Turn 198 (1380 AD)
When we were hunting for bankers last turn, we noticed Commodore had sent up a mini-stack towards Oslo after we played:
We judged that this was likely meant to draw out some of plemo's forces for a trade-off, and it looks like it worked. After plemo and Commodore played again, it looks like this:
Plemo attacked and killed the mini-stack, and Commodore burned Oslo with a fearsome fleet. This opens up a lot of land for resettling down the line. Meanwhile plemo is using the same tactics we did at Rococo: Stuff the city with just enough defenders for an assault to be costly, but not enough for catapult collateral to be viable. Note that if we remove the culture from Haithabu, the survivors outside former-Aarhus can be attacked with our reinforcements.
After bombarding the pinch knight only has 11%, so it's probably worth sending in some cats.
Catapult vs C2 Musket, 0.0%: Flawless loss
Catapult vs C2 Musket, 0.0%: Loss, but inflicting a round of damage
Catapult vs C2 Musket (8.0), 0.3%: Loss, but inflicting 4 rounds of damage
Catapult vs CG2 Musket (7.1), 3.8%: Loss, but inflicting 2 rounds of damage
C1 Pinch Knight vs C1 Musket (6.5), 84.6%: Loss
C1 Pinch Knight vs CG2 Musket (5.1), 86.7%: Win
C1 Pinch Knight vs G2 Musket (4.1), 91.2%: Win
C2 Knight vs Longbow (3.8), 98.7%: Win
G2 Crossbow vs C1 Musket (2.9), 97.4%: Win, capturing the city with 91g, a granary, and a mausoleum.
With the culture lifted, it's time to hit the other stack:
C2 Knight vs C2 Formation Knight (8.3), 50.0%: Loss
C2 Knight vs C2 War Elephant, 63.0%: Win
C2 Knight vs C2 Knight (8.3), 73.8%: Win
C1 Knight vs C2 War Elephant (5.7), 69.7%: Win
C1 Knight vs C1 War Elephant (4.2), 96.2%: Win
Knight vs C2 Formation War Elephant (2.2), 99.6%: Win
With the gold from the Haithabu we only need a 200g loan (to save us from saving for two turns), so we'll see if Magic wants our money.