[Spoilers] 0x49-y: Marxist-Joaoist Praxis

[Krill]

Given you are playing base BtS, since always.

[Oxyphenbutazone]

Thanks Krill, it had been over a decade since you last sardonically answered one of my rhetorical questions so I guess I was overdue

[Oxyphenbutazone]

This doesn't change too much tho, just have to get out an extra scientist in the double GA

[Oxyphenbutazone]

Tarkeel, can I get some clarity on whether Spies are banned in this game? We definitely banned active espionage missions:

Right, it's start simultaneous and then convert to sequential. Is that going to be a problem?

Also, seems like banning active espionage missions has enough support that we'll do that. Passive espionage will still be a factor of course, but we'll disallow doing active missions.

But it's unclear to me on what that means for using Spies for scouting purposes

[Tarkeel]

Tarkeel, can I get some clarity on whether Spies are banned in this game? We definitely banned active espionage missions:

Right, it's start simultaneous and then convert to sequential. Is that going to be a problem?

Also, seems like banning active espionage missions has enough support that we'll do that. Passive espionage will still be a factor of course, but we'll disallow doing active missions.

But it's unclear to me on what that means for using Spies for scouting purposes

Just the mapmaker, not an arbiter, but I did skim the first few pages of the tech thread. My understanding is that active missions are banned, and only that. So scouting with spies is available.

[Oxyphenbutazone]

Cool yeah I just wanted a second opinion without asking players

[Oxyphenbutazone]

More Thoughts on PB73 Geopolitics:

So the first principle I have here is that this game will not last very long. It's almost certain that either Scooter or I will win and we both know that. We already border each other and will have an even longer border once he eats Yuri. Any attempt by either of us to peacefully build up or annex territory from Luddite/Cairo will be incredibly vulnerable to a first strike from the other. So if Scooter and I are game theoretically ensured to go to war, when is the best time for me to fight?

Well if you look at the breakdown between us, right now I am definitely ahead with a better strategic situation and considerably higher CY/GNP. However, the long term strongly favors him:

1) Once he eats Yuri, he will have the same strategic advantage that I have with no neighbors on his core continent, but a much larger area to expand to
2) One of my key economic wonders (The Colossus) will have to obsoleted relatively soon while Scooter's (The Great Lighthouse) will last him until he has to research Corp for Assembly Line (read: forever)
3) Give that he has Calendar researched and the only connected marble source in the field, I have to assume he will build the MoM soon. This means a mid game GA cascade into Taj Mahal build is a clear win condition if he can get that far
4) With vikings + circumnav, he will have a considerable tactical advantage in any naval conflict fought at equal military tech
5) His FIN + SPI traits will only get more powerful over time, while my EXP + IMP provide almost no value going forward

On the other side, my only long term advantage over Scooter is The Kremlin, which, while formidable, won't be enough to outweigh everything he has going for him.

It's a classic Thucydides Trap, with my Sparta to scooter's Athens. if I wait for him to digest Yuri, research Astronomy + Chemistry and get into a hot war around T150, I will almost certainly lose. On the other hand, if I'm able to force an earlier conflict where I can set the terms of engagement and exploit my short term research advantage to come in with a military tech edge, then I have a very good shot at coming out ahead. And I wouldn't even have to conquer all of his territory. Given how far behind all other players are, crippling Scooter by razing half his cities should be enough to extract a concession.

So basically my blueprint for the rest of the game is that I will force an existential war with Scooter as soon as I can manage it. If Scooter is able to hold off my attacks with minimal losses, then his superior long term advantages will lead to him winning. If I am able to inflict massive pain on him, I will win. Either way, the game will be decided by around T140.

This assumption that there are only 50 turns left changes a lot of the normal calculus that goes into a civ game: new cottages become bad investments, the payoff on expensive infrastructure like universities or banks goes way down, the value of earlier Golden Ages goes way up, beakers from GP lightbulbs become much higher leverage. Based off of this, I think I have my plan:

I will invade Scooter on T120

Going into this conflict, I need to have a decisive naval edge which means Galleons and Frigates (it will take Scooter a while to get to Astro, but he can definitely do it before t120)

Following from that, my land army will be mostly composed of Knights, Musketmen and Catapults. Scooter will be able to field Longbows and maybe Muskets of his own, but if I have naval supremacy then equal land technology is surmountable.

In order to achieve this, I will need to research the following techs before T120:

Compass -> Optics -> Priesthood -> Monarchy -> Feudalism -> Guilds -> Horseback Riding -> Alphabet and Philosophy (to clear bulb paths) -> Calendar -> Astronomy -> Construction -> Gunpowder -> Engineering -> Chemistry

My next GP out of Hampstead is due T102. I will use that GP to trigger a GA, where I will then flip into Pacificism/Caste and get 2 more GP for another GA. That gives me 16 turns of Golden Ages, conveniently ending right before D-Day. At the end of this GA, I will flip into Police State/Vassalage/Slavery/State Property/Theocracy. Losing Rep + The Colossus will absolutely tank my research capabilities but if I'm able to cripple Scooter it won't matter.

Over the course of my double GA, I will need to birth 4 Great Scientists in addition to the 2 mixed GP marked for the 2nd GA. 1 scientist will bulb philosophy, 2 will bulb Astronomy, and the last will bulb part of Chemistry (it's possible I could push to get out 5 GS in which case I can double bulb chemistry as well, but 6 GPs is already pretty ambitious). The remaining technologies I will have to manually research.

Adding all of the remaining techs up we get 9810 beakers I will have to research from t92 to D-Day, which comes out to 8175 raw beakers dividing out the 1.2 single arrow bonus for each of these technologies [can someone confirm for me that this formula is correct? I assume game mechanic questions are kosher for lurkers to answer]. Ideally I can hit this target a little before T120 so I have time to get a round of frigates out first, so let's say I want to get all these techs researched by T117, 25 turns from now. This means that I have to average 327 bpt over those 25 turns. My current breakeven rate is 200 bpt, so this actually feels very doable and might mean I should aim for an even more aggressive D-Day plan.

While I'm in Caste System I won't be able to push military production too quickly, but by around T112 I should have all of the GPs I need so can switch back into slavery and start cranking out units. For land units I'll be building a lot of Knights, with some muskets mixed in for defensive bonuses and catapults for siege. Towards the end of the GA, I will bite the bullet and bulb Astronomy so I can levy a massive fleet of Galleons. Once Chemistry is in Frigates will be the priority, leaving Scooter unable to challenge me at sea and with no city defense bonuses to slow down my marines. Following D-Day I will set my research to Steel. Steel research will take too long for it to make sense to hold off on the invasion until it's in, but it does mean that I will have an incoming trump card if the conflict drags on past 10-15 turns.

Obviously a lot can change in the 30 turns before my D-Day, and it's definitely possible that Scooter sees where I'm going and try to preemptively invade me to disrupt these plans. But if I can execute on this plan, I'm pretty sure this game is mine.

I'm calling my shot. Within the next 50 turns the Viking Menace will be destroyed!

[Qgqqqqq]

Thanks for the update!

[T-hawk]

This is getting exciting, thanks for that read!

I believe you're correct about the arrow tech bonuses, 8175 base beakers x 1.2 if all of them have one arrow prerequisite = 9810. You'll also get a bit of known-tech bonus on Gunpowder and Guilds thanks to the civs who started with those

[Oxyphenbutazone]

Scooter takes down Yuri's capital, but has to raze it bc of Yuri's hovering cataphracts, I guess it also un-orphans the fish. Scooter's power spike has been impressive, he definitely has enough to finish Yuri off at this point. On the plus side, it's going to take him a fair bit of time to annex and begin to develop his new lands, at which point my frigates should be knocking on his door.

In other good news, Scooter and I exchanged a fish for fish with 25g on each side, implying a pesudo-NAP finishing right at t120. If I were Scooter and had full knowledge of my plans, I would declare war on me right away to try to disrupt my GA as much as possible before I can spawn the GPs to bulb down to astro/chemistry, but I imagine he'll want to go into builder mode after finally finishing up his game-long war with Yuri. I also just teched Optics this turn and will be whipping out a couple rounds of caravels for scouting and deterrence.

 

7 turns to GA, 25 turns to D-Day