[SPOILERS] swans will bite u

[williams482]

I'm thinking you should both switch and crank out a small fleet after your settlers. As long as there are city states to capture that should pay off, plus the obvious security benefits. And, double the chance at getting lucky with finding a natural wonder before Astrology is completed naturally.

Woden finding a new continent definitely seems like the most likely explanation, given that we had a new continent close by. A Natural Wonder and contacting another player is also possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[ljubljana]

I think if it were an NW or contact, Banzai would have earned ES too on their turn, which I didn't observe. Discovering a new continent would just give Woden points....if that event actually works in a team game? but if it doesn't work, i can't think of any other explanation that would have triggered on turn 3...

The interesting thing is, if we do discover the continent to my SW this turn, we could be revealing our presence to our western neighbor, like Woden has seemingly revealed themself to us. If that neighbor is thrawn, that might not be something we want... especially if they are going for Twilight Valor still and hoping to make it through the era without contacting more than one team...

....or is it something we want, if the milpower scores will show us with an early lead and thrawn will know their immediate neighbor is Japan and not Portugal? maybe it could push thrawn to explore west instead towards a hopefully softer team? if they are trying for TV they will pretty much have to attack their first contact, at least until the era change, since thrawn lacks the ES headroom to make a second, so perhaps we should create an incentive for them to actively avoid us instead of maybe stumbling on our ships...

[ljubljana]

ok, so, is a dark age for thrawn actually something we should be seriously expecting? they are at 2 ES right now, and MUST take 6 from a longship and 2 more from contacting their longship rush victims if they want to maximize their window. so they can get a dark age if they can take literally zero ES on top of that in the next 58 turns. that means no shipbuilding, no pantheon, and no poliphil, which is impractical but i guess not impossible? is there any other ES source that they can't avoid taking between now and then?

it would sure be unfortunate if, by BEATING thrawn to the first boats, we actually end up enabling their twilight valor play (since the first boat is worth 3 instead of 2). but idk if we can delay for that reason as it's not like chev's going to. what we COULD do is leave the likely-continent by me unscouted so thrawn will risk bumping into it if they come for us. but i'm not sure how likely they are to go for TV really and if they don't, i could really use the era score...

edit: nahhh if thrawn really wants to attack us without discovering a continent, they will just use a sumerian galley to minesweep for them ahead of the longship fleet. so no real reason to avoid it i think. japan is the second-worst immediate neighbor for them behind chev, so i'd guess that revealing myself probably reduces their odds of targeting us on balance, if their plan really is to go for a DA by choosing exactly one team to contact in the ancient era. and if our western neighbor is chev/inc of course we want to both deny them the ES and guide them towards thrawn asap

flaw in that logic though: if thrawn scouts east, finds a continent, and does NOT take ES, they will have no way of knowing if that means japan is on the the other side (so avoid) or woden (so attack asap). that is unless we can manage to name some features between the two of us

speaking of which i'd better look at the ocean names on my next turn

[williams482]

If Thrawn is hoping for a dark classical as Norway, the play is to basically do nothing for 60 turns. Delay building the UU boat in hopes that someone else builds the first boat, but crank out a whole bunch of them to sit around doing zilch until meeting someone, at which point start zerg rushing them. No tier 1 government, no good district adjacencies, no barb camp clears, no exploring, and hope you don't stumble upon a new continent, natural wonder, or additional players when blindly feeling around into the dark for the territory of whoever met you.

I have a very hard believing Thrawn would seriously consider a strategy of doing almost nothing, and limiting the use of his civ's early game focused uniques in the process. It's incredibly risky and the advantages are nice but not game breaking.

I'm betting he goes for a golden classical and dark medieval. Much more attainable, and synergizes with his early era score and exploration bonuses from his uniques.

[ljubljana]

seems very likely correct to me. especially avoiding shipbuilding is a nightmare for them as longships can't even cross oceans until then which is one of the biggest draws of this early rush anyways. but maybe they would be okay with that specifically not coming online until TV does on turn 61? idk, i think you're probably right but i'm going to keep a close eye on their ES anyways...

[ljubljana]

Turn 4 - Japan

guess who made the best scouting decision of their short, dumb life:



Nuna is THE SAME continent as the one TAD found to their NE so we know nothing about our neighbors after all

i stuck to astrology this turn, as there is one reason i might change my mind about sailing first - if the terrain at this cs turns out to be either unconquerable or utter garbage. but if not, and if TAD doesn't say otherwise, i will likely swap both of us to sailing next turn.

if my second boat finishes on t27 we are looking at a t31 CS conquest, which HAS to be a record. kickass :D

[ljubljana]

guys, i'm getting kinda nervous.... this island looks pretty big.... it does NOT look like a 5-6 city island, as i would expect if the game setup were just "PBEM20 but with teams on separate islands"........

what if the twist....is that someone ELSE is here too :O

i sure hope not, japan does NOT want to have to defend against a ground invasion from the likes of Woden's Gaul or, oh god, war carts....

[williams482]

The fact that land masses on opposite sides of your islands are the same continent means that this map is heavily doctored in at least one way. Also worth noting that the map was completed after civ picks were made (somewhat infamously), and I'm sure someone had to raise a red flag if the map created specifically enabled a civ normally banned because they can pull off an unstoppable land rush.

There's not enough to go on just yet, obviously, but I'm predicting that the team starts will be relatively isolated, with "Nuna" comprising chains of islands or isthmuses separating the players. Perhaps a less extreme version of the PBEM21 map.

Definitely don't panic about map possibilities yet.

[ljubljana]

ok, well, i think you are both hopefully and probably right... thanks for talking me down lol

and if that IS true, looks like civs were given quite the backyard. unless my land ends immediately to the west of what i can see, i think japan is looking at 7-8 cities on the main landmass alone. plus the feitoria paradise between our capitals, plus whatever city-states we can bum-rush...

[ljubljana]

outside chance river goddess could be our pantheon choice? we will be perpetually amenity-starved w all this FtW food otherwise... and it actually comes online immediately with no builder charges required, alleviating the early amenities crunch at the first two cities to the tune of, well, probably straight-up 10% on all yields until we can get builders out for plantations, which could be some time from now. plus, because nobody else would dream of choosing it, we would NEVER have to run god king, not even for a nanosecond :D