[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

Turn 77:

Our encampment completes in Bruins, boosting Military Training and Mathematics. Civics research swaps to Military Training, just a few microns shy of completion. Bruins puts a turn into it's monument, as planned. The Wild settler advances, entering Bruins. Wild should be settled five turns from now, on t83. Kaiser has fortified on our side of the Saint Lawrence: 



That could be just a security screen, but a contiguous line like that, in a vulnerable position along a floodplain? Smells like a settler path. 

Our northern horse proves quite unable to reach the camp I've been debating trying to clear. I doubt it will survive much longer with two city states assaulting it. 



Our southern horse defogs some coastline, spotting a nice reef fish and a +4 campus location, buried in the frozen wastes. I pin two possible lousy city sites, designated Stars A and B. 



The Great Person screen reveals an additional prophet and scientist point for Ichabod. He has three satellite cities with a placed Holy Site, and last turn's scoredump from taking the city state could easily have concealed an extra district, so that seems the most likely explanation. His faith balance fell to 35 this turn, an expenditure of roughly 150 faith given his previous income. That's not enough for a settler, too much for a single builder, maybe two? Or a missionary? Regardless, I won't know his faith per turn rate until next turn. Woden has also recruited a Great Admiral. 

Kaiser built another city, Claire Finn: 



And here's last turn's expansion, Alara Kitan:



(both screenshots were taken from a reloaded save, as I passed the turn before checking scores)

Scores:




- Kaiser settled Claire Finn and added a pop point in Bortus
- Ichabod added five empire score and seven era score. Could that be a Street Carnival? it would have to be in his capital, and seems a curious use of a district slot, but Ichabod has shown a willingness to build wonders and Colosseum is a very good one. That's my theory for now
- Woden added a pop, a tech, a Great Admiral, and an era point
- Suboptimal added three empire score (district + pop/building?) and five era score

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

The ironic thing is, if we'd taken Sweden, we'd be in very good shape.

We'd have easily snapped up Antananarivo using our massive warrior army long before Kaiser got there, and would have an easy frontier to Bruins. Yerevan and Antioch would also be plums ripe for the plucking right now, too. We'd have grassland, plains, desert, tundra, and even snow settles available (south of Capitals there's a not -totally- horrible snow city) which would give us max open air museum boni if we ever reached that far.

Instead, we have...this. Oh, well. Lesson learned: Sweden and Canada are not equally bad.

Hopefully the settler plan makes us at least respectable, although obviously we are now Sirs Not Winning This Game.

[williams482]

To be honest, Canada wouldn't have been any worse than Sweden if this game had used the same City State rules as the last few games. Canada's tundra bonuses and double-edged mini-DoF is probably worth about the same as an extra great person point from Factories and Universities. It's the inability to attack city states that makes Canada actively and substantially worse than even a Vanilla civ in the context of our games, and frankly makes a pretty good case (in my biased mind) for bringing back the "you can only attack a city state by attacking the Suzerain" rules.

[williams482]

Turn 78:

Military training is in:



Discipline out, Limes in:



The barb camp is gone. Both horsemen continue their return to home. 



Bruins changes production to Ancient Walls, due in five. Four turns will get them to 78/80, so not benefit from Limes on that last turn. With the Canadian five turn warning offering some flexibility on defensive preparations, I may switch to something else that provides yields at that point as the need to boost engineering is not an urgent one. 

Blues completes a settler, which strikes out for Blackhawks B under the watchful eye of a nearby warrior. Blues begins another Settler, as planned, and swaps off the wines to a 2/1 hill tile. The builder chops the Commercial Hub tile for 85h into Kings, bringing that settler to 189/200 and ready to complete next turn. I swap the tile back to Blues, and wait for pop growth in four turns to place the Commercial Hub. 

We have a new envoy from Military Training, which I haven't thought about yet. We won't get any immediate yield boosts from sending it to a city state, so I decide to hang on to it for the moment. The two strongest options are putting it into Geneva so we don't lose our two beakers when Amani eventually moves, or sending it to Yerevan for Suzerainty era score and map knowledge (potentially significant if they managed to get some boats on the water). Our next natural envoy will take 15 turns, and the next civic tree envoy will likely come at Theology, which we will probably start next turn in order to complete it on t85. The next governor move will happen when Wild is founded on t82, although Magus will be available to move on t83 and chopping that marsh for some extra pop (and thus loyalty) might not be a bad play. Any thoughts on the envoy, Chevalier?

The archer near Avalanche closes in on Suboptimal's borders, revealing little of interest. 



The Great Person screen reveals that both Ichabod and Suboptimal completed campuses last turn. That does rule out a Street Carnival, unless it was completed simultaneously with a settler. Ichabod also increased his horse income from +4 to +6 and added a source of iron. His faith balance increased by 57, four more than previous increases, suggesting he added a +2 Holy Site (doubled by the policy card). That's... pretty weak, but I guess he can't settle everything next to jungles. 

Scores:




- Kaiser got a pop/building, a civic, and five era score
- Ichabod lost a pop, so he has a settler out. 
- Woden got two empire score (district?) and three era score (splendid district?)
- Suboptimal got a pop/building

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Right now my rough assessment, going by the graphs, is that Woden is narrowly in the lead, followed by Ichabod. It's a tight race between Woden's Cothon-fueled ICS and Ichabod's Work Ethic-fueled monk economy. Kaiser had his strong start but has grown more modestly since - I wonder if his military is en route to Vilnius and the science city state up there (can't remember which)? That would have been my play - take the DoF with Canada, sweep up the city states, then come for us in 35 turns since all we'll have done is build more cities for the plucking. Suboptimal and ourselves are lagging, with sub a bit ahead.

Let's hold on to the envoy for now. If you see an opportunity for a cheeky suzerainty, that might be worth it, otherwise we can start to bank them for a surprise move later.

[williams482]

I'll hold onto the envoy for the moment then. A second will allow us to take Suzerainty in Geneva for the duration of Amani's stay there, which would give us +15% beakers until we are displaced or declared on. Vilnius and Bologna might also be accessible with two envoys, but none of those really qualify as "cheeky." I'll keep a lookout for alternative options.

What are your thoughts on city site priority? Wild Blackhawks B, and Penguins are locks, for a mix of terrain, border expansion, and boost related reasons. That leaves two settlers with uncertain futures, and a host of non-ideal sites to choose from.

- Ducks pushes the borders out the most, and should have minimal loyalty risk. Long term development prospects are solid, with a +3 campus site in the second ring, but initial tiles are pretty weak.
- Lightning has great initial tiles and gives some valuable loyalty support to Wild, but doesn't push our borders much and requires an Aqueduct for growth.
- Devils has solid tiles and claims a useful border, but it's crushed with loyalty and might be contested by two of our powerful neighbors. We can only consider this en tandem with Ducks, with governors available and a Golden Age on the horizon
- Red Wings has solid tiles and a good second ring Campus, but it's a total backfill and also requires an Aqueduct and/or Harbor for long term housing.
- Capitals is on fresh water, but has weaker tiles than Red Wings and is also a backfill
- Avalanche has good growth and bushes the borders, but no production and will be impossible to protect from Suboptimal's loyalty factory of doom.
- Stars A is a slow starting backfill city with decent long term potential

At this point I favor Ducks and Lightning, but I can see (very different) cases for Devils and Red Wings.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Ducks and Lightning seem to make the most sense. Secures our borders and grabs our only real useful tiles nearby.

One issue is going to be our extended, sprawling borders (contrast with Kaiser's nice, tight empire), which will make defending against more than one player difficult. We'll need Commercial Hubs -> Traders up soon to get some roads going, then use our horsies as a flying squadron to defend.

[williams482]

The August 2020 update drops some time tomorrow, and this part will affect us:

Amenities

Removed the free population amenity.
Added an amenity to the palace.
Increased the Golf Course amenities by 1.
Decreased all negative amenity level thresholds by 1. Increase Happy and Ecstatic’s minimum by 2.

New city thresholds:

Ecstatic at 5+
Happy at 3 to 4
Content at -1 to 2
Displeased at -3 to -2
Unhappy at -5 to -4
Unrest at -7 to -6
Revolt at -8

Negative amenities non-food yield decrease changes:

Displeased -10%, was -5%
Unhappy -20%, was -10%
Unrest -30% (stays the same)
Revolt -40%, was -60%

Blues is at +0, and will drop to -1 when it regrows to pop 7. That is to our benefit, and does affect our micro slightly: the 7th pop will now grow onto the 3/0/3 wines tile, instead of picking up a 2/1 forest for a turn before switching to the wines.

If these other civs with their large, developed empires have any amenity issues, that might also help a bit. We will need to make sure to hook up our own luxuries as quickly as possible.

Also of note: Entertainment Complexes now provide a major (+2) adjacency bonus to Theater Squares. Very slight buff to Brazil, but unlikely to be particularly relevant. We're a far cry from trying to build either of those districts right now, but this does give more reason to construct them if and when the discount is available.

EDIT: oops, I missed something there. "Removed the free population amenity" appears to mean that cities start at -1 amenity by default (except for the capital, which covers that with an extra palace amanity). That might have a meaningful effect on our satellites, but I'll have to see what the post-update save looks like to be sure.

[williams482]

Turn 79: 

Well folks, it was fun while it lasted, but we are toast. 



Oh, and just to tack on, we get this bloody imposition:



This does not make me happy.

Operation Corsi is over, we're switching over to full time military production. In truth, this is a pretty fortunate time to draw a denouncement, with three settlers out and only one turn invested into the 4th that is not to be. Blackhawks and Penguins will still be settled as planned. Wild is a question: the site is protected by a mountain range and will be difficult to invade, especially since Kaiser has no way to know we have a settler in the area and likely will not attempt to send an advance force through. However, the planned site is now at -11 loyalty. A governor will add +8, so we'll be at neutral if we can quickly grow to pop 3, possible by chopping that Marsh. Alternately, we can settle Red Wings in eight turns, getting more immediate hammers and a better protected spot. We lose the pasture culture, and it doesn't claim any land, but what good is land we can't hold? Damn, damn, damn. 

Well hey, I'm checking the turn early, I've made the obvious moves, let's talk tougher ones and I can execute them at my usual time tomorrow. 

First, what's the strategy here? Is Kaiser out for blood (what does he think he is, a stronger civilization with aspirations of victory?) or is he just toying with us? Should we ramp into military mode and try to make his invasion as painful as possible, or just keep going and hope for the best? These are stupid questions, but hey, start with the softballs. 

If we switch to military mode, what's the build plan? Bruins will complete Ancient Walls in four turns, which is a complete no-brainer. Kings and Blues can both complete walls in three turns. Kings can knock out a horse (already started) in four turns, while Blues needs five. Our next policy swap comes in six turns (Theology, unboosted), and cash-swapping will cost an obviously impractical 285g. We also still have a builder who already planned on an 85h chop, which is a whole horse plus overflow. That one seems a no brainer, only question is what goes before and after. 

Where is that would-be-Wild settler going? If we're assuming an attack, we've already lost, claiming nice land means nothing. That favors an immediate about face for Red Wings, a more practical city site for the doomed but militant Canadian, but as described the terrain doesn't make that a complete lock. 

How does one normally go about begging for aid from superior nations in your unwinnable war against a civ with an actual chance of taking the game? Gold would be nice. How much other civs are willing to give, if any, is a significant question. For reference, we have 288g, +4 (can be +7) per turn. An Archer costs 240, a horse 320, a sword upgrade (possible in eleven turns, if we spend ~42g on a tile purchase at Penguins first) is 110. 

Tactically, Kaiser has granted us the opportunity to take the first strike, but foolishly left his squishy archers sitting before us in a floodplain. We must make him pay for this, the only question is exactly when where we drop whatever hammers we can scrounge up in the next one to four turns. The battlefield as we know it now:




Honestly, I'm pissed. Seeing delusions of slim hope abruptly ripped away is never much fun, is it?

[williams482]

Some important data to add on here: Kaiser's military isn't actually very powerful. I don't believe he has built any new units since the two Chariot Archers on t67 and t68, with a bunch of small ups and downs that very nearly even out. His resource stockpiles have not been reduced since we made peace.

All told, my best estimate of his military composition is as follows:
- 2x Chariot Archer (combined 70 MP)
- 3x Horseman (108 MP)
- 3x Archer (75 MP, all visible)
- 3x Warrior (60MP, 1 visible)

All told, that's 313 milpower. 92 milpower worth of damage seems pretty unlikely, so maybe he did lose a unit (warrior or maybe a crippled horse) to barbs earlier. Even if he has 313 at full strength, that's enough to ruin our day but probably not enough to roll us over considering we have first strike and some of the advantages normally granted to the defender.

What is he planning?