[PB69] Naufragar turns over a new leaf. Randomly.

[naufragar]

Not sure how far ahead of me on the tech tree he'll shoot, but it'll be considerable.

Magic's already some 1000 beakers ahead of me (i.e. 15 turns!)


I believe he researched this the turn before he popped his Golden Age. I'm up Theology on him, but I bulbed that. Magic is a full 1000 beakers ahead of me. I thought I was keeping pace, but dang. Benefits of intercontinental trade, Protective, and 3(!) gold mines. 

Very nice timing to pop this golden age right in time, so he can build windmills with the Serfdom work speed bonus. Very, very scary. After the golden age, I'll be solidly in his rear-view.

[Amicalola]

Do you have kind of rule of thumb for where you build a forge (in this game, or in others)? A long time ago when I was learning, Mjmd recommended to only build them in cities that get 8+ hammers per turn, but over time it seems I've ended up building them basically everywhere (which definitely feels good, but is probably a mistake). It's also different with Serfdom.

[Mjmd]

I believe* I had a clarifier on the timing. In any case I also agree on forges pretty much everywhere, but I don't always build them the instant I get the tech. New cities down the line often do get them pretty fast, but that is because the game is at a different place.

[Krill]

Rule of thumb: ask yourself how long to push 480 (no bonus), 400 (OR), 240 (Ind) and 208 (IND and OR) through the Forge and why you want the hammers later and not right now.

[naufragar]

Rule of thumb: ask yourself how long to push 480 (no bonus), 400 (OR), 240 (Ind) and 208 (IND and OR) through the Forge and why you want the hammers later and not right now.

I love Civ4 because it's just one interesting trade off after another. In fact, there are too many for puny little me to calculate, so I play a lot through feel. Once upon a time, I read in a multiplayer report or one of T-hawk's that a 20 turn payback period is good. That's become sort of ingrained in me. That's probably why I privilege short term leader traits. For this game, which I suspect will last until turn ~250 like PB64, that 20 turn window gets extended. Building a Forge with Organized Religion costs 96 hammers. If it gives you +3 hammers, it pays for itself in 32 turns. (This is pretty much Krill's math above.) For this game, that's about the longest pay back period I'm happy with. So they go up in cities that make a base 12 hammers.

Of course, our old friend Opportunity Cost rears its ugly head. (Hello, Opportunity Cost. ) Those 96 hammers could've been ~2 catapults. Will those 2 catapults have a faster payback period than the forge? How do you know?  Another reason I love Civ4 is because it incentivizes juggling a dozen balls at once. Right now I'm building the Apostolic Palace and putting points into Priest specialists so I can soon build the Spiral Minaret. I don't think this is enough to close out the game, so I plan to attack Ginger. Chasing rabbits, and all that. I believe I need his land and the monk wonders to win.

So the question is, how do I eat him most efficiently without sacrificing my monk development?


I guess that pic spoils my AP construction date. No sniping please. Interestingly, Ginger is building a road segment beside a river, so maybe he's near Construction? Somebody researched Iron Working; I'd bet its him or Magic Science.* An immediate army of catapults and axes probably beats him, but he's still top power and has, at minimum, some 15 axes defending his north. I could swap into slavery to whip an army ASAP but at my city sizes, with my low food surplus, that's very expensive. Plus Serfdom is probably ~25% of my net gold savings? Efficiency. So I could wait for Crossbows, but the longer I wait, the closer Magic gets to Knights*, and he is my enemy. He's putting all his EP into me. He has attacked me twice. He disregards sacrosanct fish for fish. He'll want to attack me the moment I attack Ginger. So I probably can't wait for Crossbows. So I've got this uncomfortable timing where I need to grow to keep pace with Magic, but I need to eat Ginger ASAP. (A reminder that ASAP stands for "as soon as possible" not "right damn now.")

Lot of theory but what's the upshot? In my two frontline cities, Ankh-Morpork and Necromunda, I complete Forge and Temple and then just crank out units until I'm comfortable attacking. For what it's worth, this stuff is why I hate wonders. The Apostolic Palace is 400 hammers. I could've just built the wonder of Ten Aggressive Axes. Would that have been a better investment?

Before I forget, Bing decided to scare the shit out of me:


I forgot to take a pic with the correct visibility, but know that Bing has a galley on the square. When he already has a scout in my lands!!!  I don't think Bing is crazy per se. But I do think he plays the turn as it gets to him. "Ok, let's boot up PB 69. Oh neat I've got a loaded galley. Hey naufragar has an undefended city. Wouldn't it be funny if I burned it? I'm so troll-y." I've no reason to believe it's loaded. No reason to believe Bing wants to burn on of my cities, but I've got to act like he does. If he burns the soon to be founded furs city, oh well. It prevents the burning of Oar with its Moai. Damn it, Bing.

While we're on the subject of payback periods, Oar's Moai is a long term bet. I think I mentioned this back when I founded it, but this is my attempt to wring some use out of useless land. You can look at the first screenshot in this post. Notice anything about the color of the tiles? Now look at Bing's land, as a random example:


Notice anything different about the color?  If I didn't have the world's best shrine, if I didn't have Serfdom, I'd be dead. I haven't harped on this, but know that my land is absolute garbage. When developing, when conquering I have to be so stupidly efficient because I'm so damn poor.

*A note on Magic and his tech rate: He is as far from Knights as I am from Pikes, and he's in a golden age. Are we doomed? Feels like it. 

[scooter]

When trying to figure out how long it'll take for a Forge to pay for itself, I think it's definitely important to consider whip implications too rather than just looking at the base hammers.

[mackoti]

I thnk in this case is truh with the pasture being greener in other places. You rigt man your lad is depressing. Remember how nice was land in last game we played both...

[Krill]

I count 14 grassland tiles (none resource tiles, anyway) in that picture of Bings land, and...9 in yours total? And one of those is not workable?

Well that is some good quantitative evidence.

[naufragar]

And it's not just the accumulated weight of extra food, it's the tiny tile details, too. The highest commerce tile in my empire is a 1f/4c plains fur. The highest 2food commerce tile is a non-rivered grass village (2f/3c). Compare that with this:


Yes, Bing's Financial, but that doesn't exactly comfort me...

Speaking of things that don't comfort me:


Holy smokes. Magic is teching away from me, and I have to keep building soldiers to defend from Ginger.

I wonder what Ginger is going to do with all that power. I don't think those are Gallic Warriors that can two-turn my shrine. But maybe they are? Also shone in that graph is Gav's Praetorians absolutely annihilating Commodore's mostly axe army. It looks like my western border will be secure for a very long time...

[naufragar]

Test

I don't always declare wars, but when I do, I prefer they be against the player with the top power. 



(Remember, graphs are a turn delayed, so Ginger is in fact at a higher power than me.) Also visible on this graph is Magic Science shooting up. I'm 95% sure that this is Horseback Riding. This leaves him Feudalism & Guilds away from Knights (~2500 beakers). Meanwhile, I'm missing Iron Working and Engineering for Pikes (~1800 beakers). He's teching faster than me. Will I get Pikes in time? Can I afford to put beakers into Divine Right? 

But all of that is a problem for future naufragar. Right now, there's a war on. I moved my stack up to one of Ginger's border cities. He retreated his units and is consolidating.