Turn 203 (1430 AD)
Superdeath seems to have suspect priorities, as he completes the Shwedagon Paya. On the other hand, he's missing Monotheism, so it does actually unlock some choices for him. MrCairo took two cities from AT as expected, and this turn has a side-stack at the city of Sabine, one of ATs southern holdings. We're going to take Elan this turn, but soften it up with some catapults first.
The Battle of Elan
B2 Catapult vs CG2 Musket, 0.3%: loss (5 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs Grenadier, 0.5%: withdraw! (9 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG2 Musket (7.0), 5.5%: withdraw! (7 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs Grenadier (9.8), 8.2%: withdraw! (6 rounds)
Our insane combat luck is holding, we had no business getting even a single withdraw from that.
C2 Shock Cuirassier vs C2 Knight (7.0), 96.5% + 0.5%: Win!
C1 Shock/Pinch Cuirassier vs Knight (7.0): 99.0% + 0.2%: Win!
C2 Cuirassier vs Musket (6.3), 98.8% + 0.2%: Win!
C1 Pinch Cuirassier vs Longbow (4.4), 99.1% + 0.1%: Win!
C1 Musket vs Musket (6.3), 84.6%: Win!
C1 Musket vs Musket (6.3), 84.6%: Win!
C1 Shock Ballistaphant vs Knight (6.4), 99.3%: Win!
C1 Ballistaphant vs CG2 Musket (2.3), 98.9%: Win!
W1 Musket vs Grenadier (3.0), 99.8%: Win!
CG1 Rifle vs Grenadier (3.0), >99.9%: Win!
The city comes with 105g, granary, lighthouse and a forge so we keep it. We even managed to save most of the heavy hitters, which can advance to join the siege of Roy.
The Siege of Roy
B2 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier, <0.1%: loss (3 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier, <0.1%: loss (5 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier (9.8), <0.1%: loss (4 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG1 Grenadier, <0.1%: loss (5 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier (8.6), 0.5%: loss (3 rounds)
B2 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier (8.6), 0.5%: loss (3 rounds)
B1 Catapult vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier (8.6), 0.5%: loss (3 rounds)
C1 Pinch Cavalry vs CG3 D1 Subutai/Grenadier (8.6), 62.2% + 11.3%: Win!
C1 Pinch Cavalry vs CG1 Grenadier (10.9), 69.2% + 9.2%: Win!
C1 Pinch Cavalry vs CG1 Longbow (5.4), 75.7% + 7.3%: Win!
C1 Shock/Pinch Cavalry vs CG1 Grenadier (10.9), 75.5% + 7.4%: Win!
C2 Pinch Cuirassier vs CG1 Grenadier (9.8), 69.4% + 4.6%: Win!
C2 Pinch Cuirassier vs CG1 Grenadier (9.8), 71.7% + 4.2%: Win!
At this point the odds are becoming worse, but I'll give it a small shot:
C1 Shock/Pinch Cuirassier vs CG2 Musket, 54.7% + 6.8%: loss
Luckily that opened up some new decent odds again:
C1 Shock/Pinch Cuirassier vs CG1 Grenadier, 69.2% + 4.6%: loss
C1 Shock/Pinch Cuirassier vs CG1 Musket, 69.4% + 4.6%: Win!
All the odds from here are in the 30s, which I'm not willing to take. We might have to wait for our cannons to show up, but that will be some turns in transit. Worst case we actually have to race MrC to it, but we'll take that when it comes.
Three of AT's remaining cities can be seen here, MrC is likely to capture Sabine and possibly even Xykon this turn. The last is Blackwing, a size two island city defended by four muskets and a longbow. SD has two rifles landed, which hopefully shouldn't be able to take it anytime soon. We'll have two amphibious cavalry there in about three turns.
Our tech-lead seems to be holding up nicely.