[PB56] Amicalola and Tarkeel are Feeling Spicy

[Tarkeel]

With mining, it looks bad in a way, because there are almost no forests. However, there is also very little production here, so I think we want to be cracking the whip as early as possible. Perhaps even the first settler?

Japan is a neat idea, I shouldn't have forgotten them.

There seems to be ample forests, just not for the capital. BW is always a priority, just not enough to start with mining here (IMHO). I think Japan is subconciously undervalued because Tokugawa and their UB is very much meh in base BtS, and Fishing/Wheel is very rarely the tech combo you want to start with.

I like Mali and England both quite a bit. England is especially good considering we have the bank bonus, as you say, but I always feel that we want a forge in nearly every city anyway. To me, the difference is 10% extra gold after Metal Casting or 15% after Banking. Mali definitely has a more useful UU, but England has better techs. You're right about Hunting not being a priority, I think I overvalued it, and The Wheel and Fishing are both better (I don't love starting with Agriculture, as we can easily research it before a worker finishes; it is much cheaper in CtH). Man, it is honestly insane how much having a ded-lurker to challenge incorrect assumptions helps.

I definitely want to play the HRE at some point, but I think I want to wait until I'm organised.

I feel that my my main contribution will be to ask the stupid questions that forces you to stop and think. As I said in the main thread, micro is not my strength, but I'm pretty good at keeping the big picture in mind.

The problem with Mint is that you mainly want to build it where the 10% gold bonus doesn't do much. It's great when your UB matches up with a trait production bonus, and the Redcoat is a real nuisance if the game gets that far. Skirmishers can be good for securing land, but do we need them with Imperialistic? Maybe. Mali doesn't start with fishing though, so we can't work the crabs from the start.

I think I'd be happy with any of England, Mali or Japan, in roughly prioritized order. I don't think water will be important enough for Vikings or Dutch to be good picks.

My thinking is that we want Fishing/Agriculture very quickly, then Mining/Bronze Working, then Wheel/Pottery, in rough order. Obviously we can start with some of those. This looks to me like Fishing/Mining is the best tech start, with Wheel/Mining second, which supports the Mali or England picks.

Do we want to start with worker or work boat? If we go worker first, we probably want to start with fishing to work clam-lake while building. If we go workboat first, I think we still want to work clam-lake untill borders pop and we can work the hill, but probably with the second pop. This is micro-plan territory though. Also, there's not just that much for a worker to do in this start. We only have four (*) land tiles we want to work with early worker techs. I think the terrain dictates we should improve the corn first, then possibly ivory (need to check this) then go work the mines.

I think we need to start with fishing, and either start with or tech mining->BW (for whipping) and have agriculture (and possibly hunting) for the worker moves.

* Five if you count the river cottage, but that tile should be grown from another city.

How much experience do you have with Close to Home?

I've played a handful of SP games and read through some PBs, including 52 and 55.

And I think that naming scheme makes perfect sense! Will be easy to remember cities too, unlike some of the overly complicated schemes I see here sometimes.

Perhaps Cities after Spices, and Workers after Herbs?

Left to my own devices I'd probably name my cities after Star Wars planets or Miskatonic Valley/lost cities. I must admit that the line between herbs and spices isn't very clear to me, and I usually don't name my workers.

Also, which way should we scout first? Eastwards looks more lush, but the hill means the scout will have a shorter move. West also looks like it will be bordered my hills/forests that will stop movement, so maybe NW-NW? Another possibility is NW-NE to see if it's worth moving the capital one north, but unless that rivergrass has gems, I doubt it's worth moving off PH.

[Tarkeel]

We're up for Civ-pick, but I'll leave the final selection to you. India is still available if you want to go full Mjmd.

[Amicalola]

Hey, big picture and questions is exactly what I need!

The main thing I want to work out other than techs in my first sims is whether we want to go Work Boat or Worker first. I suspect Work Boat, but I'll report back in a bit. Either way, Fishing and working that clam seems really hard to pass up.

I think I'm going to choose England. Full Mjmd is tempting, but I think Mysticism is too crappy a starting tech. The fast worker also doesn't do very much at our capital early on, which is a mistake I made in 55 (imo). Our overwhelming goal is just to keep up with everyone until banks, and then pop off to rifles/cannon, I think. This will be a great game to focus on my early expansion and defense skills, since I suspect we will have a target on our backs early. We just need to survive!

Hah, yeah my next game is probably going to be hip hop albums. I suspect that's an under-represented genre at RB.   For this one though, we'll go with herbs and spices. If you are curious about the difference, it's not a hard and fast rule, but the vast majority of the time you'll find that if it is a leaf (fresh or dried), it is a herb, whereas seeds and crushed up powders are almost always spices. So for example, Basil (leaves) is a herb, but Cumin (powder) is a spice. Generally spices are much stronger and overwhelming, whereas herbs are more subtle.

[Tarkeel]

This is the obligatory joke reminder that we are playing unrestricted leaders.

Some random thoughts on other picks:

• Spiritual is (as usual) not picked.
  
• So far, nobody has picked aggressive and the only charismatic player has a musketman-UU.
  
• There are however a few classical/medieval UUs picked that are yet to take a leader. Rome with Boudica would be... Not someone I would like to border.
  
• Four civs start with fishing and are potentially coastal, although Rome is a good pick regardless. Carthage is most likely coastal.
  
• Spain might very well dominate the early religion play here, depending on leader traits.
  
• Protective and Financial is only picked once each, while Philisophical is picked twice.
  

[Amicalola]

I'm really surprised about the lack of Financial and Protective here. I think they're pretty clearly the two best traits when separated (i.e. you want one, but not both) and combined with an expansion trait like IMP, EXP or CRE. There's a few leaders to go though, so perhaps that will change.

I felt so silly making the sim, picking Victoria, and THEN picking England.

Edit: I don't have time for an extreme sim tonight, but my preliminary tests just then made an Agri -> Hunting -> BW -> Wheel/Pottery opening look quite strong, with a work boat then a worker. I'll give it a proper couple of hours tomorrow.

[Amicalola]

I've been simming for quite a while, and I think I'm happy with the early moves. Micro Plan for the first 30 turns looks like this:

0: Found. Work crabs. Build Work Boat. Start Agriculture.
1:
2:
3:
4:
5: Agri finish. Start Hunting.
6:
7:
8: Size 2. Work Grass forest hill and forest wine.
9:
10: Finish Hunting. Start BW. Switch from forest wine to crabs.
11: Work boat fnish. Net fish. Start worker, work fish and crabs.
12:
13:
14:
15:
16:
17:
18;
19: Finish worker. Start warrior. Worker farm corn.
20: Finish BW. Start Wheel. Immediately convert to slavery.
21:
22:
23: Corn farm finishes. Size 3, work corn farm.
24: Start camping ivory.
25: Finish Wheel. Start Pottery.
26: Size four, work forest hill. Warrior finishes, start settler.
27: 2-whip settler. Camp finishes.
28: Overflow into work boat. Move settler to settler ~T30.

[Tarkeel]

I don't see any obvious flaws in that plan, but any thoughts on this?

Also, which way should we scout first? Eastwards looks more lush, but the hill means the scout will have a shorter move. West also looks like it will be bordered my hills/forests that will stop movement, so maybe NW-NW? Another possibility is NW-NE to see if it's worth moving the capital one north, but unless that rivergrass has gems, I doubt it's worth moving off PH.

Might be worth moving the scout before settling just to make sure.

Also, working on some thoughts about the other picks, but won't be ready untill tomorrow (for me, which should be evening for you).

[Amicalola]

Hmm, East could be a good direction; as you say, the land is best there.
The other possibility is to head west because I think it is likely our second city wants to share the corn with the capital, so it will almost certainly go west or northwest. In fact, that's probably the best direction to start in. We will also have copper revealed long before the settler is out, which is nice.

I'm about to start writing my own thoughts but don't know how long it'll take. I look forward to seeing if we've thought differently!

[Amicalola]

Opponent Analysis: Grouping people into rough tiers based on a combination of player skill and picks. Within tiers there is no particular order. This should help if you are curious about what I think, but don't want to read all my waffling. 


Overall this is a really weird game, with lots of people who rely on being left alone early on (us, Jowy, Noble, Ruff, El Grillo, Lazteuq), and then a few people (Mjmd/Miguelito, Giraflorens) who have 0% of leaving somebody alone. At least 2 people will have their game wrecked by T100. It should be a fun watch for lurkers, I hope.





Learning Game/Very Unlikely to Win
Giraflorens + Mackoti - Catherine (CRE/IMP) of Mongolia (Keshik/Ger)
I don't think this team is going to win the game. I really like Gira and Vanrober, and they are learning enthusiastically and well, but they were perhaps even greener than I when they arrived in PB51. Language barrier also makes it harder, which is a shame. Adding to that, I don't think this is a pick designed to win; instead, Gira and Mackoti can (and will!) completely ruin 1-2 other people's game, before stalling out and getting rolled up. That's my prediction, at least. I will note that I actually want to start next to Gira less than almost anyone else, because when he whips and chops out his army, it WILL kill someone.

Vanrober + Chumchu - Charlemagne (IMP/PRO) of the Celts (Gallic Warrior/Dun)
I have to wonder if I'm underestimating the Celts, since they've now been picked in 3 of the last 5 games. They certainly make you hard to attack, but I don't think that's enough by itself. Everything that applied to Gira also applies to Vanrober, although I think I would give Vanrober the edge in skill. I like this pick for actually winning the game a lot better than Gira's; Vanrober is going to claim a lot of land, fund it with PRO trade routes, and defend it with uber-hill-fighters. Simple, but I think it's effective. This could be Vanrober's breakout game.

Amicalola + Tarkeel - Victoria (FIN/IMP) of England (Redcoat/Stock Exchange)
I like our pick a lot better than the others in this tier. England is a little forgettable, but has fantastic techs, and Victoria (in my opinion) is just objectively the best leader in CtH. It's close, and there's a lot of leaders competing for second place, but she's first. Where we will have trouble is twofold; one, our pick is very clearly an 'attack before they tech and beat us,' like Ruff's, which people are going to realise. Secondly, I think it is likely that we will be seen as an easy target, thanks to my inexperience and particularly my collapse in 51. Thus, I think we are very unlikely to be allowed to tech in peace, as we will look a very juicy target to others. If we are allowed to though, we will perhaps have a shot! 


A Win is Not Just Possible, But Plausible
Mr Cairo - Washington (CHA/EXP) of the Ottomans (Janissary/Hammam)
Huge props for replacing GKC on such short notice. Mr Cairo seems like a good player, although it's hard to tell because he doesn't report frequently. In his last two games, he maintained relevance while not actually coming close to winning. Where this really confuses me though is the pick; CHA and EXP are both strong when paired with one of the uber-traits, but the two combined seem really lackluster. The Ottomans are ok, I guess? Maybe he picked them for the starting techs. I expect Cairo to survive, but not come close to winning.

Ruff_HI - Wang Kon (FIN/PRO) of Spain (Conquistador/Citadel)
Ruff seems to be splitting himself between a lot of games right now. He has a strange reporting style that makes it hard to tell how well he's doing in 54, and in 55 it's too early to tell. I'm not in love with this pick though, and I think Ruff has a pretty clear gameplan to tech to cuirs without fighting much until then, and then use his tech advantage to attack someone. Also like us, I'm a little skeptical he's going to make it there. 

Mjmd + Miguelito - Genghis Khan (AGG/IMP) of Rome (Praetorian/Forum)
Ah, my mentors.  I think Mjmd and Miguelito are both good players, but if I had to bet on what's happening in their thread right now, Mjmd is upset about Noble playing, and they've decided to go for a fun game instead of a serious, playing-to-win one. Mjmd is a builder though, so he'll be out of his comfort zone. This pick is basically Gira's, in that 1 or 2 people will have their game absolutely WRECKED by these two, before they stall out. With that said, I think Mjmd has the micro skills to potentially keep their economy going, and Miguelito has a knack for asking important big-picture questions, so these two do have a real shot. Along with Gira, this is the team I'd want to start near the least. 


The Great Unknown
Civac2 - Suleiman (IMP/PHI) of Khmer (Ballista Elephant/Baray)
Everyone knows Khmer is good. Everyone knows IMP is great. PHI is a bit unknown, but got a significant buff in CtH, so might be great. What I don't know is anything about Civac2 himself. He and Ruff seem to be playing well in 55, but that's it. I don't particularly have the energy or time to translate his German threads, so I'll leave this as the great unknown, with the caveat that I like the pick, so if Civac2 is good then this belongs in the Strong Candidates section. 


Strong Candidates if Noble Falls Flat
Jowy - Gilgamesh (CRE/PRO) of Carthage (Numidian Cavalry/Cothon)
I really like this pick. CRE is still strong (it's been picked a lot this game, too!), and PRO obviously synergises well with Cothons. Adding to that, Jowy has played a strong game in PB52, and seems to be doing just fine so far in 55. I think this is easily one of the strongest packages in this game. The only surprise is that Jowy took Gilgamesh and not Mao. 

El Grillo - Nebachudnezzar (IND/PHI) of Inca (Quechua/Terrace)
If I had to put money on a not-Noble player, it would be El Grillo. I think he is probably the second strongest player here. He did great in PB51 (Plemo was fairly unstoppable), and while I can't go into PB54 spoilers, El Grillo is playing a great, well-reported game there too. The pick is the first time we've seen IND/PHI in a non-advanced start game, which is exciting. The same applies to Inca, and I'm really curious to see how they perform here. El Grillo is another player that needs to be left alone early. If he gets time to crank out the wonders like Cornflakes did in 53, El Grillo could absolutely become the unstoppable runaway a-la Plemo.

Lazteuq - Sitting Bull (PHI/PRO) of Byzantium (Cataphract/Hippodrome)
Lazteuq did quite well with a slightly botched pick in 51; I think he's a good player. Byzantium is great for all the reasons that everyone already knows, but I find Sitting Bull a lot more questionable. Perhaps he will try to do bulb-shenanigans to guilds? It could definitely work, and Byzantium is strong enough that if Lazteuq can make it through the early game unscathed, he could definitely wipe out a player or two and snowball to victory. I expect him to play a typical Byzantium game, and be a sort-of hybrid between a gira-style kill everyone and an us-style of please leave us alone. 


Noble; He Who Has Very Sharp Teeth
NobleHelium + Friends - Willem (CRE/FIN) of China (Cho-Ku-Nu/Pavilion)
I wasn't quite as worried about Noble as I think some people were. Then he picked his leader/civ combo. This is, along with probably our own, the strongest leader/civ combo here. Noble, from what I gather, has a strong civ reputation here; he said as much in the intro thread. Willem is probably one of the strongest leaders, with CRE providing just enough oomph to keep up early game, and FIN carrying the game from there. China is near unassailable in the midgame thanks to Cho-Ku-Nus, so Noble will be hard to dogpile if he gets out in front. Make no mistake; with his pick, skill, and the veritable army of people already posting in his thread, Noble will likely get out in front. The question is whether other things happen on the map to destabilise that lead or not; the most likely scenario I see right now is an unavoidable Mjmd or Giraflorens attack. With picks finalised, I don't think Noble is a complete lock to win this, but he is the obvious favourite, and it's not very close.

[Amicalola]

I would say there is something between a 75-90% chance that someone from the top 4 wins.