Gaspar and Lewwyn listen to backseat drivers Brick and Noble

[Lewwyn]

I think we have to go through AT's land to get circumnav, but as soon as we get it I'd like to declare war and just keep him at war. Force him to only play in a certain timeframe of the turnsplit and not allow him to log in to the game all the time as he seems fond of doing that.

[Lewwyn]

Okay so the last 2 turns have been a bit of a whirlwind. I'll try to update it well enough but I don't have all the pictures.



Here's our units outside Hadrum on t96. He got a numid in the city due to the AT horse gift. We decided to see where our luck would take us and we got some favorable results. and took the city.



Capture gold will fuel our currency. We decided that we'd keep it. We knew a chariot was in range:



And that the south chariot was dead due to a trap here.

We also saw a trap to the East:



In the end we deleted the worker. We left the chariot to be killed to draw a unit away from hadrum.

Also this turn we saw Gav's massive War chariot stack:



And there are barb archers in the NE for our hero axe to reach 10xp with:



Then Demos for the turn:




T97:

Corn had 2 numids in the fog to go along with the chariot. our archer killed one at 50% then he took the city back and offered peace.

I declined:



Fairly good odds to kill a numid and raze the city.

We did that.



We offered peace. Let's see if he takes it. We have 5 units completing next turn.

Demos:



We are discussing whether we have a path to victory? well someone has to face up civac. Everyone's just rolling over for him and he's got a huge Pangea to expand into and anica is more focused on settling into us than countering the runaway.

[Charriu]

Where in the world did you spot Gavagai's stack?

[Lewwyn]

Where in the world did you spot Gavagai's stack?

In the middle of his territory. I don't think its a commodore attack force but maybe Gav has a neighbor north or West? I assume AT is in this direction given we know where all the other civs are generally. The stack didn't move between turns so I assume its an area defense stack right now until Gav gets mad.

The warrior is moving through it trying to get to the coast so we can get circumnav. We're so late on that. At SD Jowy Civac commodore all have circumnav

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Thanks for updating us more on Gavagai's plans than gavagai himself

[NobleHelium]

Okay, I was going to post the chat but the chat is too long and Gmail will not let me go to the print page which is the only page I can use to format it correctly. Otherwise it becomes a living hell and I'd have to write a program to clean it up and I'm not doing that.

Anyway, Cornflakes had 2 archers and a numid in the city. The numid had attacked our spear and healed with two promotions, so it was partially damaged with C1/Shock. One archer was fortified, the other was new. We had 4 axes, one of which had a promotion available, two healthy chariots, a damaged chariot, and an archer. I ran the Zulan simulator and about 1/3 of the simulations resulted in victory. However the simulator is dumb and it just assumes you are attacking all the units in order, and in the real game you can change your attack order based upon what happens in previous combats. Most crucially we could attack with a green axe to start and see the result we get and pull the plug on the attack if the odds weren't good enough for us to continue. We attacked the fortified archer and got 3 hits which improved our chances to about even money. A subsequent attack with the C1 axe on the second archer brought us up to about 62% to win. Then we got truly lucky and killed the numid with an axe which brought us up to a resounding 95% chance to win.

This is how you tilt probability in your favor. Or you can just complain about how you supposedly always get bad luck whenever you see an individual combat give a below average result, especially even when the cumulative result was above average for you.

[NobleHelium]

By the way lurkers, Lewwyn will be going to China in maybe two weeks and I will likely be playing some turns then. I will try to find time for a giant map stitch which is one of the things I like to do for big Pitbosses. So you can see Gavagai's territory then, or what we will know of it. Here is one I did for PB12.

[NobleHelium]

OK, Gaspar was lamenting the loss of the chat log so here is a snippet.

NobleHelium
can we get a pic
Lewwyn
one sec
sry was on the phone the last 20 minutes
NobleHelium
i thought you were uploading the pic for 20 minutes
Lewwyn
that too
so slow
NobleHelium
i see a barracks
in the city
which means he was gearing up for war anyway
Gaspar
this is like Lewwyn is painting the gettysburg address
NobleHelium
otherwise he wouldn't have a barracks
Lewwyn
yeah I think we caught him just before he blitzed us
Gaspar
maybe he built a barracks because he thought they gave culture
Lewwyn
nah he got HBR before everyone
Gaspar
yeah im just memeing
you dont build barracks and tech hbr unless you're planning on using that shit
Lewwyn
ugh
upload failed
getting email
sending it in an email shouldn't fail that way
so like we can get 2 injured chariots and an archer in the city basically
Gaspar
im looking forward to the carrier pigeons telling us how things look
Lewwyn
we have no units in gnash, an archer in poltroon and an archer in fop
NobleHelium
they say that things look squawky
Lewwyn
ok look
Gaspar
HEDWIG, BRING ME MY SCREENSHOT BOY
GOOD OWL
NobleHelium
hey i don't want to make fun of your shitty internet
i know it's worse for you than it is for us
Gaspar
i do?
Lewwyn
We also have a chariot south coming up
NobleHelium
yeah well you're an asshole gaspar
Gaspar
its not like im talking about his mom
yes
NobleHelium
i'm an asshole only to the people i hate
Lewwyn
ok look as in look at your email
lol

[novice]

So SD wanted to chop the first few rush numids using naked workers on the forests on your borders.

[Lewwyn]

So SD wanted to chop the first few rush numids using naked workers on the forests on your borders.

Yes it appears that he wanted to chop forests on our border that we would have taken cultural control of with HG, and use them to Numid us. Yes that appears to be the case.