[PB64] Lurking Randomly

[Magic Science]

Amicalola is the only player who understands how bad his economic situation really is, because the self-imposed no-cottage variant is not public knowledge. If he had been building and working cottages for the past many turns like a normal person, as naufragar and Commodore silently assume, then his crashed economy would recover before much longer. Also it would not be as badly crashed in the first place. But without cottages, Amicalola is just screwed. Maybe Serfdom-boosted farms and mills could have saved his economy instead, but he crashed his economy by fighting for south central while Monarchy and Machinery were still far away.
That, along with an unhealthy helping of poor morale, explains why he rates his own position so much worse than everyone else does.

[Magic Science]

And the city razing isn't as unreasonable as Amica is making it out to be either, between maintenance costs and the giant middle finger it would be to Nauf to hold onto a city so close to his core (and massed army), it's not exactly a valuable city.

Gavagai has been trying to coordinate a war alliance with naufragar against Amicalola for a while now, and Gav can't win the war without that alliance, and that alliance would break if he tried to be so greedy about the spoils. I agree that razing the city was the correct choice.

[El Grillo]

Yeah, Amica mentioned using loans to distort the demographics to appear less threatening, but that might have backfired in a couple of ways since the other players just checked the active deals screen, on top of the issue with his lack of cottages that the other players don't know about. Hopefully he can rally morale and get some favorable combat results before Commodore hits his island cities and tilts him even further.

[Mjmd]

Based on Naufs screenshot it doesn't look like Gav is going to be an active attacker in the war. Assuming no peace treaty was sent, my guess is he plans on just being threatening on the border and letting the two leaders now slightly more even ( in theory in his view ) fight it out. I do expect Commodore to maybe enter the fray vs Amica as well as I don't think he can make progress against Ginger.

[Mjmd]

Ya if I was Gav I wouldn't have actually moved in. I think just waiting on the sidelines, tying down troops, and letting Nauf take the advancing hits would have been my line. This screenshot looks bad for his stack. 

[Charriu]

Is there the vaguest hint of coast in that red circle? Perhaps in the fog 2E of the fish? As a side note, I must say that Commodore's game has been wild. The guy started out with a terrible starting position, grabbed Colossus ahead of the guy that Oracled Metal Casting, got invaded by that guy after he beelined Crossbows, survived after the loss of a city and his entire economy in tribute payment, retook the city he lost to the Crossbow guy, and now (presumably by choice and not accident) is at war with the game leader and may be poised to take territory off him. I mean, that's just a fairy tale of a Civ4 game.

Pretty good description by nauf.

[Mjmd]

To be fair he thought Ginger bulbed MC and didn't realize it was a machinery bulb instead. But yes Commodore has had a wild game. He is still vaguely in this as long as Nauf doesn't get to just roll up Amica.

[Krill]

Commodore is overconfident and is about to run into a wall (pun not intended).

[Magic Science]

For sure. I get that Ginger should have less swordsmen and more phalanxes, but Commodore only knows that to be true about a fraction of Ginger's army, and Ginger still has the defender's advantage and a lot more power.

[Thoth]

Commodore stack doesn't seem up to taking Gingers border city. Not without another 4-5 cats at least.