[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

All right, so what Kaiser got?

This is a snapshot of changes in milpower for Canada and Egypt since the turn we met. Canada annotated by yours truly, Egypt by my esteemed predecessor. 



On t37, Kaiser had 188g and was making +10 gpt. On t38, he had 2g, making +10gpt. Apparently, he spent 196 gold to increase his milpower by 10, with no change to empire score or his net income, although an increase in maintenance cost could have easily been covered by an improvement or tile reassignment. 

Options?
- Slingers cost 140g and are worth 15 milpower 
- Archers cost 240g and are worth 25 milpower
- Warriors cost 160g and are worth 20 milpower
- upgrading Slinger -> Archer costs 60g and gains 10 milpower
- Scouts cost 120g, are worth 10 milpower, and would be a truly bizare use of gold at this point in the game

The only purchase I can think of that wouldn't be in increments of 10 would be a tile buy, which are in increments of 2. purchasing a slinger, spending 56g on a tile, and taking a combined 50ish HP damage to barbs seems plausible on its face. The only problem there is the barb damage, which doesn't really line up with the turns of net healing before and after. Perhaps a barb charged out of the fog, attacked, and was hit by two or three units in return? There is a horse nearby, which makes that kind of surprise attack more likely. 

Bologna has revealed to us that Ed Mercer has a 3rd ring floodplains tile with a Sphinx improvement, which definitely wasn't acquired culturally. On t41, Kaiser gets +5 era points, and a turn later his culture income increases by 1. I'm feeling pretty good about the tile purchase explanation. I'll bet the 76g expenditure on t48 is another tile buy.

When we first meet Kaiser on t34, he has 43 milpower. On t44, we see two injured warriors, likely worth 18 and 19 milpower. He has 48 milpower, and he had taken a net loss of 12 milpower over the previous four turns (no data for t41-t43). That's 11 existing milpower unaccounted for, which cannot possibly include an archer. We know there was at least one other unit when we met to make the 43 number work, and we strongly suspect a slinger purchase. We also saw a four point jump the turn before the slinger purchase, which is most likely three units healing, one in friendly lands, two outside. The two point gains we see on t39 and t40 could be one unit in friendly lands or two outside. Two unknowns plus the warrior going from 43 to 29 milpower could be warior, slinger, slinger with a combined 70 HP of damage, losing a slinger, and healing 10HP net. An 80HP warrior (18), a 90 HP warrior (19) and a 60 HP slinger (11) totals 48 milpower, exactly right. 

The turn after he takes 40 HP damage and clears a barb camp. The turn after that, another 40 HP damage. The turn after that, he nets 43 milpower, which looks a lot like build a warrior, build an archer, take 20 HP damage. We know he has an archer, and there's been no gold drop and milpower spike that could indicate an archer upgrade, so he must have built one. He couldn't have built a slinger on the same turn, he would be foolish to build a scout, so by far the most likely second unit is a warrior. That would mean that the injured solo slinger in the fog took a net loss of 100 HP over three turns without dying, which is definitely not possible. 

If we assume both of those slingers survived in a crippled state up to this point, that 12 point drop earlier could have been a combined 120HP drop, leaving the two warriors (18+19) and two crippled slingers (average 30HP each). Those units could not have absorbed a net loss of 80HP over the next two turns and cleared a barb camp, so that's out. 

Maybe I've underestimated the damage on the visible units. They could conceivably be worth 17 and 18 milpower, which leaves 13 milpower points on t44 to clear a barb camp at a net loss of at least 100 HP over three turns, and probably more on the turn after. The weakest a warrior can possibly be is 10 milpower, and the weakest a slinger can possibly be is 5. There must be two units there to absorb that much damage, which means either two slingers, or a warrior or slinger plus a scout. 

It is possible that a damaged scout or a very badly damaged slinger could have died on a turn with a four or five milpower loss, but that unit would have had to be very damaged when we met Kaiser and not have healed very much since. From t41 to t56, Kaiser added 45 points from the archer and warrior constructed t47, and lost a net of 14 points with those additions excluded. Given the amount of healing he's done over the last few turns and the fact that he just began to move units against me, it seems likely that whatever he has is mostly or completely healthy by now. That 14 point loss sure looks like a dead slinger, which could only have happened between t41 and t44, or on t48 if some other units healed that turn, but with the units I can fit into his milpower score, I can't imagine how he was able to tank as much damage as he did without losing one of them. 

What am I missing here? I played a test game to see if city damage affects your milpower score, which it does not, but I did notice some strangeness when an AI moved a lightly damaged warrior into their city and lost a point of milpower. Maybe there's some weird rounding that went into this calculation?

Anyway, forrest; trees. Kaiser is at 92 milpower. Two warriors, an archer, and a slinger totals 80. The remaining unit is most likely an additional slinger which was severely damaged in combat with barbarians A scout is also a possibility. The only possible turns for an archer upgrade are t45 or t45, which saw net losses of -4 milpower each. Disguising a 10 point bump there would have required the loss of a preexisting unit which I cannot account for. However, Kaiser does still have at least one slinger, and will have the gold necessary for two archer upgrades next turn, so he has enough troops to wreck my day if I'm not careful. That's the really important information here.

[williams482]

Turn 57: 

Those idiot barbarians attacked me! That means I definitely could clear this camp next turn (or even this turn), but with two turns left in the era, six era points needed for a GA, and no likely source of the additional three points (Levy plan is out, horseman won't complete until the new era) I think I'm better off waiting. Warrior fortifies and awaits the next ill-conceived onslaught. 



Speaking of Bologna's units, they've gotten in on the action, with one of them exchanging blows with a Kaiser warrior: 



After that long and tangled journey through the milpower changes, I still managed to put down an obvious error: Kaiser had two warriors and another unit, bought a slinger, built a warrior and an archer, and lost a unit. That leaves him with three warriors, an archer, and probably a slinger, totalling 100 milpower when healthy. Of course, things are all of a sudden much worse:

[Well dagnabbit, I thought I took a picture. Relevant information: Gordon Malloy has 36 strength]

That's a new unit in Gordon Malloy, either a horse or a sword. Horse is more likely, we know Kaiser has had horses available for some time, and that iron mine went down just this turn. His milpower jump is a clean 36, and since we know he took 20-30 HP of damage fighting Bologna's warriors, he must have healed a similar amount somewhere else. There's been no drop in gold, so we know this wasn't an upgrade, and likewise that slinger and/or warrior upgrades are still on the table. To hell with the encampment, I want Walls in Bruins yesterday. 

Ancient Walls cost 80 hammers. Bruins has two turns left on it's archer in Agoge, Masonry has two turns of research left. Decent timing there. The Archer is currently 50/60 hammers, and Bruins makes 6.3 base, 9.3 effective with Agoge running. That's going to overflow ~8 hammers, of which only 5 will survive the incredibly stupid overflow mechanics. That's a rounding error off from what good mechanics would leave behind, so fine. 

Bruins will grow in five turns, on t62. If I'm counting tile costs correctly, that's right after the fastest possible time for that horse to hit our city. Thank goodness for our tangled mess of rivers! If we go straight to walls starting t59, we'll put in 11.3+6.3+6.3=24 hammers before growth, and will need an additional 7 turns to knock out the remaining 56 production at pop 3. That's an eternity, but I have to hope our horses will buy us some time and prevent Kaiser from flanking our ranged units and sieging the city. Suffice it to say I won't be going builder -> AH in Blues just yet. 

Once again, I have a decision to make with the western warrior. My plan was to cross the river to the other stone tile and work my way back around, but is there any value in checking on Kaiser's advance force here? I'm pretty confident that his military contains three warriors, one archer, one horseman, and one slinger or scout. The archer stands alone at present, with the warrior I've already seen somewhere nearby. Most likely there is a second warrior in the mix nearby, probably right around Gordon Malloy's borders waiting to be upgraded. With this considered, I don't expect to learn anything of significance by sticking to the dangerous side of the river and I really do not want to lose this unit, so I cross, revealing Kaiser's warrior: 



Kaiser is not in oligarchy and we are, so while that won't help our city defense much, our warriors beat his in the open field, and we'll have two warriors, two archers, and a horse defending a city against two warriors, one archer, and a horse. He's going to add more units to that, but so will we, and barring some really sloppy tactics from your truly, I should at least be able to stall enough to get a proper quagmire going. My hope is that rough parity in the field plus walls going up will be enough to get Kaiser asking for peace, and if I'm really lucky I might be able to slip a settler to the Hurricanes spot a turn or two after. 

That one is a total pipe dream, but you gotta have hope. 

Scores: 




- Kaiser, in addition to his military growth, added a tech and two points of empire score. I forgot to check the GP screen (need better notes!) so I'm not sure if last turn's bump was a district, but this one I'm logging as pop/buildings. I know the Gordon Malloy campus is not complete, and I also know that Kaiser had a Library and Ancestral Hall in progress recently. 
- Ichabod has vaulted into 2nd place, adding probably a district and three era score (+3 district?)
- Woden had no observable changes
- Suboptimal added three empire score, probably a district and a pop

And howdy Cornflakes. Good to know I'm not alone in here. 

[williams482]

Oh, another note: The lake by Bologna is is "Ichkeul lake." It's real location is in Tunisia, less than 40 miles from the ruins of Carthage. Hello Woden, and good call Chevalier!

[williams482]

Turn 58:

No attacks from the barbarians this turn, or anyone else. Kaiser has moved his archer to the jungle hill where an encampment will soon go. The jungle adds defense, but I believe that it also "elevates" the tile such that a unit in Bruins, on flat ground and firing over a hill, could still shoot that archer. Once I research Bronze Working after next turn, I can place the encampment on that tile at my leisure, reducing the effective elevation but also the defensive bonus and movement cost for the tile. That might be a nifty trick if circumstances break right. 



The injured slinger is upgraded to an archer for 60g, and next turn he'll have healed up to 60 HP. Between the injury and his garrison promotion, that's the unit which should be trying to shoot out from Bruins come next turn. I advance my warrior, revealing Kaiser's warrior and a lot of empty space. I am not impressed. There's a horseman likely on the iron tile this turn, and another warrior which was in Isaac with 70 HP on t55 and could be right at the edge of the fog. Four units, spread out, moving to engagement range at different times, one of them wandering into lands well within my control. I was concerned I might face a concerted, coordinated assault here, but this isn't it. Next turn, we'll see if we can trap that warrior in the wrong part of town and bring our horse in for the kill. If the warrior withdraws, I bet we can wreck that Archer's day. 



Great People, as recently ignored:



Woden has 2 Admiral points per turn, someone out there has four Prophet points, and our two Scientist points lead two other civs with one each. No other great people are being pursued at this time. 

Oh, and if the lake name wasn't enough: 



Hello Woden.

Scores:




- Kaiser got a pop/building. His milpower also dropped five points. Two or three of that is from fighting Bologna's warrior last turn. As for the rest, dunno. More barbs?
- Ichabod got a civic and three era points
- Woden did nothing trackable
- Suboptimal got a pop/building

So, no new districts this turn. That means the great people screen should line up with all the districts that exist right now. We can derive the following:
- Kaiser has two districts, the Plaza and a Campus. If he has a library, he finished it this turn.
- Woden has two districts, both Cothons.

That leaves one Campus and at least one, probably two Holy sites unaccounted for. My best guess is that Suboptimal has two districts and Ichabod three, although Ichabod's recent two point empire score bump could just as easily be pop/buildings. With that, two scenarios:

Ichabod is the pious one: he has two holy sites, the plaza, and designs on the maybe-broken Work Ethic belief.
- Arguments for: Brazil is great at getting Holy Site adjacency, and a monumentality settler push backed by high production Holy Sites is a powerful combination. 
- Arguments against: Brazil has one more tech and THREE more civics than suboptimal, with a smaller pop/building score (I think). The score spikes for Brazil's 2nd and 3rd districts came on t56 and t57, and Ichabod built a settler on t52. Five turns is pretty quick for a district out of the city that built the settler, so maybe a pop growth plus a monument is a more reasonable explanation and he actually only has two districts down. 

Suboptimal is the pious one: he has two Holy Sites, two shrines, and a death wish. 
- Arguments for: Suboptimal is severely lagging in tech and culture while matching the leaders in city count, so whatever he's been putting his hammers into isn't contributing much in those areas. He's England, so he wants those RNDs, and Astrology is a prereq tech. 
- Arguments against: Suboptimal is at five civics and does not have a government, so he cannot be running Revelations, those four prophet points must be coming from two holy sites and two shrines. He finished his first district on t39, his second on t57, and getting a Shrine up already would mean he bought it last turn. Suboptimal is not an idiot, he would know that such a purchase would have a lousy ROI, especially with no competition for a prophet. 

Additionally, the unknown campus has generated 19 GS points, exactly right for a district completed on t39. Ichabod's districts were completed t45, t56, and maybe t57, which would generate a combined 15-16 points. Ichabod got his 6th civic on t52, and could have generated either 4, 8, or 13 points from Revelations since. He has 22 points, and a recently constructed shrine would make that add up nicely. That seems pretty conclusive!

So Ichabod is going ham for religion, and if he's got the plans, terrain, and pantheon I suspect, it's probably going to work out for him. Suboptimal has a campus and the plaza.

[Jabah]

If you complete G&R your encampment won't be discounted or am I missing something ?

[williams482]

If you complete G&R your encampment won't be discounted or am I missing something ?

You are missing nothing. I on the other hand... damn. 

Oh well!

[TheArchduke]

Hmm, this might be a serious war soon. Any chance for a peace and do we want a peace? I still think mil aggression is the way to climb out this situation.

[williams482]

Turn 59:

So, let's get the boring stuff out of the way. We enter a new era of normalcy, armed with new wisdom on the cutting of rocks and the value of relaxation: 




New quests: Bologna wants an Encampment (Yay!), Yerevan wants a Theater Square (Boo!). The conventional wisdom is that Free Inquiry gives the most era points, so we're going to run with that this era. I set research on Bronze Working (1 turn) and Deffensive tactics (4 turns). On the great person screen, GPP point aquisition is as it was before. Our southern warrior whacks the barb camp but comes just short of a kill, he'll be able to mop up without issue next turn and return to the real battlefield. 

Here's an overview of that battlefield:



There's the horse, as expected. He can't reach Bruins for another three turns at the earliest, and moving to that tile in particular (combined with Kaiser's warrior, more on him later) has me wondering if Kaiser has plans on Kings or Blues instead. Whatever those designs may be, I have enough troops on the field to stop what he has out. It's the yet unconstructed and un-upgraded units that pose the real danger here. 

The warrior finished healing, but the recently upgraded Archer did not heal. I wonder when that changed, or if I simply missremembered. Regardless, the new archer and the warrior both move out of the city, and the injured Garrison archer in to it. That archer can fire upon the egyptian archer, which has opted to fortify instead of shooting my city. I opt not to shoot this turn: line of fire rules are confusing, so Kaiser may not realize I can fire upon him, and with two archer shots, a horse, and a well timed encampment, I can kill that unit out of the fog with no warning. The chance of that is worth more than a warning shot now. 



Kaiser's warrior has a death wish, and we'll do our best to fulfill it. I move our warrior in behind his. Now, do I show him the horseman? He'll know it's there somewhere, and may finally realize it's time to withdraw. Showing the horse essentially assures that he'll retreat, presumably to the forest 1NW, but he could also try crossing the river to the future Aqueduct forest or rice tiles. If he withdraws to the northwestern forest, the horse can reach him only from a visible spot but cannot make the kill, and the warrior will escape with the help of his horse friend on the following turn. On the other hand, Kaiser has been extremely willing to take foolish chances with this unit already, and crossing the river towards Kings would protect that unit for one (and only one) turn. I really shouldn't base my battle tactics around my opponent making poor choices, but I want that unit dead and that will not happen if Kaiser plays his hand right. Moving the horseman visible to that warrior also brings it closer to Bruins and the anticipated battle there, which clinches it. We'll see what Kaiser choses to do. 



Archduke, I'd appreciate a reality check on the tactics here: am I going to outsmart myself scheming to take out these isolated units instead of setting defensive lines and dealing damage at every opportunity? All my civ combat experience comes against AIs, which is hardly appropriate practice for dealing with humans. 

Now for some strategic planning, necessary before I decide what policy cards are in place, and what to build in Blues and Bruins. 

First off, although I believe I can win the field here, I do not believe I can conquer Kaiser's cities with anything resembling tech parity. The terrain is terrible, especially for horses, and although I could probably make progress if I could guarantee no walls would pop up at inconvenient times, Kaiser will certainly try to get those up fast enough to stop me. Loyalty is also a major issue: even in the best case scenario of storming Isaac and Gordon Malloy, There's very little chance that I'd be able to rush through a fortified Kelly Grayson and Ed Mercer fast enough to guarantee that I keep the smaller cities. Archduke, you're obviously more experienced in winning wars against humans in this game, so if you think charging through all that jungle is viable then I'm listening. I do have some serious doubts. 

Instead, I think the greatest benefit I can hope to get from a military edge here is the ability to securely settle Hurricanes, snag some pillage yields, and force Kaiser to slow his snowball a bit. That's going to require hard building settlers while maintaining that military edge, a tall order for sure, but if all I have to do is keep him from taking my cities, killing a few useful units here will be a big step in that direction. Finding a convenient iron tile would also be nice, and I'll know if I have one next turn. 

With that in mind, I'm going to gamble that I can hold the line without additional troops from Blues (Kings, of course, will keep at it), and set to work on a builder. The plan for him would be to mine an iron tile (if we have one!) and throw some chops into Ancestral Hall for our settler push. Thus, I swap out Agoge for Ilkum:



And start Blues on a builder, due on four turns (well timed with our next civic swap). Bruins starts on Ancient Walls, which gets the graphic on the map (better hurry, Kaiser!). With Limes due in four turns, however, I decide to put the actual production into a monument instead. I can switch off of that if there's an indication that Kaiser has more forces available, but that feels like an appropriate gamble under the circumstances. 

Do we take a white peace if offered? I'm going with "not yet." I don't want to be at war with Kaiser forever, but I do want long enough to land us a favorable position, and I want to control the Hurricanes location before I lose the ability to attack Kaiser's units. 

Scores:




- Kaiser did nothing trackable
- Ichabod finished a tech
- Woden settled a new city just outside of Bologna's vision (no screenshot, but there's the beginnings of a Cothon on the lake), finished a tech, picked up five era points, and built a settler. 
- Suboptimal got a pop/building, finished a tech, and got an era point.

[williams482]

Turn 60:

Bronze working completes:



Kaiser has evicted us from Bologna, and gone a step further by taking suzerity himself. Our distant allies become distant enemies. Oh well, fun while it lasted.



Kaiser has also opted to withdraw his archer from the jungle hill, and pull his warrior back to the forest tile I noted as a wiser choice. Unfortunate. 



With all my cunning tricks foiled, I settle for just dishing out some damage. I pull the warrior back one tile to avoid the chance of it being triple teamed while maintaining a flanking bonus, and move the horse up to hit Kaiser's warrior for 49 damage, a solidly sub-par result. My fresh archer also moves up and shoots Kaiser's fleeing bowmen for I-don't-remember-and-the-interface-won't-tell-me, roughly 45. 

Kaiser's milpower jumped 79 points this turn, and Gordon Malloy is at 36 strength again. That's two new horses plus some healing. This is not a great surprise, and yet my fickle attitudes swing back towards fear, especially with Kaiser now fully capable of withdrawing his advance force and regrouping into a more dangerous cohesive army. I send no peace offerings this turn, but I may do so next turn. 

As for iron, uhh, nothing easy this way comes. Four sources on the map. One we know about, second ring of Gordon Malloy. The other three: 



So yeah, Blackhawks A and Penguins look like better cities now (although Blackhawks B remains the overall stronger site). Antioch now looks an even more attractive target for capture (lol). Suffice it to say there will be no sword upgrades in our immediate future. 

The warrior does successfully wipe out the barb camp, earning us three era points. I never did see the scout for this camp, so something to be aware of when sending settlers out. 

Research goes into Currency for the moment. It's due in three turns unboosted, and we have a cash flow problem, but also a production bottleneck. A trader would take six turns out of Kings right now, and fitting in that or the districts will not be possible unless the war ends or our battles go impossibly well. 

Some self reflection: I know how to get most of the important information for strategic decisions like if and how to proceed with this war, but I seem to be quite bad at using that information to anticipate what is to come. Obviously Kaiser is going to build units, and with his four cities and far stronger local terrain  , he can build more of them. I think with the defender's advantage I can hold the Columbia River here, but I'm not going to be able to hold the Lawrence River floodplains against a faster growing army charging down from the hills, certainly not for long enough to build Ancestral Hall AND a Settler AND walk it all the way up there safely. If I actually want any hope at that goal, forget the hall and build the settler directly. With the policy card and a chop I could get a single settler out relatively quickly, but there we encounter two problems: one, Hurricanes is going to be extremely difficult to hold if settled during a war, and two, Hurricanes isn't actually a very good city. I can improve it at the cost of defensibility by settling on the rice and moving the horses and silks into the second ring, but that only makes the first issue substantially worse. 

So in conclusion, I'm not getting a damned thing out of continuing this war. I fear Kaiser will not see the same from his side. 

Scores:




- Kaiser added a civic and three era points, in addition to his military builds
- Ichabod did nothing trackable
- Woden added three empire points (likely a non-Cothon district and a pop/building, we'll see in the GP screen next turn), one era score, and a tech, passing ichabod to re-take second place.  
- Suboptimal gained two empire points, probably a district.

[williams482]

Turn 61:

A view of the battlefield at the start of the turn:



Oh, and more great news:



The barb-buster warrior moves towards Kings, hoping for healing and expecting a scout. I recognize that I'm kinda dumb and switch Bruins over to actually working on walls. Research comes off Currency and into Iron Working; I can't do anything with Currency until the war is over and it's a relatively easy boost once that happens. Kings sets to work on another horse, due in six turns. 

Kaiser's milpower has dropped 18 points. I dealt 8-9 milpower worth of damage last turn, so there's 9-10 unaccounted for. More barbs? Kaiser also added ~30g more than I'd expect from his previous income. A lost injured warrior and an archer -> slinger upgrade would cover the strength difference, but that's slightly more gold expended than a barb camp would add. Hmm. Maybe the unknown additional scout/slinger croaked?

Speaking of last turn's damage, it's gone. Both the warrior and archer took promotions, and the Warrior is safely behind his horseman ally. Attempting to pursue with the horse is suicide; he'll be flanked on a marsh tile, take a total of 17+40+25 damage on average if the warrior attacks back, and either die outright or be rendered useless for the next five rounds. Not happening. 

Oh, and I accidentally moved an archer somewhere I did not want to be via an unwitting right-click. This is not a crippling error, so although I have yet to kick off any RNG-relevant or map-revealing events, I'm not going to restart. Just a clumsy little footnote in this lovely little turn. 



But anyway, let's talk strategy. I am outnumbered by roughly equivalent units, on terrain that offers few advantages for the defender. I must protect a long front covering all three of my cities, most of it flat ground perfect for cavalry to run roughshod over. There is a river I could hold, except that my capital is on the wrong side of said river, and the only real terrain impediments for an invading force are trees perfectly placed to provide said invaders with some cover while they pillage the countryside. As alluded to previously, this situation offers further proof of Cornflakes' deep-seeded and intensely personal hatred of Chevalier. (Do I need the /s?)

What's more, if I want to have any chance at winning this game, I need to continue expanding somehow while the war goes on, either through conquering Kaiser (lol) or pumping out settlers for some of my nicer backfill spots while holding his army at bay. The need for peace is obvious, I fear too obvious, but refusing at least put an offer out there is foolish. Maybe Kaiser's milpower drop signifies something noteworthy, or maybe he would prefer to build his obvious lead in peace, unobstructed by the inconvenient expenditure of effort required to plow through a crippled neighbor. Hey, I can dream. 



(Oh, and I could have been checking resource stockpiles starting on... t56? t57? Damn. Not that this means thaaaat much, because when he runs out of horses he can just start spamming those nasty chariot archers. As for Iron, the mine went down on t57. Eight iron stockpiled is exactly right for four turns at +2 per turn. No swords until t67 at the earliest, unless he goes Magus+2 and takes the Black Marketeer promotion, unlikely)

So, with that feeble hope laid bare, let's talk the realities of Operation Quagmire. I'm not concerned about a direct attack on Kings, it has 28 strength garrisoned and putting a horse in there brings it up to 38. The critical campus and plaza districts are behind Kings and Blues, easily defensible against a plausible assault. Bruins is most vulnerable, but fortunately also has the toughest terrain around it. With growth next turn and Limes going in one turn after, it will have Ancient Walls complete with decimal point overflow on t67, at which point it will be safe... until that sword Kaiser will upgrade on t67 walks up there with a ram. Blues is in little danger of falling with 33 strength garrisoned, but if Kaiser manages a direct assault or even an effective pillaging expedition in the coming turns my game is ruined beyond reasonable hope of repair, because that will well and truly kill any hope of continuing our already tardy expansion. So our objectives are: look tough enough to make a peace treaty seem nice, block off any potential raiders from reaching Blues, and be in position to repel a concerted attack on Bruins. 

Kaiser's total force composition, based on score tracking, is most likely the following:
- 3 Warriors (1 visible, 1 last seen in Isaac)
- 1 Archer (visible)
- 3 Horses (2 visible, the other most likely on Gordon Malloy's Iron tile)
- 1 Slinger or Scout (possibly dead) 

The only unit in the group capable of striking units on my side of the Colombia is the Archer, which is already on my side of the Colombia and dangerously exposed. I shoot it with my healthy archer for 46 damage:



I considered moving the Garrison archer out from Bruins to threaten this archer. He could have been fired upon by the archer (max of 48 damage, survivable), but no other unit could have hit him and that archer shooting instead of fleeing would doom it. However, I think I need that unit healthy and dealing max damage if Bruins comes under attack in the next few turns, so in he stays. 

The healthy warrior moves up next to the two archers, protecting a crook in the river. The injured warrior retreats to the Aqueduct forest, now safe from attack with a chance to dig in and heal for a turn. I decide to fortify the injured horse, and move the other across the river to stand beside it, blocking the quickest path towards Blues. This is a show of force and a defensive picket, but not one Kaiser couldn't slip past. Maybe the nastiest thing he could do would be to sacrifice his injured horse by charging past my lines towards Blues, forcing me to pursue and kill with my two horses while he advances on Bruins with the remainder of his forces. That flat desert across the Colombia could be a killing ground for my archers and warriors as they try to keep him from flanking the city, and with his production edge, trading a horse for stronger tactical positioning would probably work out for him. 



Oh, and addendum to earlier posts, this is the muck I'd have to bash my way through to successfully invade the Egyptian core. Contrast with my flat terrain and exposed, less productive cities: 



On to lesser domestic concerns, I have a governor title coming up in two turns, and hopefully another not long after from the Hall. In a singleplayer game, my plan would be to take Magus and put him in Blues, supplanting Pingala to Kings, send some boosted chops into Ancestral Hall, then take Provision (no pop loss from settlers) to more easily spam settlers. I doubt provision is the best option for that second promotion here, and moving Pingala from the highest pop city seems highly questionable as well. I'll have to think about this one. Obviously Kaiser's choices make a pretty big difference here too. 

The Great people screen remains unchanged, indicating that Woden's district (if any) was the Plaza, and Suboptimal's two points were pop/buildings. 

Scores: 




Times are wonky because I forgot to take screenshots before submitting and had to reload the fresh save.
- Kaiser adds a civic, a tech, and a pop in Isaac
- Ichabod adds a civic and probably a district
- Woden adds a tech
- Suboptimal passes us, adding a civic, four empire score, and EIGHT era score. That's a RND, likely a good adjacency too.