[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

True about Ichabod's empire score, but Woden's not far behind. He only has the two Cothons that we know about that was all he needed to trigger his own settler wave. Man, it sure would be nice to have something like that, or jungle adjacencies, or sphinxes...

Woden has five admiral points, which is probably four or five Cothons. At a bare minimum, he has three, the first two plus a third that was under construction in a lake near Bologna when we met him. If I were still paying any attention to the C&D department I'd have a better sense (and I could figure that out retroactively if it mattered).

You're not wrong though. Woden and Ichabod (and Kaiser, frankly) are in pretty nice shape.

But hey, you definitely got that iron tile for 25g cheaper!

[williams482]

Turn 90: 

Bologna hates us again. The Rubicon flooded between Bortus and Klyden, boosting yields with no damage to Egypt's flood-proof infrastructure, and "fortunately" not killing any units. Kaiser has withdrawn his injured archer, leaving no units visible to mine. I advance some scouts:



Well, there it is. The great destroyer. And he's not alone:

[guess who forgot to take the screenshot!]

Two visible, and a third unit behind, almost certainly another Courser. I'll bet you quite a lot this is a strike force intending to sweep around my core and snag Blackhawks, as I expected Kaiser would try at some point. He might succeed, but it won't be for lack of a spirited defense. Unfortunately, a direct beeline to Blackhawks would allow him one round of attacks before the walls go up at the beginning of my half of t93, so I will need to stall him for a turn somewhere. Theoretically this river crossing would be the place, but nothing my horse can do will actually force a slowdown, including getting killed there. I'll have to make a stand of some sort in front of Blackhawks. To that end, I shift my healthy horses in that direction: 



Kaiser's milpower spiked 124 points (including ~18 points of damage to his archer), and his cash reserves fell by approximately 400, counting his existing income and the barb camp he cleared. Coursers are 44 strength (+8 relative to a horse) and cost 250g to upgrade to (125 with Professional Army, which Kaiser probably has access to). He also upgraded at least one warrior to a sword (110g or 55g, +16 strength). Two sword upgrades, a Courser upgrade, and two Courser builds, all without Professional Army, would be one way to get that milpower spike at that approximate gold expenditure. 

I really hate trying to plow through Feudalism unboosted, but I don't really have a choice here. kicking a Builder out of blues just isn't cost-effective right now while I'm fighting for Canada's survival, and the unit is liable to be captured if I do get him on the map. Feudalism is also on the path to Mercenaries, a potentially valuable civic itself in this situation. I had swapped to Civil Service at the beginning of the turn, but I reverse that decision. 

Woden is up to six Admiral points, Ichabod up to three scientist points. 

I send ichabod a proposal:



I don't expect him to accept, but he did hint at hostile intentions earlier, and this should at least signal to him that I'm in a bad spot (and maybe the time is ripe for him to strike)

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 91:

Bologna no longer finds us worth killing, and the Powingo Sipi who claimed our warrior so many years ago floods yet again, producing some nice looking tiles. Kaiser's infantry forces advance:



to the West, signs are unclear:



That's a chariot archer, obviously, which has drawn some interest from the barbarians. It has a +2 support bonus, meaning at most one of those coursers is adjacent to it. I risk a peak towards Bortus:



Nothing. I will speculate thusly that the third unit behind the two coursers was this Chariot Archer, and that the two Coursers moved to the Devils pin and the banana tile 1NE of it. Kaiser appears to be taking great lengths to preserve the element of surprise, unaware that I've already spotted him. This is fortunate, as it will give Blackhawks time to get walls up. 

Ichabod, proud owner of some shiny new Pyramids, has a proposal for us: 



Don't mind if I do. 

Something I should have given more thought to: upgrading a spear to a pike costs 240g without professional army. I have two spears in production, and 256g. Professional Army is 17 turns away, an eternity. I had planned to kick out a two turn spear in Blues, but I'm going to need to beg/borrow/steal my way to an extra ~210g as it is in order to upgrade those two. I ask Woden, Ichabod, and Suboptimal for 110g each, hoping to go 2/3. If I get just one yes, I'll ask that person again. Blues sets to work on a horseman, due in 3 turns. 

Oh hello there:



I damn near missed this guy, his green and yellow icon blends right in. Every damned advantage you could imagine, eh? He is alone for the moment, but I do need to be prepared. I pull the warrior off the Avalanche pin (hopefully suboptimal is oblivious or uninterested) and move one of the archers back towards Bruins. Walls should be sufficient to prevent this guy from doing real damage if he's alone, but Kaiser is unlikely to try anything unless he brought friends. 

But anyway, time for the interesting part. Kaiser's advancing forces are nowhere near a substantial as I initially feared. The archer and spear are supporting each other, the sword has one hidden associate. I can't kill the sword, as all I can hit it with are two lightly injured horses and an archer, but I bet I can whack that archer/spear pair pretty hard. First, the two injured horses move up to survey the situation:



I expect whichever unit delivers the killing blow to take about 12 damage in return. That unit will then take two archer shots, one of them injured, totalling an average of 62 damage, and be in reach of a mostly healthy sword. My archer can shoot that sword, and does so, dealing 17 damage. The sword's expected damage output attacking the injured horse would be 32 (taking ~28 in return), an almost guaranteed kill. Thus, I want my more injured, less experienced horse to deliver the killing blow here. The horses swap places, with the healthier one attacking for 71 and taking 13, then the more injured horse finishes the job, taking 29: 



Now the spear. I won't be able to kill it unless I get extremely lucky, but I can get some favorable blows in. One horse attacks for 43, taking 20, the next for 53, taking 20. That was an extremely good outcome, leaving the spear with just 4 hit points, but I have no more units which can reach it and he can withdraw to Bortus's second ring next turn. 



Now, what to do with the other units? I can advance them to provide some support bonuses and let Kaiser know that sticking around in this area to attack my injured units is going to get expensive, but I don't want him to believe he's successfully drawn me in enough to make an aggressive advance with his flanking force to the west. I'll have a Pike (and appreciably stronger city defenses) in three turns, and I really don't want him slamming into Blackhawks before that happens. However, Kaiser is probably already going to feel emboldened by the forces I've committed to this attack. I ultimately decide to push up everyone except the horse near Blackhawks, who steps inside, whistling innocently. This advance reveals a second Chariot Archer on the banks of the Saint Lawrence:



Things are about to get very bloody around here. 

The builder at Penguins farms the rice. No change in the great person screen. 

Scores from a fresh save, because hitting enter while trying to stick pins on Kaiser's units abruptly ended my turn:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

You're doing great slugging it out. I also approve of the realpolitik. The last refuge of a lesser power!

At this point, now, Woden pitching into Ichabod would be bad news for us, because it makes both unlikely to spare resources for this proxy war, and suboptimal frankly would like to see us cut down a bit without being conquered, I think, given the geography.

One thing to remember is to keep your forces pretty concentrated. You want a big, striking fist of units. Be careful not to get spread out all the way from Blackhawks to Bruins, but stay concentrated so you can hit isolated Egyptians with a horde of Canuck horsemen.

[williams482]

You're doing great slugging it out. I also approve of the realpolitik. The last refuge of a lesser power!

At this point, now, Woden pitching into Ichabod would be bad news for us, because it makes both unlikely to spare resources for this proxy war, and suboptimal frankly would like to see us cut down a bit without being conquered, I think, given the geography.

One thing to remember is to keep your forces pretty concentrated. You want a big, striking fist of units. Be careful not to get spread out all the way from Blackhawks to Bruins, but stay concentrated so you can hit isolated Egyptians with a horde of Canuck horsemen.

Force concentration is an important point, something I've been a little sketchy about thus far. 

If I'm doing the math right (walls reduce incoming damage by 80% at full strength), a Courser attacking a walled city with a horse inside will deal 7 damage and take 25. A Chariot archer bombardment will do 3 damage (or 13? I'm not sure if that damage reduction applies for ranged attacks). That will go up as the walls get ground down, but plenty of time there to form up a horde of horses and drive off a 3-4 unit strike force. 

This is going to become another key reminder that it's really hard to defeat an entrenched, prepared enemy in this game. Taking Blackhawks (or Bortus) will require melee units and a ram, or a whole bunch of crossbows. Both will require a battlefield mostly or entirely cleared of enemy units to actually get their jobs done. Kaiser can still do that if he plays his cards right given his production and research edges, but to make it happen he needs to get his good units somewhere they can hurt me, and soon. 

My hope remains that Ichabod has designs on attacking Kaiser, but that's a very shaky hope given the available evidence, based entirely on a highly ambiguous iron for iron offer a few turns back. Ichabod's military is now less than half of Kaiser's, and if the two of them share a border it's a very small one, and very exposed to Woden. As for Woden, gearing up to attack Ichabod seems increasingly unlikely. They both saw my and Kaiser's milpower ratings almost double in just a few turns, mine already just a horse shy of Woden. I can't imagine Woden thinks he has the troops to make progress against Ichabod right now unless he's sitting a truckload of prebuilt modern units, so maintaining the current stalemate seems pretty likely.

[williams482]

Turn 92: 

Thr turn wrapped around a little early this evening, so lets see how we're doing. First, the banal: Bologna hates us again. Then, the terribly exciting: 



Kaiser declared war on Ichabod??? Oh my goodness. 

No free money, but amazingly, no dead units either. Some counterproprosals have also come in:



Oh, thank you. A fellow victim of this ridiculous deal acceptance UI, I presume.



Oh yes, of course, marvelous. Do enjoy the wines. Jackpot!

Behold, our battlefield:



So, we have a new chariot archer in view. Important to note that they are definitely not alone: East has a +6 support bonus, West a +8. That means there are units on both of the fogged tiles behind and adjacent to the chariots. One of them is almost certainly the archer we could see last turn. The other could be anything. 

I debate continuing to peek around with the healthy horse who has been spying on Kaiser's Coursers, but decide that I actually don't care that much where they are. Blackhawks will have walls up at the beginning of my next turn, at which point it will be extremely difficult to capture in a short span of time. It occurs to me that Penguins could become a secondary target, so I decide to "place" walls there. I'm still working on the monument, but Kaiser can't know that, and it might dissuade him from targeting that more vulnerable city. That scouting horse is also the unit in best position to kill the crippled spear and tank a few hits from Bortus and nearby range units, so that clinches it. I attack, killing the spear and suffering 17 damage in return:



I withdraw the redlined horse, he'll return to fight another day. The archer and chariot archers are protected by the rough terrain around them, and cannot be attacked directly. I'll just have to see how much suffering I can inflict on that sword. My archer shoots for 15 damage. I can attack with one healthy horse, one injured horse, and one injured sword. Attacking in that order with a flanking bonus from another horse on the marsh, I expect to do about 27 + 27 + 30 = 84, probably enough to kill if the dice are reasonable. I expect to lose a horse or sword if this goes through, but likely only one, and I'll get the chance to shred some ranged units in return. First the units advance, revealing an archer:



Then our healthy horse attacks, dealing 27 and taking 32. On schedule. The now the injured horse, who deals 31, takes 33, and earns a promotion. Excellent! That's enough for me to commit the sword, who kills, absorbing 30ish damage (why is this information not persistent?), and earning a promotion I doubt he'll live long enough to receive. That leaves us with this:



The visible ranged units can safely kill the sword with two hits, and are roughly 50/50 to kill the yellow-lined horse with two more. How exactly to proceed from there will depend on how lucky or unlucky Kaiser gets, and the identities of the units in the fog. I know I can kill the injured archer, and probably one of the chariots, but his ranged attacks are going to add up fast, and I must always keep in mind that withdrawal is a legitimate option, especially with the faster units in hand. After some consideration, I decide to advance the healthy sword towards the main force. He isn't likely to be able to reach any of Kaiser's units in the near future, but he'll make a helpful mearshield if Coursers show up and I need to pull the horses back in a hurry. 



The horse in Blackhawks steps out, sees nothing, and returns. 

Kaiser's sword near Wild moves to the banana hill. That bastard is going to pillage my horses! I move the archer and warrior a step closer, but those horses are doomed. The extra forces should be sufficient to prevent him from reaching the wines, so that's something. 

Brazil is up to four scientist points. We are able to offer Kaiser peace starting next turn, if we are so inclined. Right now, I'm grossly overconfident in our chances, and acting under the impression that between Brazil and Canada, we can stretch Kaiser's forces enough that seizing Bortus is plausible. I also don't think he'll accept, because he has a gang of powerful new units trying to sneak up on one of our cities, so there's that. 

Anything about that line of reasoning sound a little familiar? I'm probably about to spot another Courser, panic, and sue for peace. 

Scores: 

[TheArchduke]

As far as I can see you are doing fine. Peace is highly unlikely, he will want to press his perceived advantage.

I am not seeing anything to panic about.

[williams482]

Turn 93:

All right, we did lose the sword and a horse, but not the horse I expected:



The only unit I can kill is that injured archer on the silk hill, and delivering the killing blow would be a suicide mission. Time to pull back, heal up, and let Kaiser come to me. The remaining horses huddle up around Blues' cultural border: 



With this particular battle at an end, our tally is one spear, one archer, and a sword killed, one horse and one sword lost. By milpower that's 86 to 72, by production cost 205 to 170. Favorable trades, and an encouraging sign. 

Kaiser's sword has taken a step back, apparently uninterested in pillaging those horses. Excellent. The archer moves in the direction if Isaac, to get maximum visibility on any additional troops that might try to shoot that pass, while the warrior takes a single step back to put it in reach of Avalanche if the sword continues to withdraw. 



There's a blizzard near Stars and Oilers, moving west (away from us). That's good news, hopefully it drops lots of fertility as it goes. 



Blackhawks has completed it's walls, and still sees no sign of Kaiser's forces. I swap tiles from the Plains mine to the wheat, which cuts the production short term but will grow three turns faster. It starts on an archer,currently due in seven. At Bruins, the newly completed spear moves towards Kings, keeping as far out of sight or range of potential archers across the river as possible. Bruins starts a horse, due in six. 

We have a fresh naturally-generated envoy, bringing us to three. Two of those could get us seurainity over Vilius (currently at war with us, worth +2 clefs) or Geneva (coastal, might have good map knowledge). Just one envoy would suzerain Yerevan, who may also have good map knowledge, but we'd be their first suzerain and I see no sense in wasting the era score from that now. The most compelling of those options is Vilnius, who we might be able to keep for a few turns given Kaiser's previous battles to keep control of Bologna (in which he has a full six envoys). There's a good chance that would reveal Kaiser's "secret" strike force, which may or may not be a point in favor. Amani is also moveable, although we'll want to drop a real envoy in Geneva to preserve the two beakers shw is currently getting us. For the moment I do nothing, but I'm curious what others recommend. 

Suboptimal is up to 13 admiral points. 

Kaiser's newly visible resource stockpiles remain surprisingly full, 50 horses and 38 iron. He's definitely not in full on war mode (fortunate, I suppose). We'll be keeping an eye on that going forward. 

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 94:

We have a new back-lines barb camp:



It has iron five tiles away, so that could be really bad. Kaiser evidently cleared out the Ducks camp last turn. Also, Ichabod suzerained Antioch, so it's units will make themselves minor impediments to his coursers instead of trying to clear this camp themselves. 

Here's the eastern front:



Kaiser has advanced the Chariot archers, fortifying one of them. A temporary advance reveals these two archers:



Support bonuses indicate another unidentified unit behind the two chariot archers. Likely another ranged unit, or it probably would have gone first. My plan for this front is to sit back, let Kaiser come to me, and smack him as hard as I can with the renewed horseman force. Thus, I keep the units near the river back where at most one Egyptian unit could hit them without being dangerously exposed. The barb camp adds a dangerous wrinkle, as a gang of barb swordsmen would be an unmitigated disaster. I expect that Kaiser's mini-horde of doom is two turns away from striking Blackhawks, considering travel time and healing from the barb fight, but I don't want to bet too heavily on that. I decide to send one of the 80HP horses hear Blues towards Blackhawks, to be able to garrison the city if Kaiser closes in this turn, while the current garrison goes on a scout hunt. Hello there:



The horse strikes for 84, taking 9. Actually clearing the camp will be a struggle, but if I can kill the scout I'll have plenty of time to get to it later. 

Kaiser's sword near Kings continues to withdraw. I see no value in taking a potshot with the archer, and taking a step towards Kings leaves the possibility of shooting something next turn, so I do that instead. 



The warrior reclaims the Avalanche site. Wild starts an archer, due in 4. Kings starts a horse, also due in 4, and Blues starts a sword, due in 3. I switch over to Military Tactics, due to complete next turn. I'll delay upgrading the spears until I feel the need, in order to save some money for future crossbow upgrades, but I won't be able to afford a third pike upgrade for a while so an additional spear build is pointless, and I want to be able to make those upgrades the instant it becomes appropriate. 

Kaiser's milpower is largely unchanged (+4 points, minor barb damage plus healing) and his stockpiles have not dropped since last turn, but he somehow picked up a huge chunk of cash (345g -> 579g, maybe pillaging?) and he just started accumulating Niter. That's bad. 

No changes on the Great Person screen. 

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

You're doing great, still. Bloodied Kaiser's nose a bit. Unfortunately, he can probably take the trades, given his superior production base, but we're dragging him down a bit.

If he has nitre, then he has musket tech unlocked, no? If that's the case, our horsemen and archers won't cut it at all. We need crossbows, stat, especially for the thick terrain north of Bruins. Won't be able to swarm muskets with lower quality units there, but the difficult terrain will give you lots of time to shoot.