[PB56] NobleHelium Tells It Like It Is

[Serdoa]

C3 Cuirassier vs C2 25% Fortify Pikeman @ 28.5%: LOSS, down to 64 HP
C3 Cuirassier vs C2 20% Fortify Pikeman @ 29.4%: LOSS, down to 28 HP
C3 Cuirassier vs C1 25% Fortify Pikeman @ 30.3%: LOSS, down to 28 HP
C3 Cuirassier vs C1 25% Fortify Pikeman @ 30.3%: LOSS, down to 46 HP
C2 Shock Cuirassier vs C2 Pikeman @ 34.1%: WIN, down to 60 HP
C2 Shock Cuirassier vs C1 Pikeman @ 36.5%: LOSS, down to 24 HP
C2 Shock Cuirassier vs C1 Pikeman @ 36.5%: LOSS, down to 43 HP
C2 Cuirassier vs C1 Pikeman @ 32.9%: LOSS, down to 81 HP
C2 Knight vs C1 81 HP Pikeman @ 38.3%: WIN, down to 54 HP
C3 Knight vs Longbowman @ 35.5%: LOSS, down to 24 HP
C1 Knight vs Longbowman @ 25.9%: LOSS, down to 46 HP
C1 Knight vs Longbowman @ 25.9%: LOSS, down to 46 HP
C2 Knight vs C2 25% Fortify 64 HP Pikeman @ 62.6%: WIN, down to 12 HP
C2 Knight vs 25% Fortify Axeman @ 63.8%: WIN, down to 24 HP
C3 Knight vs 25% Fortify Axeman @ 71.0%: WIN, down to 10 HP
C1 Knight vs War Elephant @ 65.2%: LOSS, no damage
C1 Knight vs War Elephant @ 65.2%: WIN, down to 81 HP
C1 Knight vs War Elephant @ 65.2%: LOSS, down to 40 HP
C1 Knight vs War Elephant @ 65.2%: LOSS, down to 60 HP
Knight vs Knight @ 50.0%: LOSS, down to 40 HP
Knight vs C1 25% Fortify 46 HP Pikeman @ 80.5%: LOSS, down to 14 HP
Knight vs C1 43 HP Pikeman @ 85.5%: WIN, down to 31 HP
Knight vs 60 HP War Elephant @ 95.8%: WIN, no damage
C2 Horse Archer vs 46 HP Longbowman @ 83.0%: WIN, down to 31 HP
C2 Horse Archer vs 46 HP Longbowman @ 83.0%: WIN, down to 31 HP
C1 Horse Archer vs Horse Archer @ 68.1%: WIN, down to 43 HP
C1 Horse Archer vs C2 20% Fortify 28 HP Pikeman @ 85.5%: WIN, no damage
C1 Horse Archer vs C1 25% Fortify 28 HP Pikeman @ 86.0%: WIN, down to 46 HP
Horse Archer vs C1 24 HP Pikeman @ 89.1%: WIN, down to 73 HP
C2 Formation Horse Archer vs 40 HP War Elephant @ 99.4%: WIN, no damage
Horse Archer vs 40 HP Knight @ 90.4%: LOSS, down to 4 HP
Horse Archer vs 24 HP Longbowman @ 97.8%: WIN, no damage
Horse Archer vs 25% Fortify 14 HP Pikeman @ 99.0%: WIN, down to 19 HP
Horse Archer vs 4 HP Knight @ > 99.9%: WIN, no damage

I know everyone has the odd fight in which he loses at 90% odds or wins at 20%. These are outliers that happened and are pronounced by the fact that battles with just a few fights can go vastly different due to those. In bigger battles all the single results together - with all the outliers - still form an overall picture that is mostly what one would expect.

In the case of the battle for Basil that was not the case. Instead we got unlucky.

As an example: That we lost 4 of the first 5 fights might seem, looking at each one separately, not very surprising, maybe even lucky that we got one win in. But the actual chance for this outcome was 84% - only in 16% of the cases would we lose all of those. That we would win at least 2 had still a chance of 48% of happening.

Unfortunately I have no clue how to compute these chances for all 34 fights (even if I was to ignore that 16 of these fights only happen because the outcome of others was a loss). For example the last fight only happened because we lost at 90.4% odds. So, just my expectations:

We won 2 out of 12 fights while our chances hovered around 26 - 38% -> I would expect to win 3-4 of these
We won 5 out of 9 fights while our chances hovered around 63 - 71% (and once 50%)-> I would expect to win 6 of these
We won 7 out of 9 fights while our chances hovered around 80 - 98% -> I would expect to win 8-9 of these
We won 4 fights with chances above 98%, which I would always expect to win (3 at 99%+)

The 4 fights over 98% were basically clean-up of fights we should have won earlier.

[novice]

Expensive battle, but still, that's gotta hurt even worse for Amica.

All this fighting, and you're fourth in land area!? Some people have it easy.

Absolutely dominant economy game so far.

[NobleHelium]

Amica may have forgotten to end the turn but it would be bad manner for me to poke him about it now given that I just razed his city.

[NobleHelium]

Great Spies not having Commando is ABSOLUTE BULLSHIT.

[Charriu]

They still are better as a normal spy, because they have more movement points and they can never be caught in enemy territory

[NobleHelium]

They have 2 movement without Commando. It is questionable whether they are better and thus that is stupid.

[Charriu]

In my opinion they are better to explore enemy territory then a normal spy. Don't forget that you can also use them for a golden age, while they are in enemy territory, so there is no reason to keep them stationed back home. Yes they only have 2 movement without Commando, but normal spies on enemy roads also only move 2 tiles before Engineering, if they benefit from Engineering at all, would need to test that. But for me the main factor is that they are invisible and can't be caught by the overcomplicated detection system.

[NobleHelium]

Of course Commandos benefit from Engineering. They can also use enemy railroads. The point is that there is no reason for Great Spies not to be strictly better than regular spies. THEY ARE GREAT SPIES. Yes, thanks for telling me that they can be used for a Golden Age.

[Charriu]

Of course, I didn't want to imply that they should not be improved because they are GREAT SPIES. But at the same time I do think that this is a minor issue.

[NobleHelium]

Of course it's a minor issue. At the same time I can't believe you can think that another change you just mentioned in a different thread is almost akin to a bug fix given this reaction to my mostly off-hand comment.