[PB56] NobleHelium Tells It Like It Is

[novice]

Break a leg!

[NobleHelium]

Mjmd declared war on us, the dogpile has already begun!!!!11

Just kidding. Mjmd killed our scout on the other side of the map.

[Serdoa]

I will never understand why people do that. I mean I do, but it still makes no sense for me.

[Serdoa]

Ok, I should really finish my presentation for Monday, so obviously lets check what Amica and Tarkeel are doing. We have a border already so they are naturally a threat and they also must have felt the same way towards the Stonehenge-city as we did. After we have taken it, it is no more a cultural threat, but

a) I don't know if they know that (I at least had forgotten) and
b) if there was a unit-buildup they will most likely want to use these anyway

I've asked Noble yesterday to take some screenshots of graphs for me in order to analyze whats going on with them. He did, but I needed more (and better cropped) so I logged in today to take some myself. So lets see:



They play England, so started with Fishing / Mining, so those obviously are the first 2000 points. They also started with a GNP of 19. 4 espionage, 2 culture from palace leaves 13 unaccounted GNP. 9 is palace + city center. They most likely had seafood with 3 commerce through FIN-bonus. But that is 12... I'm actually at a loss tbh were the 13th beaker comes from. edit: "Research" (google...) showed that I forgot that you get a free beaker all the time... all my spreadsheets contain it, but I didn't even remember. At some point I apparently was good at this game.

(05 Turns) 3800 BC - score increase by 6 (tech) -> Agriculture (the only other possibility was Myst and that is too expensive). 13 beakers x 5 turns = 65 beakers, Agri cost 59 so that is 6 overflow.
(08 Turns) 3680 BC - growth to 2, 1000 soldier points (3000 total)
(10 Turns) 3600 BC - score increase by 6 (tech) and 2000 soldier points -> Hunting (Sailing and AH would be possible, but both are too expensive). There graph shows 11 beakers on T8 when they grew to 2 and back up to 13 T9 and T10. I guess they adjusted their tile for one turn as they knew they would grow regardless but could get a few more hammers into their build? Anyhow, that gives a total of 13, 13, 11, 13, 13 + 6 = 69 beaker. Hunting again costs 59, so 10 overflow. 

(20 Turns) 3200 BC - score increase by 12 (tech and land points, ~4 land tiles?) and 8000 soldier points -> Bronze Working. GNP was 15 on T11, 19 on T12 - T19 and 16 on T20. 194 in total, 15 overflow (that might be wrong tbh, I guess the last turn is actually already the next research, but I'm not in the mood to think about it though, it is close enough).

(23 Turns) 3080 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) -> 3rd citizen
(25 Turns) 3000 BC - score increase by 12 (land points, 7 more land tiles)
(26 Turns) 2960 BC - score increase by 10 (tech, pop), 7000 soldier points -> 1000 of these is for the 4th citizen. Leaves 6000 points. The Wheel and Archery are 89 beakers, but Archery would get a bonus. They produced 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 17. That should be The Wheel therefore and a Warrior, else there would be bonus research similar to BW. 
(28/29 Turns) 2880/2840 BC - score decrease by 8 (2 pop whip) and -1000 soldier points --> 2 citizens whipped obviously
(32/33 Turns) 2720/2680 BC - score increase by 10 (tech, pop), followed by 4 (city 2 settled), 1000 soldier points -> back to 4 pop. Tech is not military so not AH, not Sailing, not Archery. Myst, Pottery, Masonry. GNP seems to indicate 127 + overflow beaker. Myst would be too cheap (and the spike in GNP looks like bonus), Masonry only gets one bonus and still makes not much sense, so I go with Pottery.
(34 Turns) 2640 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) -> citizen no. 5
(38 Turns) 2480 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) followed by -8 (2 pop whip), 1000 soldier points -> citizen no. 6; he should have lost 1000 points here again but PB and when what updates and ugh... 
(39 Turns) 2440 BC - score increase by 6 (tech), 1000 soldier points -> that are really 2000 soldier points so a military tech. Sailing or AH. Equally expensive but AG should get 1.4 multiplier as they have both possible requisites. GNP graph spiked at that point also, so lets go with AH. 
(41 Turns) 2360 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) -> citizen no. 5
(42 Turns) 2320 BC - score increase by 8 (pop x2), 3000 soldier points -> citizens up to 7 and another warrior (no. 2) .... you guys are all playing farmers gambits much worse than I ever did, no wonder your cities get razed...
(44/45 Turns) 2240/2200 BC - score decrease by 8 (2-pop whip), -1000 soldier points -> citizens down to 5 again.
(45 Turns) 2200 BC - score increase by 6 (tech) -> no soldier points, so not Sailing, AH. Mysticism or Masonry. The research took 6 turns, but I think they saved gold a turn. And also Myst for Masonry makes sense to get the bonus. Therefore lets assume Myst.
(46 Turns) 2160 BC - score increase by 4 (pop), 1000 soldier points (counted on 47!) -> was in the middle of the turn, so city no. 3 settled, back to 6 pop total
(47 Turns) 2120 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) -> citizen 7
(48 Turns) 2080 BC - score increase by 4 (pop), 1000 soldier points -> citizen 8 ... he also whips here two pop, so -1000 soldier points, only shown on T49 though on the graph
(49 Turns) 2040 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) -> citizen 7 ... followed by another 2 pop whip, so back down to 5 citizens
(50 Turns) 2000 BC - score increase by 4 (pop) , 6000 soldier points -> citizen 6 and the first Axeman I assume
(51 Turns) 1960 BC - score increase by 10 (pop, tech) and afterwards another 2 pop whip. Our graphs are not showing this yet. 

Tech research: Fishing / Mining -> Agri -> Hunting -> Bronze Working -> The Wheel -> Pottery -> AH -> Myst -> ??? (T51)

I'm wary of the last turns seeing this. He whipped on T48, T49 and T51. All 2 pop whips. He settled city 3 on T46, so that can not have been involved in those. He had 3 and 2 citizens in the other two cities at that point. He then grew one to 4 and one to 3 on T47 and T48 respectively. He whipped the 4-pop one on T48... in short:

T46: 3, 2, 1
T47: 4, 2, 1
T48: 4, 3, 1 -> -2 -> 2, 3, 1
T49: 2, 4, 1 -> -2 -> 2, 2, 1
T50: 3, 2, 1
T51: 4, 2, 1 -> -2 -> 2, 2, 1

I assume he has a Granary in his capital, else I don't see how to whip in that order. We know that 48 have not been units, we should have seen those on T49 on the graph. So probably a Granary whipped overflown into an Axe. But T49 must be the second city being whipped and T51 the capital again. If all of that are units overflown into units, that should be 4 more metal units. 2 Axes, 2 Spears is my guess, but it could be 4 Axes instead - graphs will tell.

[Serdoa]

20 points increase on T52 for Amica, we need to check how many points we get per land tile as there should be some land points involved.

[NobleHelium]

They have a granary in their second city (Anise) next to the Henge city. I was surprised to see it, I don't think I've ever built a granary this early while not being EXP.

Also the fact that they have one in their second city may also mean that they built one in the capital as well, if there was a 2-whip there.

[novice]

So you've captured the stonehenge city but you're not sure yet if you'll be able to keep it? Congrats!

Are you aiming to eliminate Inca or will you go back to the more profitable, peaceful expansion?

I suppose a capital city will be quite good, but if he stuffs it full of archers you'll want cats...

[Charriu]

They have a granary in their second city (Anise) next to the Henge city.  I was surprised to see it, I don't think I've ever built a granary this early while not being EXP.

Also the fact that they have one in their second city may also mean that they built one in the capital as well, if there was a 2-whip there.

As someone who also tends to build granaries very early, I'm curious why you do not build them early

[Serdoa]

So you've captured the stonehenge city but you're not sure yet if you'll be able to keep it? Congrats!

Are you aiming to eliminate Inca or will you go back to the more profitable, peaceful expansion?

I suppose a capital city will be quite good, but if he stuffs it full of archers you'll want cats...

I'm quite confident that we can hold the SH-city tbh IF we are even attacked, which seems foolish to do. It is not like we have no units or warrior-rushed AT, we do have several Axes, Spears and Chariots. If my calculations are correct we are facing maybe 4 Axes, 2 Spears. Lets see, what do we know? 

1) The graph shows a unit for T50. That means in reality it was produced EOT49.
2) Therefore his whip T48 has not produced a unit EOT48, else it would show T49 on the graph.
3) We could see on the graph of T51 two more units (unfortunately I have no screen of that right now, but trust me). 
4) These units have been produced EOT50 therefore.
5) Given his whips that would indicate/let us reliably assume that

Turn	Action	EOT Anise	EOT capital
48	whip Anise	Granary built, xx overflow	N/A
49	whip Capital	Spear started	Axeman built
50	none	Spear built	Axeman built
51	whip Capital	Spear started	Axeman built
52	none	Spear built	Axeman built

The last two turns are extrapolated from what we know (no whip on 52 for example) and could very well be wrong. But that's the conservative approach. His 3rd city is not yet contributing as far as we know. I therefore expect right now a force of 4 Axes, 2 Spears. That could grow the coming turns - and seeing the graphs will help, as we know for certain of 3 units but when we log in this turn (T53) we should see if my prediction of EOT51 was right or if he got again 2 units. 

Now Anise is 3 tiles west of the SH-city IIRC. His capital has to be at least another 3 west. That are 6 tiles to travel at least, so even with roads 3 turns. If he wants to attack with more than 2 axes and 1 spear he can do so the earliest T55 and if my expectations are correct T56 even. Which would become more likely T57 due to culture making his travel slower. 

Realistically by T57 the units above are not enough to take any of our cities. And his double double-whip in the capital should already have set him back in terms of actually producing anything. He can get 2 more units there if he whips again - but I don't think we see a happy-resource he got with his cities, so doing that would make his capital useless for like 20+ turns. I don't think doing so makes sense. 

I actually still hope that they got spooked from our build-up and taking of the SH-city and they just tried to be safe if we looked towards them. If they really attack, it will just set us both back. And we will be set back by having to keep Inca in check while we wait for Catapults.

[NobleHelium]

Going to need ALL your luck tomorrow, novice. And probably your brother's luck too.