aren't moving into the fog). Likely Warrior3, on the forest hill moves to the southern black X, Cavendish covers the far SW, the current warrior covering the horse city heads west and a new scout covers the NW. So I feel that a scout is a decent choice of unit, and the follow up axe is utilitarian as well. The scout should be completed eot72, therefore the axe would be eot77 as stated earlier for the overflow.  Keep in mind that I am moving a further warrior, axe, worker, settler out of borders to settle City5, and then a further 2 workers to road towards City6. I think there will eb a drag on costs for a while. OTOH, Archery is almost a one turn tech, which I will research after Maths (save gold for a couple of turns and complete eot71?) and then just save, save, save. No new libraries expected until T80 though, and even then, not in great immediate commerce cities.  An AGG player with one barracks by T67 is...interesting, but what I'm more intrigued by is my stupidly low score which is almost entirely a lower pop. In a 16 player game the average is, what 6.25% pop? You can see how badly I'm lagging after whipping 40% of my pop away, but TBW is really struggling as well.  But if I have such a low pop, and I'm still 6th in crop yield, I must be growing faster than most players.
Turn 068
The barbs just will not stop coming. I dread to think how bad it would be without the barb-busting net.  The new northern barb means I can't use warrior7 to barb bust the wines area just yet. If the northern barb ignores my forward warrior and beelines Wetheral, I'll need to chase him down with the axe, and stack two warriors on the worker. As it is, my warrior would have 95.6% to win on defense, and if he were to die, the axe can clean up but that would also lead to a need to readjust the barb-busting net as well. I'll deal with it if I get another shitty outcome.  I took a risk and pushed Cavendish forward. I considered leaving him in place to deal with the lion, but since I can't move warrior3 for a bit I think I'll see if I can get another XP there, with the promotion available to heal. The barb warriors fill the rest of the holes I'm leaving in the bar-busting net anyway. The lion would have lower than a 1% chance of victory against the warrior. I had to bring back the warrior intended as MP happy for Westminster, just in case, but I made a mistake last turn, I don't think I need an MP there until size 6 on T73. I should have healed in place. If the barb were to slip past, then the warrior would sitll be full health. Same reason WT is growing to size 6 this tur, it will be able to work a coastal tile and make a bit more gold on T69 with no effect on settler whip T70.  That 83 GNP is obscene, but it's the Writing spike. Last turn max GNP was 65. EDIT: That's usually a player that went religion hitting it with a 1.6 modifier. Assuming 10 culture per turn, and costs of 10gpt (so culture cancels out costs), that looks at about 52bpt. That's not surprising for this stage of the game, more that my GNP is pretty naff. Kinda glad I picked FIN for the fantastic 5 extra commerce per turn... |
