[Spoilers] Chevalier Gives You Something to Cry Aboot

[williams482]

I agree, Kaiser is screwed unless he can either make some very fast gains against us, or start making much stronger economic progress. His best play may well be to just sit back defensively with his more and superior units, let us take our cracks at him, and counterattack when either he has built a truly decisive advantage, or Suboptimal has shaken up our defenses by taking Wild and striking towards Bruins and Kings from behind.

What's really weird about Kaiser's fall from grace here is that he really doesn't seem to have prioritized military builds to a degree that would have sacrificed infrastructure. His army hasn't grown much, and what growth we have seen has been mostly via upgrade.We've been behind but competitive in military strength for essentially the entire war. He's built a number of districts since the start of this war, he just hasn't expanded his borders much. Is this an example of poor midgame empire management with a largely irrelevant failed war slapped on top to cover for it? Or did the war effort stalling out actually cause these problems? It will be interesting to read Kaiser's thread.

Can we outlast him? I think so, at this point. By the time he has muskets we will have crossbows in the field, even if we have to hard build a lot more of them than I'd like. Castles will get us to cavalry parity, but also unlock medieval walls, which are twice as tough, immune to rams, and require the otherwise inferior siege towers to attack effectively. He'll probably need Bombards to knock those down, a further delay, and by that point his failure will be inescapable. We have nothing to play for except survival, even if we get peace, so it's not like a 15 turn break is going to soften our defenses.

So yeah. Bring it, Kaiser.

[TheArchduke]

Milpower is actually a very good measure of well milpower. I think Kaiser will stall out and lost the game in my eyes by not being militaristic or decisive enough.

Alas, I think with Canada and a bit of bad luck you never had a chance to win, but alas you are putting up a show!

[williams482]

Turn 99 World Congress:

Not much here, unfortunately:




I decide that since none of these are likely to either hurt Kaiser's war effort or help me in a meaningful way, I'll spend the minimum and try to pick things that won't help Kaiser's war effort any, and might be popular. Without putting in a lot of thought, I go with this: 



If the game lasts another 30 turns, I'll have some favor to spend on stuff I might actually care about. 

[williams482]

Turn 100:

So nothing good came out of the World Congress:



interestingly Woden put down two votes against suboptimal getting an extra trade route. That didn't matter, because Kaiser gave himself five votes and took the pot. The other one was an awkward scattershot of different opinions, with Kaiser bludgeoning his way to double prophet points (which likely favors Ichabod more than him, because that's an extra nine faith per turn against a slightly faster religion).

Ichabod wants a DoF, which I am happy to accept. Hopefully one of us gets Civil Service in the near future, for a military alliance and +5 strength against Kaiser's units. 

Kaiser has successfully destroyed the encampment walls, and made further progress against the encampment itself than I expected, apparently without needing any melee attacks. 



I would expect two cats (one injured) and two chariot archers to be able to deal roughly 21 + 18 + 11 + 11 = 61 damage, enough to destroy the encampment completely next turn. That definitely mandates withdrawing the horse, which will make the encampment fall even more easily. Unfortunately, Bruins being settled in a valley means that it will not be able to fire upon the unit which actually clears the encampment. If not for that inconvenience, two injured horses, an archer, and a city bombard would be plenty to extract vengeance against that spear. 

Kings takes a potshot at the only unit it can reach, dealing 72 damage to an archer. 

Kaiser has moved two chariot archers and one shrouded unit towards Blues:



I counterattack with some waiting horses, dealing 49 to take 16 with the first, then taking 17 points to deliver the kill with the second, revealing the unknown unit to be a spear:



That's a weak enough force that I decide to take some shots with my more injured horse, who strikes the Chariot Archers for 47, taking 18. My 62HP horse has a decision: he can hang around and heal, or take a low probability shot at the chariot. He'll deal an average of 47 damage, not enough for a kill, but a maximum of 58. Even a low end damage roll will force Kaiser to pick between saving the chariot and killing this horse, and I decide I'm in a gamblin' mood. We strike for 46, taking 22 and earning a promotion:



On the barb front, a sword has emerged. We strike the spear in the camp for 41, taking 19. That's a rough break, and we likely won't be able to kill it next turn, but even sacrificing this sword to kill that camp before it can disgorge all it's units would be worth the price if it came to that. Barbs suck!



Woden now has eight admiral points, plus a Merchant point. 

Scores:

[williams482]

Turn 101:

Kaiser knocked the encampment health down to nothing, but did not actually destroy the encampment by moving a unit into it:



Kaiser will likely rectify that error next turn. It's a pretty easy one to make, as the district can be bombarded down to zero hit points despite being "alive". I've been thrown by that quite a few times in single player. I want to make sure I can kill that ram before or just after it reaches Bruins, so I back up the injured horse in reach of that Chariot Archer. Next turn he should heal, but he can also attack the incense tile if needed. I consider moving the pike up from Kings, but he'll be plainly visible to kaiser and will likely be shot twice for ~40 damage, not worth it. 

The situation near Kings is interesting as well:



Kaiser opted to promote and withdraw the crippled chariot archer. It has no support bonuses except the +4 from those two visible spears, so this is a relatively safe situation to strike further if we think we can kill it. A healthy horse with one flanker will deal an average of 50, max of 63. it has 57 HP. Trading a friend for an enemy increases average damage to 59. Can we kill a spear with one healthy unit left over? Definitive no, the fresh horse out of Blues can't reach either unit because of the swamp. Still, I think the attacker will survive, and a (20%?) shot at killing a promoted Chariot Archer is worth some risk. I advance the promotion-eligible horse adjacent to both the hill spear and the chariot, revealing no new units. I advance to take my shot, revealing a Phoenician horseman?



Probably scouting, keeping an eye on the war. I attack, dealing 47 and taking 17, so no kill (as was likely). That chariot archer will be able to reach Bortus next turn, but should be out of action for a bit. I consider another aggressive, low-probability strike against the chariot archer, but decide that would leave my injured units too vulnerable and withdraw to a more defensive formation:



Blues starts on a fresh horse, due in 3. Kings also has a horse due in 3, Bruins in 4. I have 6 horses stockpiled now, making +6 per turn, so that's 24 in 3 turns and 30 in 4. Both Ichabod and Woden have been using theirs, with stockpiles in the 30s. I ask each of them for 16. If that doesn't go through, I'll swap policies and start hard-building crossbows in those cities. 

Barbarians are dumb:



The spear attacked out of the camp, suiciding against my sword (although I did not receive a notification of this, my sword is damaged and the spear is gone). The sword clears the camp, earning 50g and 3 era score. He should be able to tank a few hits from the barb sword and may get a promotion out of it. 

Suboptimal doesn't have any units near Avalanche right now, so I gamble and move the warrior a bit, revealing Howard:



I can tell from the trade screen that this city has a Theater Square under construction, dangerous if and when Suboptimal can get an amphitheater and some great works in there. This warrior will certainly return to his post next turn, if permitted to do so. 

Kaiser is up to three Engineer points from completing a workshop in Ed Mercer, and his second IZ in Kelly Grayson will bump him to four next turn. Woden adds his first this turn, and has two (doubled to four) Prophet points, which I may or may not have known already. He recruited a prophet last turn, but has yet to found his new religion. 

If I need Civil Service for alliances, that should work out fine. That was my next civic target anyway. 

Scores:

[TheArchduke]

Nice counteroffensive!

[williams482]

Turn 102:

Both Ichabod and Woden accepted my "give me horses for nothing" offer, very gracious of them. Kaiser scores another bountiful, harmless flood:



Kaiser clears out Bruins' encampment for real this time, and presses an advance on the city. To my pleasant surprise, both the city and the archer within can shoot over the adjacent hills:



I could shoot that Chariot archer on the wheat tile, but I opt to go after the injured spear instead. The city strike deals 44, and the archer finishes the job. Scratch one spear, the only unit I can currently see who benefits from that ram (although there's a sword sulking around here somewhere). I also have the option to immediately begin repairs on the encampment, which would take four turns. Given the pain in the rear it was for Kaiser to knock it down, getting it back up that fast (and likely unexpectedly) seems well worth it, even at the cost of a three turn horse. My injured horse 1SW of blues moves to the sheltered GFH 1NE, where I hope he'll be able to heal unmolested. The other horse fortifies, expecting an attack from one of the chariot archers. My archer near Kings could conceivably be fired upon, so I move the Pike out towards Bruins to a spot where only one Chariot archer can currently shoot it, and move the future crossbow into Kings for safety. That leaves the northeastern front looking like this:



The southwestern front isn't exactly quiet, but Kaiser has not dealt significant damage to my units, instead forming a nice little line of soldiers:



My units here are pretty dinged up, and there aren't any soft targets here that I can kill cheaply. I withdraw, setting a defensive line and healing my injured units within my territory. One item of note, the unit in Bortus is very likely a ~80HP Courser, which will be healthy and ready to fight next turn. It would be very nice to swarm and kill that unit if Kaiser gets frisky with it. 

Barbarians attacked my sword, which is now down to 41 HP. I fortify and advance the warrior to the silks tile, providing a support bonus and a second target. The warrior will take an average of 38 damage and deal 24 if attacked, after which he can retreat to safety and let the slightly recuperated sword handle the rest. 

The Avalanche warrior returns to his post without issue. 

Egypt adds a 4th Engineer point, as expected, and his first Merchant point from completing a Commercial Hub in Bortus. Woden has completed Phoenicia's first campus and is now earning a single Scientist point. 

I will complete Mercenaries next turn, and will without a doubt swap in Professional Army to upgrade a spear and two archers. My choices to swap out are Maneuver or Bastions, as Conscription is critical for having any gold income at all with an army this size. I will be stuck with the useless Professional Army card for eight turns while I research Civil Service unboosted. I had previously considered trying to boost Civil Service, but the only way I could save any time doing that is by immediately starting on a 5t builder in Blues, and using it to harvest the Rice and two marshes. I think my hammers are better spent on horses, with or without the card in place. Bastions has been remarkably helpful in defending Bruins, and I would strongly prefer to have it in as long as I have a city under attack, but is it more useful than ~2 horses over those eight turns? Not sure, further thought required. 

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Doing really well. You've bloodied his nose thoroughly. He's been at war for ages and still hasn't taken Bruins, our most indefensible city. He'll get nothing much from the empire, either, until he grinds all the way down to Penguins, while everyone else is growing.

[williams482]

Turn 103:

Mercenaries is in:



Kaiser withdraws from Bruins, likely to regroup and reposition his artillery. This means he can't see either of my archers, and will be in for a surprise when he advances again into crossbow fire if he's not tracking my milpower carefully. 



On the western front, things are interesting again:



My two healthy horses have a good shot at killing that chariot archer, which has no adjacent units in the fog. I expect to lose one of these units in return, as the Courser in Bortus and the two visible spears will definitely be able to tag team a lightly damaged horseman, but that's a trade I'm willing to make to keep a promoted crossbow off the field. Kaiser has a truckload of gold, and I can only assume he doesn't have the technology for crossbows yet or he would have upgraded these units instead of continuing to throw them at me. I advance, revealing another spear:



The western horse strikes for 48, taking 23. The eastern horse gets the kill and earns a promotion, taking 16. Unfortunately that is the unit most likely to die in retaliation, but oh well. Such is life. 



I decided that Bastions is simply too powerful in critical situations to swap out for so long, so Maneuver is out, Professional Army is in: 



A combined 370g earns us a pike and two crossbow upgrades, which does boost Metal Casting. I belatedly place the Aqueduct at Kings, which would take 10 turns to build if I were to do so. Both Blues and Kings will complete their horses next turn, so I'll have a decision to make: continue building horses without a production boost, or put that seven turns worth of hammers into Builder prebuilds, or Commercial Hubs? Kaiser has to realize that this war is not working out for him, and being able to steal a march on the peacetime buildup before he comes back with muskets does sound attractive. Someone may want to talk me out of that before next turn. 

We earn another envoy, our 4th. I'm tempted to put it into Yerevan for Era Score and map knowledge, but I hold off for the moment. This is enough to take Suzerity of Bolonia of Vilnius from Kaiser if we are so inclined. The barb sword attacked my sword, relining both units. With the fortify bonus, my sword should be able to kill the other next time it attacks. The Scout will likely suicide into my now fortified warrior. 

Brazil adds a 10th (doubled) Prophet point. 

Scores:

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Kaiser's milpower is scarcely higher than yours. Can you see his niter stocks? That would let us know how many muskets he can muster up at short notice - but as it is, a musket's only going to alter the overall military balance by about 20 points over swords. I really don't see any way this ends well for him.