[PB64] Lurking Randomly

[Miguelito]

My point is just that Gav got just recently battered badly by naufragar, was reverted to Despotism and while he probably can chew through superdeath's stack he'll still lose power while doing so. Granted, without the whip Ginger might not get the knights into the field quickly enough to seize the moment . And of course as always critique from the sidelines is cheap and easy.

[Krill]

Gav did get mauled but still has a good chunk of pop right? Whereas Com is quite limited with pop and transport between cities. My only point here is that it is a slightly more complex decision to understand, as this discussion demonstrates. I don't know the right answer, sitting here in the lurker thread.

[Magic Science]

If Ginger attacks Gavagai, Commodore will attack Ginger again as soon as the peace treaty is over, just as he has many times already.
If Ginger attacks Commodore, Gavagai will leave Ginger in peace just as he has for the past many turns.

Commodore is Ginger's mortal enemy. As long as Commodore's civilization is intact, Ginger will need to maintain a large force at the Dune-Kevin borderland to hold him off. Given that, why not combine that large defensive force with the large offensive force necessary to capture more land and achieve two objectives at once?

[Krill]

Com knows he is a dead man if he attacks Ginger as he would never know where the knights are and could not hold cities against the culture.

He would look to naval raiding but that would mean obsolete the Colossus so he would probably sit back and try to skip this series of wars.

[Mjmd]

It looks like SD razed the Gav city nearest Ginger. Seems like an easy vulture spot for Ginger if nothing else.

[Mjmd]

What do people think . I don't think Ginger has enough cats either for offense or defense. If Commodore has more non HA I think he would have a 'good' shot of a first strike. Man why did he build 17 regular archers. I understand the first batch was for defense but even if you assume that was 10, the other 7 regular archers could be say 5 axes which would be a lot more useful right now. I don't underestimate cat axe after seeing Ramk defend with that combo. That being said, those regular archers will cause Ginger to slowly bombard with his 5 cats..... allowing Commodore to get more reinforcements in.

[Krill]

Ginger: 29 hitters, 33 if he takes the unit fro the fort (he should do). 5 cats. 1 knight, 12 WE.

Com: 9 LB, 9 archers, 4 GW, 2 axe, 1 spear (25 defenders) plus 2 WE and 10 HA, 12 cats.

If Ginger tries to bombard Com will attack out. It looks like he will have 1 cat for every good hitter Ginger has and the good hitters are half his stack, so the collateral will probably cover everything; not like Ginger has many cats which are immune. Then the WE take out the top few good health WE, he uses the GW to clear out the other hard defenders then his HA will wipe out the cats via flanking. If he does that without moving his archers or LB then Ginger will not have enough units to take the city.

The problem for Ginger is that Com has done this before and he knows how to defend this style of attack. There is no way to push past short of spending 3 turns moving on flatland and he has no fast movers committed.

I think Ginger needs to have a good 20 fast movers in the fog to be confident of this attack, but he has to put the entire stack outside Caoimhin. If he has or researches Engineering and he keeps them in Dune he could try and "bait" Com into an attack at the start of T158 by just moving up the visible stack, and then use the healthy fastmovers to clean up.

The problem is that he would just be running them into a walled city with 8 LB and 10 archers.

Out of the two, I'd probably come down on the side that Commodore can defend this, but some bad luck can screw it up. Some good luck could lead to a stack wipe.

[Hitru]

That sounds like way too few cats to bring from Ginger

[Mjmd]

Notice the huge cash boon? Superdeath paid me 400g to cancel deals with Gavagai. He's also trading me stone for my silk, so mass castles are due extremely soon.

I mean I know Gav was getting good trade income probably from Commodore, but this seems excessive........ I'm always a little leery of this kind of thing when it gets to higher amounts.

[El Grillo]

Maybe Comm was trading luxuries and SD is trying to exacerbate Gav’s happiness crunch after losing access to Representation? Still eyebrow-raising, especially since lump sum gold deals don’t show up in the foreign advisor screen so the other players are unlikely to know about it.