OK so we bombarded and knocked defenses down to 56%. Maybe or may not bombard again next turn depending on Commodore/Jowy's actions. In diplomatic news, we signed OB with Lewwyn!!
After this war with Jowy, Civac is either going to win the game within the next 5 turns, or get dogpiled. Lewwyn will be needed if that happens, and having a safe border with him doesn't hurt either.
Edit: Note, Lewwyn also gets Guilds at the end of turn, with us. I am not sure how much to trust him. He was in game with me today; I enjoy chatting with him, maybe that's skewed my view. But I think he doesn't want Civac to win any more than I do, which makes me trend towards trusting him somewhat.
Other note: Jowy built the Statue of Zeus, so hopefully he signs peace after the mainland is taken.
Here is the situation for Commodore, who is going to take Shimatsuken next turn, presumably. Jowy's stack is very imobile, and has no collateral, both of which are causing him problems.
(January 7th, 2021, 01:12)Amicalola Wrote: Other note: Jowy built the Statue of Zeus
obnoxiousness on another level.
Maybe try to peace out with some gains, but while he still has some hope and it benefits him as well
He's certainly going to annoy us to death. :P
But overall I kind of agree. My current thinking is to try and take the various front cities (so the 3 in those pictures, plus maybe Enuma Elish (though leaving that to Commodore and giving him a bigger front with Civac may be wise) and/or Heaven's Hole. Here is the total 5 cities I think we are plausibly looking at taking, plus the capital if we get very lucky.
Here is the situation at Elementary.
Jowy reinforced more than I thought. I had to think about where they came from, and then it seemed obvious and I felt like a fool. These are the units missing from Cursed Crater last turn, of course! Anyway, like last turn I would like your input because I do not feel good enough to trust my instinct. I would like to bombard for 1 more turn (reduce defenses to 2%) and then attack properly next turn. This will save a lot of units. The main cons I could think of to this are:
- Commodore and us are in a bit of a prisoner's dilemma. I don't want him to think we are doing nothing and peace out. For me this is actually the bigger worry, since from his end, it probably looks like we haven't done anything yet.
- It allows time for any more reinforcements to join.
Once Elementary falls, we should be able to take Cursed Crater and Fire Spear with knights soon afterwards. Something like 5 turns.
Let me know your thoughts! I am going to do the same as yesterday and get exercise/chores done before I play; hopefully you guys will see this before then. If not, I think I will bombard again, since this is going to be one hell of a meat grinder. Jowy's other stack is still 2 turns away.
I would also like to extend a massive thanks to both of you for helping me with this game, just in general. I'm sorry I am so new to so many concepts; it must be frustrating sometimes! But it has really helped having two great teammates both mentally (stress-wise) and in the game.
If he is just going to turtle in his cities like an AI, I guess bombarding like you would against AI makes sense. Also, protective longbows are just kind of stupid on hills especially if you don't have good punching units, so probably the thing to do.
Are more units from the capital missing?
If not that many, then yes to bombarding.
Did you return Commodore's horse/iron trade message? Might help to keep them on board.
I did some preliminary sims just then, assuming that Jowy would move another 4 units into the city. We should have pretty good odds to take the city, something like a 70-80% chance (subject to reinforcements) but it will be very bloody.
I also accidentally promoted 2 of our catapults to CR1. Oops.
Ok, attack happening this turn. I've simmed a bunch and it looks like we are sending in about 15 catapults to their deaths (out of 22; ouch), before slamming the city and it's 20 defenders. I'll report when it's done!
We finally took a city! It came with a granary and nothing else, but the tactical value and land value are both huge.
(my cooler pic of the actual capture failed to upload )
Combat results were just above average, and it was still a meat grinder.
RESULTS
Cat vs LB (0.1%) = LOSS * 10
Cat vs LB (1.3%) = LOSS
Cat vs LB (2.3%) = LOSS
Cat vs LB (7.9%) = LOSS
Cat vs LB (8.6%) = LOSS
Treb vs LB (60%) = WITHDRAW * 2
Treb vs LB (80%) = WITHDRAW
Treb vs LB (55%) = LOSS (I shouldn't have used this one; stupid)
So there's the artillery strike. Now we send our actual troops into the grinder...
Sword vs LB (49%) = LOSS
Sword vs LB (55%) = WIN
WE vs LB (55%) = WIN * 3 Lucky here
WE vs LB (56%) = LOSS
Sword vs LB (52%) = LOSS
WE vs LB (55%) = WIN
WE vs LB (56%) = LOSS * 2
WE vs LB (59%) = WIN * 2
WE vs LB (62%) = LOSS
HA vs Pike (62%) = LOSS
HA vs Mace (65%) = WIN
Sword vs LB (68%) = WIN
WE vs LB (90%) = WIN
Axe vs LB (80%) = WIN * 2
Sword vs LB (95%) = WIN
X-Bow vs LB (95) - WIN * 2
Pike vs LB (95%) = WIN
HA vs LB (95%) = WIN
Axe vs LB (99%) = WIN
So we lost more than him, but a) we captured a city, and b) I don't know if avoiding that was even possible with his composition.
My biggest regret is not using the axes as suicide fodder, since they aren't exactly useful. But oh well.
Commodore looks to be losing the fight over at Shimatsuken, so he may peace out soon. But if we can nab 5 of Jowy's cities, and align ourselves in a grand alliance of Lewwyn, Us, Commodore, and Gavagai after this war ends, the four of us might just be able to stop Civac!!! That's something I didn't imagine thinking for the last 30 turns...
In other world news, Civac looks to be going for round 2 with Gavagai. I also expect Lewwyn to fully Eat SD's final cities while we fight over here. Sorry Superdeath, I tried my best to help you out for like 60 turns. In the end, the choke-point + BE's + central position just meant I couldn't do much. I guess that's the power of BE's?
obnoxiousness on another level. 
)
That's something I didn't imagine thinking for the last 30 turns...