The real power of CKN IMO is the additional tactical options that they provide due to their ability to attack off ships. China is the only civ with access to a unit that can do collateral damage amphibiously. They can also damage Machine Guns which are immune to collateral from siege.
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[PB56] Amicalola and Tarkeel are Feeling Spicy
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This isn't my area of expertise, but I don't really see much room for maneuvering here, especially as Noble has the naval advantage.
The one thing in our favor though, is the third border city which you didn't show: Noble's capital, located in the fog just south-eastish of Basil. With a combat worker we can unload knights on it's doorsteps, but I doubt it's possible to two-turn it. At the very least we should use a sentry chariot down there to get vision on his capital at long last? 
@Cornflakes - Those are both really good points! I hadn't considered the former especially, but you're right, that's insane. So they're basically extremely relevant forever?
@Tarkeel - that's a good point, might be worth doing that just for the visibility, though we'd need to sacrifice a chariot. But we have plenty of scouting chariots, so next turn one shall be sent into the fire. I agree on maneuvering, and while we are tying down the units Noble has for defense, I don't think they would make enough difference in the south for Noble to go on the offensive, so I think I'll offer peace next turn. Of course, Noble probably realises this too, so he probably won't accept anyway. 
T154
Noble is researching Paper, which can really only mean one thing - Galleons are 3-ish turns away. So here's the question: what's the optimal time to offer peace? I want as much time as possible after Galleons are a threat, but if Noble has galleons, he has no real reason to accept that peace. So I need to strike a fine balance. I think that's probably this turn (we also got stock exchanges now), but I need to think about it while I play. Not going to hold up the game to think further though, obviously. How's "Optimal Peace Offer Timing" as a complex puzzle during war turns?  Edit: to be fair, I think the odds of peace on any turn are pretty low. I'm just trying to maximise them as best I can. Edit2: It probably looks like I'm throwing Gira to the wolves here. Maybe I am. I'm really not sure if this peace is a good idea, like I've been saying. I THINK he can hold Noble off, but if he doesn't we just automatically lose. But here's how I see it - I am BY FAR the best competitor to Noble long-term, as I have the best production and the best GNP of the 2nd-placers, and it's not very close. Especially production, which is even higher than GA-Noble's. So as long as Noble and Gira stalemate, it is in my interests to drag this out as much as I can. The problem is, if the peace runs out before I get caravels of my own (which lose but not as horrifically as galleys), Noble can pretty well stomp me, and that's the biggest reason not to sign peace quickly. In other words, if Noble and I sign peace, our chance to win is maybe 5%. But if we stay at war, Noble definitely kills us before we can develop that potential, and our chance is 0%. Basically it's just a gamble, but one I think we need to take. Edit3: I'm going to wait 1 more turn before offer. Push the greed to the limit. The goal at this point can't be slow Noble down, it has to be 'speed us up and have Gira/Laz slow Noble down.' At least for the immediate future. Also, STILL no one has built Taj, and the tension is killing me!!!! If Civac indeed wants to steal it with our marble, he has to do it probably this turn. If Noble gets it, I think we can call the game, because our ~5% chance drops to zero, and no one else is above 0% already in my opinion. Edit4: CIVAC GOT TAJ! Maybe Noble is tilted enough to take a peace offer next turn. Dammit, I should have offered this turn, when he'd be max tilted.......... I guess there was no way to really know though. Hopefully it lasts until next turn. Or maybe he's really angry and takes it out on us. But I do wish I had just offered.
1 more thing. Noble is currently pressuring (51% me, 48% Noble) a tile of my first ring city that is second ring to him. Our city puts out 10 culture per turn right now, which is still not enough(!) apparently. I might need to detour to drama to build a theatre, and hope that 13 culture is enough. But he might be waiting to attack that city when the tile flips (5-ish turns?), so I'm reinforcing it. It's actually a really big problem. I should have asked for peace last turn.
Actually, a better idea would be to build some (relatively) pointless wonders there, just for the culture. It's a hammer city after all. I should have been doing that for the last 10 turns, I have no idea why it didn't occur to me earlier! 
T155
 Looks like Noble isn't waiting for that culture to flip. We got city visibility thanks to some espionage focus over the last 30 turns, and he has a large stack forking Iuniper and Elderflower. Not super surprising, and it explains why he didn't pillage the fish. I had been wondering about that, and it makes perfect sense in retrospect; should have been a dead give-away. Iuniper is under-defended, I probably should have reinforced more equally across the empire. I had been worried about an attack on Basil, the shrine city, so most of our army is down here. I guess this is where the adage 'expect the unexpected' applies. He's almost certainly going to attack next turn, because if he doesn't I can reinforce to make it much more difficult, and I'm sure he knows that. I've made sure Elderflower is best-protected of the two, since it's a much more valuable city, but I think we might lose Iuniper. Sloppy play by me - I think I've improved a little at peace-time Civ, but I'm still pretty terrible at warfare. It doesn't help that I enjoy building a lot better than fighting. I should take some aggressive picks in my next few games, to force myself to learn it. I sent a peace offer to try and save our city, but I seriously doubt he takes it here. Demos, to give you an idea of just how absurdly far ahead Noble is in GNP. I am still happy to concede this whenever the others are. They also give an idea how far ahead of the other 2nd-placers we are now, as we are no. 1 in MFG, and no. 2 in GNP at 0%, while Civac (who I thought was the best of the rest) is somehow still behind us in a GA. I'm not really sure why we ended up ahead of them; I doubt I played especially well given my skill level. But I guess I'm not complaining. 
Hi, I remember I was talking to Tarkeel about this around a week ago, actually. Am I allowed to publicly call for concession? I love a good comeback story as much as anyone, but look at those demos and add CKN into the mix - this game ends with Noble a generation ahead in tech, galleon razing everyone's coast, and being able to fight us 4v1 (let alone 2v1, which is more likely). This isn't PB58, where the game is still extremely close. It's not PB55, where there was a runaway, but within plausibly catchable distance. This one ends with Noble stomping over everything, and there is seriously no other possibility.
It feels like a pretty special case, and I genuinely doubt anyone else is enjoying PB56 right now. Even civac, now that his fun Taj steal is over, must now realise that it doesn't actually get us into a winning position. So yeah, is it allowed? Or can I ask lurkers to at least check with every player if they are willing to concede?
No, it's normally not allowed. But we lurkers can feel the pulse of players.
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Thanks for the quick answer - too quick for the inevitable Amica edit.
 But thanks. Can I request that the other players are checked in on?
T156
Signed white peace with Noble. Saved our city, and gives us 10 turns to try and catch up. That probably sounds pretty futile, given the absurd GNP gap, and maybe it is. But so is attacking - that's why I want to concede.  We'll see if Noble can make any progress towards Gira. The 1% of games where I come back from here involve Noble trying, and failing, to mount an attack in the south. I think Noble is a lot smarter than that. |
