As a French person I feel like it's my duty to explain strikes to you. - AdrienIer

Create an account  

 
[SPOILERS] swans will bite u

Turn 20 - Japan



Here's what passes for a big turn in the early-game smile

Hakuho finishes the settler with 9 hammers from PFH+PJH, drops to size 1 working PJH, and regrows to size 2 after adding 2 surplus food from the PJH. Note that we're actually one food ahead of where I expected to be - we effectively got a turn of working the 9 hammer configuration at a +2 food surplus! With 29 base hammers needed for the HS, we will get 13 this turn, then 8 the two following turns, and are on track for the 3-turn build, at least according to the interface. I chose to do the PFH turn first as a hedge against somehow having my math wrong here - it just makes me feel better to see that 3 on the screen instead of a 4, I guess lol

Similarly, I didn't switch to sailing after finishing Astro this turn, as it would finish next turn with overflow and I'm paranoid that finishing a tech will mess up the HS math somehow even though I know I have no rational reason to be. Instead, after lots of second-guessing between it and Pottery -> Irrigation, I put a turn into AH so we can see where the horses are before the second city places its holy site. Of the six visible horse-eligible tiles on my island, fully half of them are at the second city, and accidentally paving over the horse would be a huge setback to the growth curve. Luckily, discovering a third tech with 2 civics in the bank will not escalate the HS cost, so we do have the headroom necessary to do this. But I do have to remember to swap back to sailing next turn so it will finish on t23 like we need it to.

Lastly, barbs. Despite an ominous move from the scout, I attacked the camp this turn and rolled expected value, doing 29 damage to 28 damage taken and earning 5 XP. I think I'd better heal this turn to avoid unnecessary risks, but after that I might attack again instead of healing to 92 health so I can get in THREE boosted hits before we swap out of Discipline on t23. Then we can promote-heal and clean up the camp no problem smile

A shot of Portugal, with TAD's hilarious 4 vision settler scouting on its way to the second city site:



Two big tells to look for in the scores this turn - settler pop-drops and Foreign Trade completions. The following players visibly completed a settler with a capital dropping to size 1:

- Woden
- Banzailizard
- TheArchduke
(- Chevalier last turn)

Of course, thrawn/krill could easily have hid theirs with pop growth, as our Japan did, so I think the best assumption is still that all players save incurian currently have a settler out.

The following players completed Foreign Trade this turn, and likely immediately started on ships:

- Banzailizard
- thrawn
- TheArchduke

Notably, CMF could have done so with their t10 monument but didn't, and probably has some clefs in Craftsmanship like me as a result. So no evidence yet that any other team is double-fisting early galleys like we are, though a part of me still expects such evidence to start trickling in over the next few turns.

Oh, and incurian cleared a barb camp this turn, which had BETTER not respawn next to us frown But I didn't hear the camp spawn noise at the end of my turn this time, so I'm guessing we finally lucked out on that front.

I am wondering if the monument at my second city might be a more compelling second purchase than Portugal's second trader... 2 culture seems to be worth a bit more than 9 gold/1 faith in the early game, and that city really wants BOTH the second-ring crabs and sheep ASAP so it can get to size 4 with only tile improvements. Also, I do not really have the hammer headroom to hard-build the monument any time soon as we are already committed to galley-first to hit Geneva, and I think a builder is then the mandatory second build to fix the housing nightmare.
Reply

I think your assessment of the foreign situation checks out. Thrawn+Krill seem virtually certain to have planned simultaneous growth with the settlers given Thrawn's established micro tendencies, so no surprise there.

Good question on trader vs monument. The monument is definitely the standard play, with good reason; in addition to tile growth considerations it accelerates your progress towards a number of key civic targets. On the other hand, a trader will return the investment in ~19 turns, which is pretty damn quick. I lean monument, but I haven't really dug into this one yet.

Speaking of, why hasn't the first trader been purchased yet?
Reply

Trader hasn't been purchased because we have an activated water barb camp in the north (from that barb galley that was poking around on t9ish) and need to wait for a galley escort (IMO). If we jump the gun and it gets plundered in the next 3 turns we are in BIG trouble. TAD is working on what should be a 4-turn galley now, and I think once it's one turn from completion we can send the trader out (since we can see all the tiles within a one-turn barb galley move). 27 gold in opportunity cost seems a fair price to pay for being CERTAIN the trader will live....but perhaps that is paranoid of me? idk, what do you think?

it is pretty awkward for sure because we now have gold sitting around that's not being used, AND i think even though we will have enough for a monument in a few turns, the FIRST gold purchase must be portugal's trader for the pantheon acceleration. but these water camps don't mess around and we might literally just lose if it gets plundered frown

re monument vs trader for the second build, the main argument that i can see is that we really don't want to delay EITHER, but it seems easier to find room to hand-build TAD's second trader (perhaps in the second city?) than my second city monument (which the second city CANNOT build until after galley + builder + holy site i think). if the second city has a first-ring horse maybe we can delay it though - the main impetus is to get up to 5 housing in time to hit size 4 for the campus before the era change, which as it stands requires two border pops or an otherwise-worthless farm
Reply

Oh, yikes. That's very bad news. Early barb quads are nasty, and those camps are basically impossible to clear until shipbuilding.

On the bright side, with the forces we have coming along in the next dozen turns or so protecting that trader shouldn't be too hard given the sheltered path it will be taking. Archduke's galley can just sit on it, tank a few hits if necessary, and rely on subsequent ships to actually kill the barb ships. If the trader path was more vulnerable I would push for buying a monument with the gold instead, but I think you're correct in this case.
Reply

well, there actually is one HUGE bright side to the camp if we are very careful - it can be farmed for Embolon experience. if TAD can get enough promotions from barbs to justify opening amani -> science pingala instead of victor 3, it would be a major accelerant towards our power spike at cartography. i think we probably wouldn't want to clear it before shipbuilding even if we could for that reason, although naturally we can't have forces tied up on barb duties when push comes to shove re the vikings. but ostensibly that can be where amani comes in, barbs aren't smart enough to kick us out of mogadishu (if its suzereign bonus is implemented well enough to actually protect vs barb plunderings :|)

and yeah, the shape of the strait is such that just two galleys can block it from the north pretty much indefinitely. plus with the sight bonus TAD can see them coming a mile away. if it were thrawn that'd be one thing but surely we can hold it against barbs...
Reply

Discovered something odd and likely buggy about Nau upgrades - look at the XP tracker of this Nau, which was upgraded from an Embolon galley:



Similarly, this one was upgraded from an unpromoted galley:



So it looks like when we upgrade a galley to a Nau, it will get its free promotion but then skip an experience level, which will leave it unlikely to ever earn enough XP for any future promotions. That's not such a big deal for the Reinforced Hull ones as a melee ship rarely lives long enough to hit level 3 anyways (none of mine did in PBEM20). But for Embolon Naus it does represent a significant opportunity cost, which I think increases the weight we should place on promoting as many galleys as we can before upgrade time...

Has behavior like this been documented before with free-promotion units, to anyone's knowledge? Naturally it would be of significant use to us if some kind of workaround could be found, though it's hard for me to imagine what form it might take...
Reply

That is definitely strange. Normally free promotions are handled by giving the unit exactly enough experience to reach the next promotion, but here it looks like the Nau literally just gets a free promotion, without the experience to match. The unit isn't actually skipping a level or anything ("level 4" is the third promotion, because the levels are 1-indexed, and 90 XP is the usual threshold to reach it), but it does miss out on the experience a 2 promotion/level 3 unit would normally have accrued in order to get there.

Baffling, and yet not all that surprising, that the behavior here is not the same as the seemingly identical free promotion granted by some generals/admirals. Did the devs on this game not talk to each other?

Tactically, this means we will essentially have two types of Naus in our fleet: the Reinforced Hull ones that got a promotion before upgrading and are substantially more durable and can hold the line effectively but won't get promote-heals in any reasonable timeframe, good for holding choke points or the front lines in large scale engagements, and the Embolon ones which should be held slightly further back, used to get kills and hold parts of the formation where taking damage is expected but being killed outright is unlikely. Obviously it would be better if the Nau free promotion gave the appropriate experience too, but giving that second promotion at all is absolutely still a useful advantage. Especially since the first two promotions are by far the most important ones for this unit type, and the 4th promotion is super marginal. (+14 combat strength against naval raiders? Why?)
Reply

Ahh, got it, yeah, you suspected correctly that I was tripped up by the 1-indexing. As for the devs, I guess maybe NFP was far enough along in the dev cycle that the ones who worked on that were largely different from the ones who did the base game? Still, though, it's bizarre that there evidently isn't some kind of top-level "grant free promotion" routine that handles all of this...

Agreed on the tactical implications. For a while now, I've wanted to see Convoy in action, but it's probably not practical until the boost to embarked unit speed granted by Steam Power, and given that it's never been used in a PBEM before I'm sure we won't be at a disadvantage due to not having it.
Reply

We're not actually any further from Convoy than anyone else would be. We're just going to have a bunch of double promoted caravels with the same XP as everyone else's single promoted ships, all 75 XP away from their third promotion.

But yeah, no kidding on melee ships generally not surviving to that point regardless. You said you didn't have any ships get there in PBEM20, I know I didn't and I'm pretty damn sure Woden never did. Archduke's überclad only had two promotions, right? I can't imagine anyone else could have come close.

EDIT: actually, Naus give us a better shot at it than anyone else will have. If Archduke ever winds up with a double promoted galley, then upgrade it and boom, there you go.
Reply

Yeah, I had one or two that were close (Mary Rose + Elizabeth Bonaventure, which I think were less than 15 XP away by the end). But they had started as biremes, survived all three major wars, and still didn't make it. Even getting that far required some pretty extensive use of Phoenicia's instant-heals that we won't have access to here. Someone could get Convoy with Artemisia who we have no shot at, but that's obviously worse than a 3-range frigate IMO.

Yeah, good point, if TAD does Victor early we do have a good shot at one or two double-promoted galleys, if we get into a major galley war with another player. Let's hope it doesn't come to that lol
Reply



Forum Jump: