[SPOILERS] swans will bite u

[ljubljana]

Maybe China shouldn't be my top choice, and this discussion is making me a bit less confident in that claim. But the plan for them is to stack the Great Lighthouse, Terracotta Army, and Victor 3 to make a terrifying fleet of LoB frigates and double-promoted caravels with +1 movement, which should outfight something like unpromoted Zevens and caravels pretty easily. They have plausible access to a Great Admiral too via faith-purchase, significant acceleration towards Mercenaries and Square Rigging from Sacred Places and guaranteed Free Inquiry, and can easily hold captured territory and get big with its perpetual Golden Age. I think China should shine at converting the Portuguese hoard into a concrete military advantage compared to more narrowly-focused UU-based civs, while also plausibly dropping to 7th due to underperformance in PBEM20.

But, you know, we gotta actually test that to see if it holds up in practice or not, which is exactly what I intend to make TAD do as soon as I have the opportunity

[williams482]

I don't believe any of the cree bonuses would help Portugal here. They only apply to the Cree trade routes.

[ljubljana]

They only apply to the Cree trade routes.

Awww, are you sure? That's definitely for the best though from a balance perspective 

[williams482]

Regarding China, yeah I think you're in to something. Those two wonders are hugely impactful, and timed right can have a similar impact as a naval UU.

Timing is tricky though. Great Lighthouse works forever and can be safely built early with no loss, but terracotta is a one time boost that another team may well steal (a la chevalier and the lighthouse) if we wait for maximum benefit to a frigate fleet. Those free promotions aren't without disadvantage either: as I mentioned in my Diomede reports they do push the timeline for promote healing back to a meaningful degree, and once those ships are dead you are back to square one.

Great Lighthouse is freaking enormous though, no question about it. And the ability to turn builders into era score via mediocre wonders isn't bad either for securing the ship speed GA.

All told, I'd much prefer to have zevens than easier access to terracotta army, but with the other wonders and econ benefits folded in I can definitely see your point.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, I dunno, I want to test them both and Egypt as well before we make a commitment. Those two TR synergies could ramp us up the growth curve quickly enough to beat China's frigavel time while also providing a more lasting benefit than the one-time-use Terracotta Army.

re the army though, here's how we could time it: Finish the encampment, buy the barracks (trivial with Portugal as a partner), then keep a bunch of one-charge builders around and pour them into the Army all on the same turn. This can theoretically be sniped, but the sniper would have to act pre-emptively as the usual TA warning signs are the GG points and we'd finish the wonder on the same turn we start accumulating those under this plan. We could then counter-snipe ourselves by watching the GG points and rushing the wonder as soon as someone hits +2 per turn. Not perfect but I think better than any civ reliant on chopping out the Army is likely to do

edit: In this vein, can opponents see that we are building an encampment somewhere by checking our cities in diplomacy? We want the answer to be yes, I think, because we will have chops to spare to mask that if needed while someone trying to chop out the wonder probably will not.

[williams482]

Yup, unfinished districts are visible in the diplo screen.

I'm not worried about being the first to the wonder in general, more being first to it at a time when it is maximally useful, shortly before we mass upgrade our fleet and go try to kill someone. I wouldn't be shocked if someone builds multiple encampments or an encampment+barracks in pursuit of a GG to boost marine actions, etc, so watching the point accumulations isn't foolproof either.

[ljubljana]

I wouldn't be shocked if someone builds multiple encampments or an encampment+barracks in pursuit of a GG to boost marine actions

True, true. I think here we are helped somewhat by how strong the field is though - PBEM20 pretty conclusively shows that pouring more resources into the navy beats wasting time buffing your land units, and I doubt that will be lost on thrawn or Chevalier or Woden. Woden did build encampments last time, but not pre-frigates I don't think, and we also had berserkers and therefore a uniquely good reason to actually bother with them.

relatedly: please please please please please thrawn just take indonesia pleeeeeeease don't break my wretched little heart </3

[Ginger()]

I’m not sold on China because the wonders aren’t free, they still cost Builders that could be improvements or districts or additional cheap ancient ships to upgrade. As Indonesia I wonder if you shouldn’t build one holy site just to take Pilgrimage and spread Religion to your ally for additional free boats, but idk what the ROI/timing on that is, so it might not pay off in time if ~turn100 is go time.
On the other hand I will always be an advocate for having a long term economic engine that isn’t reliant on the success of one push.

Also, as far as carts to be tied to the Portuguese horse, I think you made a good point about Wilhelmina’s synergy, Dutch can probably reach tier 2 governments before go-time with no Theater squares. But also what about Australia instead of Korea?

I think you’re right that Portugal is the best first choice (I think partly out of denial as well), but I don’t really see “too much gold” as a problem as you can always dump that into infrastructure in low production cities to get them up to speed.
Also what is the diplomacy like is it always war? Portugal has a secret power I think in that you could bribe/prop up people in their wars. Also another bonus is that they seem to go well with everything, you’re spoiled for choice as a partner civ

But if you don’t get Portugal, what’s the backup combo? England’s trade routes could buff the Dutch in a similar way.

[williams482]

If we don't get China and someone else does, sneaking in a midgame (discounted) encampment+barracks wouldn't be a bad way to put some pressure on them.

I'm not sure PBEM20 makes much of an argument either way about investment in ground forces, though. China/Indonesia were rendered both irrelevant and secure by their defensive city placements and investment in ground troops, most of which were likely built after it became clear they were losing the war. The other big ground engagements were Woden's berserker marines smacking the pitiful Australian army around, and me squandering a horde of cossacks against your pikes and city strikes, both of which definitely made a difference to the course of that game.

I think the big takeaway is that although you won't turn a clearly losing position into a clearly winning position with ground troops, they can make a big difference in keeping you alive to try and mount a comeback, or on the flip side, actually conquering territory once you win the seas well enough to land your forces. Then there's the embarked unit support bonus crap to consider. So while I'm sure that nobody is going to invest all their resources into a swarm of medieval troops and try to float them over to an enemy unescorted, I suspect most players will be putting some thought and resources into how they can capture landlocked or relatively sheltered cities.

[ljubljana]

Yeah, true enough, the builder requirements are most likely to be what holds China back. Although it should really help that we don't strictly need to build lighthouses or Petra or the Colossus with Portugal to draft off of. And China does also get +1 charge/builder natively and another from the Pyramids, so hopefully the demands on them won't be toooo extreme. I guess we'll just have to see during testing....

I think the only really essential wonders for China are Stonehenge, Pyramids (free anyways since it replaces its own builder), GLH, and Terracotta, which is not toooo too many builders required. But I guess we'll see.....

The thing about Indonesia's faith-boats is that they're actually annoyingly pricey - Jongs are 600 each and quads I think are 240, which is hard to consistently accumulate without investment. In our test game I barely had enough for the GA which is the one essential purchase, and I'm not sure a holy site would change that math more than just spending those hammers on two more quads...

Australia would make a rad Portugal partner if we can get it! I mentally have them in the bucket of "very unlikely to fall to 7th" since they went second last time. But there are a lot of must-pick civs on this roster so surely someone has to fall through the cracks, right?

re backup plan for no portugal: LOL IDK

my backup plan is to hope thrawn doesn't take them harder

Phoenicia/England + Dutch is a really good point and deserves a test game. Indonesia + (idk someone with money) could work too but I'm really scared about the time window thing and P/E have better staying power I think. I dunno man thrawn just please don't do it (((